Photon wrote:In order to replicate his success you need to spend time and effort in understanding how, why and when market moves and profiting from placing trades that profit from that.
You don't need to understand the why markets move or when they move (although those things do interest me on an intellectual level).
All you need to understand are the simple techniques needed to exploit market inefficiencies (and equally importantly, the psychological strength to remain disciplined!).
Photon wrote:You may not be able to predict what the market will do as long as you confidence that you will be on the right side of the market move on more occasions than not than that will be generate profit.
Pure trend followers don't predict - they react. Their long-term strike rate is below 50%.
But if you lose 1 tick every time you're wrong, and make 5 ticks every time the market goes in your favour, it doesn't matter... Those are purely hypothetical numbers, btw.
I know one highly successful guy who goes counter-trend on Betfair, and his strike rate is 40%, but his winners more than pay for his losers.
Photon wrote:In terms of making 5% on his hedge fund is nothing of significance to anybody apart from
There's a reason why Harding grew his business fund from having £100 million under management a few years ago to being the seventh richest hedge fund manager in the Sunday Times Rich List (http://www.therichest.org/nation/sunday ... list-2011/
My guess is that the performance of his fund over the years has been of significance to people other than just himself...