Gold

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
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Iron
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I find analysis interesting too, but I wouldn't trade off it! :)

It would be a bit like betting money on a horse because I like the look of its form.

Jeff
superfrank wrote:I'm not I do have a view on fundamentals because I'm interested in economics and markets.
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superfrank
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2012 Top Trades of BOA - Buy Gold Versus Euro
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2012-top- ... ns-oil-250
Gold and the dollar are Bank of America Merrill Lynch’s top currency trades for 2012.

The second-biggest U.S. bank by assets after JPMorgan Chase & Co. said that investors should buy gold versus the euro as the ECB engages in quantitative easing to contain debt turmoil.

David Woo, global head of rates and currencies in New York at the Bank of America Corp. unit, told clients in research note that “the ECB will be buying more government debt and doing QE, so buy gold against the euro.”

“The second major theme is U.S. fiscal tightening is about to come and the U.S. economy will slow, and this will be very good for the U.S. dollar.”

“The general theme for the year ahead is pretty negative for the risk environment,” Woo said.
I wonder what Buffet thinks of his bank tipping the "barbarous relic"?!

From March:
Why Warren Buffett Hates Gold
http://www.zerohedge.com/article/why-wa ... hates-gold
If you took all the gold in the world, it would form a cube 67 feet on a side, worth $7 trillion.
Iron
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The bubble may have come to an end...

Jeff
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andyfuller
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Ferru123 wrote:The bubble may have come to an end...

Jeff
The long term trend is still well in tact though isn't it so as a Trend Follower would you not be looking to follow that?
superfrank wrote:Keep buying the dips.
Are you buying in these current dips? My personal view for the very little it is worth and from a complete lack of knowledge base would be to buy the dips = queue massive dive :lol:
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Last edited by andyfuller on Thu Dec 15, 2011 6:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Iron
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andyfuller wrote: The long term trend is still well in tact though isn't it so as a Trend Follower would you not be looking to follow that?
Define 'long term trend'. You can't expect to get away with such imprecise language when talking to a trend follower! ;) :lol:

I was writing as someone with an interest in the markets, not as a trend follower. Whether a trend follower would still be long on gold depends on their entry and exit criteria. If they were trading the daily chart, then they'd probably have exited by now, but not necessarily if they were trading the monthly chart...

Remember that trend following doesn't predict; it merely reacts.

Remember also that there are trends within trends within trends! ;)

Jeff
andyfuller
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Ferru123 wrote: Define 'long term trend'. You can't expect to get away with such imprecise language when talking to a trend follower! ;) :lol:
My mistake, didn't realise I had cut off the time axis. Have edited the above post and put in new images with the time axis.
andyfuller
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Ferru123 wrote: I was writing as someone with an interest in the markets, not as a trend follower. Whether a trend follower would still be long on gold depends on their entry and exit criteria. If they were trading the daily chart, then they'd probably have exited by now, but not necessarily if they were trading the monthly chart...

Remember that trend following doesn't predict; it merely reacts.

Remember also that there are trends within trends within trends! ;)
I assumed you were talking from your usual trend following view point but obviously not, more an observation.

Surely by reacting to a trend you are predicting or else how do you open a position? As when you open a position are you not saying this is going to go up or go down?

From your trending view point what would you do at the moment? Long, Short or do nothing?
Iron
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From a trend following perspective, what you do right now depends on your entry and exit criteria and the timeframe you're trading...

Let's say I'm trading the daily timeframe. I go short at the open of the next day's trading when the market closes a day below the 35 and 95 period moving averages. I close my trade when the market closes above the 35 MA. Vice versa for going long.

According to the attached chart, I should be going short...

Jeff
andyfuller wrote: My mistake, didn't realise I had cut off the time axis. Have edited the above post and put in new images with the time axis.
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Iron
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...and, according to those same randomly selected criteria, I'd be about to exit the market if I were trading the weekly chart (unless it finishes the week above the 35 MA line)...

Jeff
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andyfuller
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andyfuller wrote: From your trending view point what would you do at the moment? Long, Short or do nothing?
Ferru123 wrote:From a trend following perspective, what you do right now depends on your entry and exit criteria and the timeframe you're trading...
I was meaning what would you do now based on the market, so if you currently are long are you still holding? Are you looking at buying the dips (Super Frank?)? Are you unsure what is going to happen and as such don't have a view either long or short. Basically what is your opinion of the market in terms of what is it going to do. Just trying to spark a bit of debate as I find it a good way to learn as it makes you look at things from a different view point.

So, from what you have said you would be short, correct?
Ferru123 wrote:According to the attached chart, I should be going short...
Ferru123 wrote:I'd be about to exit the market if I were trading the weekly chart
Iron
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Putting my trend follower hat off for a minute, if I had a gun to my head and had to take a position in the market, I'd go short on the daily chart, as there seems to be strong downward momentum (and no, I'm not going to attempt to define momentum! :lol: ).

Jeff
Iron
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How about you Andy?

If that were a Betfair chart, what would you do?

Jeff
andyfuller
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If it were a Betfair chart I would be looking at the ladder lol

I said earlier I would be buying now. From the chart view point I think being long has a higher probabilty of a successful outcome than being short, I would be putting in a stop around 1530 based off the low from the end of September of 1540, around 1470 looks like it could provide a good resistance level having held from around mid-april to end of July at that level. But I would guess having a stop that far off would be too wide?

(Those weren't my charts btw, I screen grabbed them off the IGIndex weekly webinar).

I sitll need to get some charting, tried the one you recommended on the thread about it and couldn't get them to work and nor could I on Ninja Trader :lol:

So reckon I will just open an account with IG and use their charts as from what I have seen of them I quite like them. At this stage I don't really care one bit if I call it wrong, tbh I would sooner be wrong as you tend to learn more from your mistakes I find. But I do find it good to play around and try things out and give views as I find you get more involved in it and learn more than just passively looking at the charts.

Lets see who turns out to be correct, me long or you short :lol:
Iron
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andyfuller wrote: If it were a Betfair chart I would be looking at the ladder lol
To clarify, do you not use the Bet Angel generated charts as well?
andyfuller wrote: I still need to get some charting,
Try this: http://www.igindex.co.uk/spread-betting ... nding.html

AFAIK, it's FOC if you place a single trade per month.
andyfuller wrote:Lets see who turns out to be correct, me long or you short :lol:
Remember that we could both be right and both lose money, if the market decides to enter a range and take out our stops out before we're in the green! :)

I once read that, about 80% of the time, markets are basically going nowhere!

Jeff
andyfuller
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I do have Betfair Style charts open on my screen and a 2second candle chart for the first 3 in the market.

I have looked at the IG stuff, it is free as long as you place two orders a month, so just a quick buy and sell and job done. Just got to get round to actually opening the account.

If you wait long enough we will both be right from the long/short view point but I can't be both right and wrong from what I have proposed as as you say I could be stopped out, to me if that happens even if it goes up long term I was not right as I called my trade incorrectly.
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