Gold

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Iron
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Putting my trend follower hat off for a minute, if I had a gun to my head and had to take a position in the market, I'd go short on the daily chart, as there seems to be strong downward momentum (and no, I'm not going to attempt to define momentum! :lol: ).

Jeff
Iron
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How about you Andy?

If that were a Betfair chart, what would you do?

Jeff
andyfuller
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If it were a Betfair chart I would be looking at the ladder lol

I said earlier I would be buying now. From the chart view point I think being long has a higher probabilty of a successful outcome than being short, I would be putting in a stop around 1530 based off the low from the end of September of 1540, around 1470 looks like it could provide a good resistance level having held from around mid-april to end of July at that level. But I would guess having a stop that far off would be too wide?

(Those weren't my charts btw, I screen grabbed them off the IGIndex weekly webinar).

I sitll need to get some charting, tried the one you recommended on the thread about it and couldn't get them to work and nor could I on Ninja Trader :lol:

So reckon I will just open an account with IG and use their charts as from what I have seen of them I quite like them. At this stage I don't really care one bit if I call it wrong, tbh I would sooner be wrong as you tend to learn more from your mistakes I find. But I do find it good to play around and try things out and give views as I find you get more involved in it and learn more than just passively looking at the charts.

Lets see who turns out to be correct, me long or you short :lol:
Iron
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andyfuller wrote: If it were a Betfair chart I would be looking at the ladder lol
To clarify, do you not use the Bet Angel generated charts as well?
andyfuller wrote: I still need to get some charting,
Try this: http://www.igindex.co.uk/spread-betting ... nding.html

AFAIK, it's FOC if you place a single trade per month.
andyfuller wrote:Lets see who turns out to be correct, me long or you short :lol:
Remember that we could both be right and both lose money, if the market decides to enter a range and take out our stops out before we're in the green! :)

I once read that, about 80% of the time, markets are basically going nowhere!

Jeff
andyfuller
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I do have Betfair Style charts open on my screen and a 2second candle chart for the first 3 in the market.

I have looked at the IG stuff, it is free as long as you place two orders a month, so just a quick buy and sell and job done. Just got to get round to actually opening the account.

If you wait long enough we will both be right from the long/short view point but I can't be both right and wrong from what I have proposed as as you say I could be stopped out, to me if that happens even if it goes up long term I was not right as I called my trade incorrectly.
Iron
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“There are just four kinds of bets. There are good bets, bad bets, bets that you win, and bets that you lose. Winning a bad bet can be the most dangerous outcome of all, because a success of that kind can encourage you to take more bad bets in the future, when the odds will be running against you. You can also lose a good bet, no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”

Larry Hite (A trend following market wizard - And not the only one, btw!)

If your bet is a good bet but you lose, you haven't called your trade incorrectly...

Jeff
andyfuller wrote: I could be stopped out, to me if that happens even if it goes up long term I was not right as I called my trade incorrectly.
andyfuller
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I don't agree, you most have got something incorrect or you would have made on the trade not lost. So in the case above you were saying I could be stopped out before the trade went positive, that means to me that I called the entry incorrect on the trade so it was a bad trade. I may have got the move correct over a longer time frame but I would have misjudged my entry point. To me that is a bad incorrect trade.
andyfuller
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Ferru123 wrote:“....You can also lose a good bet, no matter how sound the underlying proposition, but if you keep placing good bets, over time, the law of averages will be working for you.”
I agree with what he is saying, it is the same on Betfair, as long as you make value bets and have a big enough bank you will come out on top as the probabilities are in your favour. But that isn't the same as calling a trade correctly. You must make money to call a trade correctly.
Iron
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andyfuller wrote:You most have got something incorrect or you would have made on the trade not lost.
Please tell me you're pulling my leg! :) With greatest respect, that's the kind of comment I'd expect from a newbie! :lol:

Every day on Betfair, you must have losing trades. So, I'd be willing to bet, does Peter. A losing trade doesn't mean you did anything wrong - it's a reflection of the uncertain world we live in!

I doubt you'll find a successful trader in the world with a 100% strike rate!

Jeff
Iron
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We're getting into semantic territory, but if you've traded in accordance with a long-term edge, you've made the correct call in my book, whether the trade made or lost you money...

Jeff
andyfuller wrote: I agree with what he is saying, it is the same on Betfair, as long as you make value bets and have a big enough bank you will come out on top as the probabilities are in your favour. But that isn't the same as calling a trade correctly. You must make money to call a trade correctly.
andyfuller
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Ferru123 wrote:Please tell me you're pulling my leg! :) With greatest respect, that's the kind of comment I'd expect from a newbie! :lol:

Every day on Betfair, you must have losing trades. So, I'd be willing to bet, does Peter. A losing trade doesn't mean you did anything wrong - it's a reflection of the uncertain world we live in!

I doubt you'll find a successful trader in the world with a 100% strike rate!
No not pulling your leg. Explain to me how you can be correct on that specific trade if you lost? Not over x number of trades, but that specific trade that lost money.

If the probabilities are on your side in the long term you will be correct more than you are wrong but that doesn't mean you were correct in every trade, if a trade costs you money you must have got something wrong.

Yes everyday I have losing trades, I enter those trades thinking I am going to be correct but also knowing that sometimes I will be incorrect. I take responsibility for my loss, I got it wrong, no one else, not the market not anyone but me.

Anyway, we aren't going to agree, so back to gold....
Iron
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Andy

You wrote that 'long term I was not right as I called my trade incorrectly'.

If you were trading with an edge, then long term you were right, in the sense of making trades that are likely to be profitable overall. As for calling a trade incorrectly, if your methodology was correct, then in a sense you called the trade correctly...

BTW, you seem to be equating getting most of your trades right with being profitable. Maybe that's the case with the way you trade on Betfair (and I don't mean that disparagingly), but you can have a 90% strike rate and lose money long-term, and a 10% strike rate and make money long-term. Most trend followers have a strike rate below 50%, but would probably disagree with the inference that they are wrong most of the time... :) They would say that they are neither right nor wrong, as the only thing they predict is that they have a long-term edge.

Jeff
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superfrank
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from a fundamental point of view I'm still very bullish on gold and silver (but I guess you'd expect me to say that!).

I don't take too much notice of the charts on either metal because they are highly manipulated (and there's a saying, "don't bet against the FED"). you only need to see the timing of the margin increases to know that.

central bankers hate gold rising in price because it makes them look bad. sooner or later all this monetising of debt is going to be reflected in better stores of value than government debt and paper.

bonds are the biggest bubble and the prices of US and UK bonds are only kept high because the FED and the BoE are buying. market manipulation always fails in the end and I fail to see why this time will be any different.

The Gold Price Took a Beating Today, Down 4.6%, Gold and Silver Remain in a Bull Market
http://silver-and-gold-prices.goldprice ... wn-46.html
Iron
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Gordon Brown's $22.5 billion blunder - http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/go ... gold-trade
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superfrank
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Gold, Inflation, Paul Krugman Challenge - Peter Schiff
http://www.europac.net/media/video_blog ... _challenge
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