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Postby hgodden » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:06 pm

Yeah maybe he'll double up!

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Postby Ferru123 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:08 pm

There's an expression in trend following: 'Losers average losers' http://www.turtletrader.com/losers-average-losers.html (Not meant as a dig at anyone, btw!)

I'd let the trend run its course before I even considered a trade...

Jeff

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Postby andyfuller » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:13 pm

Ferru123 wrote:I'd let the trend run its course before I even considered a trade...


What trend are you referring to? And what is your indicator it has run its course?

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Postby Ferru123 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:17 pm

I must admit I've been lazy and not looked at the charts, but my guess is that the shares Lord Sugar bought were and are in a downward trend on the daily timeframe.

You can use any of a number of indicators - it's up to you. One I like is the Donchian Channel, which basically tells you when the price has reached a high or low point for the past x number of days.

Jeff

andyfuller wrote:What trend are you referring to? And what is your indicator it has run its course?

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Postby Ferru123 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:29 pm

PS The daily chart for Barclays below has 35 and 95 period moving averages. You could chose not to go long until those moving averages cross over.

But common sense should have told Lord Sugar that the price was dropping like a rock, and was therefore likely to drop further...

Jeff

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Postby Euler » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:30 pm

You're a total bloody shambles, you lost me money. You're fired! :lol:

When the banks did this debt for equity swap it really killed them as an investment as it diluted things so much. There is a long way to go for them to come back but they may we worth a speculative punt if you are happy to see them half in value (or more) first. I reckon they will re-capitalise when the markets stablise so that may see your holding diluted even more. Not a great purchase.

If I did buy it would be something like HSBC which is still strong.

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Postby andyfuller » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:41 pm

They were just saying on CNBC that an unnamed European Bank took up the ECB on their offer of a loan which has been around for a while but not taken. They had to borrow $500m in the last few days.

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Postby andyfuller » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:44 pm

Also isn't Short selling on European banks still banned for the time being?

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Postby Ferru123 » Thu Aug 18, 2011 6:46 pm

I think it only applies to some countries.

Even though short selling is banned, non-short selling isn't however...

Jeff

andyfuller wrote:Also isn't Short selling on European banks still banned for the time being?

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Postby andyfuller » Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:01 pm

Ferru123 wrote:I think it only applies to some countries.

Even though short selling is banned, non-short selling isn't however...

Jeff


It is a 15 day ban which started Friday 12th August and ends Friday 26th August and is in place in France, Italy, Spain and Belgium.

My point was that the falls would probably be even greater if there was no ban.

Last edited by andyfuller on Thu Aug 18, 2011 7:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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