Gold

Long, short, Bitcoin, forex - Plenty of alternate market disuccsion.
Post Reply
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Looks like the gold bubble may be about to burst.

It's already about 15% down on a few weeks ago...

Jeff
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Almost a head and shoulders pattern?
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

It's also a double top (the picture is of a different instrument, just in case anyone't thinking it doesn't look like the current gold chart!).

Jeff
Euler wrote:Almost a head and shoulders pattern?
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Gold and silver plunging again this morning. It's a rout for anybody long at these elevated prices and a windfall for anybody short. Every market has it's price.

I fancy an inflation play on bonds.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

There's an interesting pattern forming on gold today, suggesting that a reversal may be imminent. It may be that the downward momentum has come to a halt, and people are panicing to get out of their short positions.

I don't trade reversals, but if I did, I'd go long and place a stop just below the most recent low, and see where the market goes...

Jeff
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Looks like some silver will be rising very soon: -

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-15061868
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Andrew_Mag ... eblower%29
Andrew Maguire is an independent bullion trader and a whistleblower. He notified United States regulators that fraud had been committed, manipulating prices in the international gold and silver markets. Maguire and his wife were injured in a hit-and-run accident a day after he was identified as the source of the allegations.
According to Maguire, the precious metals markets trade "pretty much in tandem", but because the silver market is so much smaller, it is harder to disguise one's activities and therefore easier to figure out who is behind a manipulative event. After Bear Stearns and their short silver positions were acquired by JPMorgan, manipulative events in the silver market became more frequent. Maguire decided to inform the CFTC. He contacted commissioner Bart Chilton, who had Eliud Ramirez, a senior investigator from the CFTC's enforcement division, get in touch with Maguire. Maguire explained the manipulations in great detail, both over the phone in an hour-long interview and afterward, in a series of e-mails with screen shots.

Maguire then predicted a manipulative event in the silver market and gave detailed information in an e-mail to the CFTC about what to expect, sending it on February 3, 2010, two days prior to the event. The event transpired exactly as Maguire predicted. While the event was taking place, Maguire sent e-mails in real time, pointing out certain details because the CFTC enforcement seemed not to know what to look for or how to interpret the data.
Silver: Assessing The Damage And Looking Ahead
http://seekingalpha.com/article/295700- ... king-ahead
The sharp sell off comes with the territory with silver. While the -22% decline over two trading days was certainly jarring, it is a characteristic of the very high risk associated with owning silver. For example, this marks the 19th time in the last five years that silver has posted a double-digit decline over two trading days.
hmmm!!
User avatar
Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Is somebody manipulating the gold market?

http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-adv ... rket-55628
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Euler wrote:Is somebody manipulating the gold market?

http://www.moneyweek.com/investment-adv ... rket-55628
Commodity futures markets have always been open to manipulation.

Image

This book is a great read and describes lots of dodgy happenings in the early days with people trying to corner markets and all sorts of skullduggery.

I guess for those trading commodities based on some sort of fundamental view that the this sort of thing can create lots of opportunities.

Silver fell 43% in less than 3 days (to $26 intraday on Monday) before bouncing about 20%.
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

(from Sept 26) Silver Arrow's Groenewegen on Gold, Silver Prices
http://www.bloomberg.com/video/76143172/
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Keep buying the dips. The last fall was engineered when it threatened to go exponential. Central banks (western) will be happy unless that happens and imho there's no danger of any serious break of 1600.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

You know my views on fundamental analysis, so I won't repeat them, but if there were ever a time not to invest, this is it!

There are just way too many unknown variables. I'm not sure anyone - even Frau Merkel - knows how things are going to pan out in the coming days and weeks...

If you must invest, my tip is to buy tinned food. You can always eat it if the economy picks up! :lol:
superfrank wrote:Keep buying the dips.
andyfuller
Posts: 4619
Joined: Wed Mar 25, 2009 12:23 pm

I listened to the weekly IG Index webinar yesterday and David Jones who takes it said he expects gold to test the $2,000 mark relatively soon.

If you go to his Twitter you can find the link to the recording and hear his views in the first 20mins or so.
User avatar
superfrank
Posts: 2762
Joined: Fri Aug 14, 2009 8:28 pm

Ferru123 wrote:You know my views on fundamental analysis, so I won't repeat them, but if there were ever a time not to invest, this is it!
I don't understand you sometimes Jeff, you mock both technical and fundamental analysis yet are seemingly a devotee of trend following which essentially relies a combination of the 2!
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Strictly speaking, trend following is a form of technical analysis, but a trend follower would sooner put his balls in a vice than use fundamental analysis! :lol:

And yes, I know you said 'relies on' rather than 'uses', but trend followers neither know nor care what the long-term outlook of a company is, or if interest rates are likely to remain on hold...

Fundamental analysis is a bit like betting on a horse using form analysis. Even if you know everything in the public domain about that horse, and know how to interpret that information, you don't know for sure if the market knows something that you don't (such as the possibility that the jockey will be so distracted by a brown envelope that someone handed him before the race that he'll forget whether he's whipped the horse more times than allowed)... ;)

Jeff
superfrank wrote: I don't understand you sometimes Jeff, you mock both technical and fundamental analysis yet are seemingly a devotee of trend following which essentially relies a combination of the 2!
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Financial markets”