Hi Everyone,
I've finally got the hang of reading the market, I've found my edge!! My discipline when entering and exiting the market is great. My strike rate is high, around 80-85%. My only problem is the few races I lose are enough to wipe out my profit on the whole days racing.
My problem is staking based on the volatility of the current market and or race type.
I'm aware that novices, maidens etc are pretty volatile and handicaps are less volatile. However, I've come across maidens that barely move and handicaps that swing massively. I'm not really clued up on horse racing as a sport, but I'm getting there.
I always adjust my stake depending on price, but I also like to adjust my stake based on market volatility. I'll use smaller stakes on more volatile markets so I have more room for the market to move against me and not lose a huge amount if it doesn't look like it will return (risk reward). However, I get caught out sometimes with a big move thinking the market is a safer market.
How I work out my staking thus far is to predefine how much I'm willing to lose, then to judge how far the market could move against me momentarily before behaving how I predicted. so eg £10 risk over 5 ticks would be £2 a tick.
what methods/rules do you use to judge your stakes and market volatility?
As I'm writing this I'm starting to think more logically and almost answering my own question but my thinking is these factors play a role...
1) form.
are handicaps with a lower rating more volatile?
maidens that already have some races ran are less volatile than maidens running for the 1st time?
dose age play a role?
2) Volume
how much has been matched 10 mins- 5mins before the off?
how much liquidity in the book?
fill rate?
3)graph/range
how much has it moved previously?
what range has it traded in?
and what volume has traded in that range?
so to conclude, how do you judge the volatility of the race? are there different aspects of maidens and handicaps that make them more or less volatile?
thanks
Darren
race quality and staking
Hi Darren,
I had the same problem as you when I started trading, I was generally breaking even but only because my loses (some of them substantial) were wiping out all my profits. This was largely down to over staking and it was only when I got the hang of limiting my liabilities that I started to make money.
Maiden's and low-grade races are generally much more volatile and can also be very weak - it's all well and good laying a horse for £50 when the price springs upwards, but it's not much use if you can only back it for £2 !
I'll tell you something that I found really useful. Of course, it goes without saying that any serious trader will keep accurate records of all his/her market results, but I keep my records in a database so I can produce reports (or league tables) of my profit/loss on a meeting by meeting basis. When I first looked at my results by meeting, the result was quite startling. There were some meetings where I had a 100% success record in 20+ markets, and there were others where I was losing nearly all the time!
Investigating the reasons why you're doing badly at a particular meeting (you could easily do the same for race type) is another matter, but it does at least alert you before you start trading on a bad meeting. I concluded that I was applying a similar stratagy to markets of varying volatitity/liquidity, and some meetings had more stable markets that suited my scalping or short-swing style, while others were disasterous and I've had to adjust the size of my swing to the market.
I think you've got the right idea about judging how far the market could go against you and calculating your liability. This is largely how I've manage to avoid disasters, and I found that smaller stakes gave me more leeway to give the market a chance to move where I want, before closing trade.
The most crucial thing about opening a trade is balancing how far you see it going against you (or where your stop-loss is) with how far it's likely to go in your favour.
Good luck,
Derek
I had the same problem as you when I started trading, I was generally breaking even but only because my loses (some of them substantial) were wiping out all my profits. This was largely down to over staking and it was only when I got the hang of limiting my liabilities that I started to make money.
Maiden's and low-grade races are generally much more volatile and can also be very weak - it's all well and good laying a horse for £50 when the price springs upwards, but it's not much use if you can only back it for £2 !
I'll tell you something that I found really useful. Of course, it goes without saying that any serious trader will keep accurate records of all his/her market results, but I keep my records in a database so I can produce reports (or league tables) of my profit/loss on a meeting by meeting basis. When I first looked at my results by meeting, the result was quite startling. There were some meetings where I had a 100% success record in 20+ markets, and there were others where I was losing nearly all the time!
Investigating the reasons why you're doing badly at a particular meeting (you could easily do the same for race type) is another matter, but it does at least alert you before you start trading on a bad meeting. I concluded that I was applying a similar stratagy to markets of varying volatitity/liquidity, and some meetings had more stable markets that suited my scalping or short-swing style, while others were disasterous and I've had to adjust the size of my swing to the market.
I think you've got the right idea about judging how far the market could go against you and calculating your liability. This is largely how I've manage to avoid disasters, and I found that smaller stakes gave me more leeway to give the market a chance to move where I want, before closing trade.
The most crucial thing about opening a trade is balancing how far you see it going against you (or where your stop-loss is) with how far it's likely to go in your favour.
Good luck,
Derek
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iambic_pentameter
- Posts: 443
- Joined: Wed May 18, 2016 1:24 pm
Hi Ginger8585
"I've finally got the hang of reading the market, I've found my edge!! My discipline when entering and exiting the market is great. My strike rate is high, around 80-85%. My only problem is the few races I lose are enough to wipe out my profit on the whole days racing"
Respectfully, I would suggest that if you are losing enough to wipe out your profits on a whole days racing, then your discipline at exiting isn't as strict as it should be.
I should add, I'm not saying that to sound clever or superior - I know from my own experience
In terms of volatility, you could look at the Risk Meter in Bet Angel and see whether it shows the race is likely to volatile.
The most important factor, is to watch the money coming into the market and if you see your position going against you, get out. The only time you wouldn't get out, is if you have a strong reason for staying in i.e. experience tells you this is a price spike and will come back to where it was.
Another useful tactic is to perhaps only trade specific race types; some traders may target those races where the price on the favourite is under 3.0 or others may trade competitive handicaps.
Sometimes in can be a simple case of less is more.
Finally, as Peter Webb has said in many a video:
"For every market there is a strategy and for every strategy there is a market"
Best of luck,
Iambic
"I've finally got the hang of reading the market, I've found my edge!! My discipline when entering and exiting the market is great. My strike rate is high, around 80-85%. My only problem is the few races I lose are enough to wipe out my profit on the whole days racing"
Respectfully, I would suggest that if you are losing enough to wipe out your profits on a whole days racing, then your discipline at exiting isn't as strict as it should be.
I should add, I'm not saying that to sound clever or superior - I know from my own experience
In terms of volatility, you could look at the Risk Meter in Bet Angel and see whether it shows the race is likely to volatile.
The most important factor, is to watch the money coming into the market and if you see your position going against you, get out. The only time you wouldn't get out, is if you have a strong reason for staying in i.e. experience tells you this is a price spike and will come back to where it was.
Another useful tactic is to perhaps only trade specific race types; some traders may target those races where the price on the favourite is under 3.0 or others may trade competitive handicaps.
Sometimes in can be a simple case of less is more.
Finally, as Peter Webb has said in many a video:
"For every market there is a strategy and for every strategy there is a market"
Best of luck,
Iambic
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Ginger8585
- Posts: 11
- Joined: Wed Nov 16, 2016 10:09 pm
Guys,
Sorry for then late reply but I come bearing good news. Since you're feedback I've profitable every single day. So thank you both, it was very helpful. my problem was not watching the market long enough to predefined a proper risk/reward ratio based on the price action.
I put all my records on excel and also found this great post on betfair spreadsheet
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=133
This information became very useful
I took your advice Iambic and only trade races around 3.5 and below based on my results analysis, Dependant on market behaviour. I'm no longer worried about volatility, in fact I welcome it to achieve the swings. My staking has improved so I'm not caught out by big moves away from my position. Also you were right I wasn't disciplined enough with my exiting. After watching the price action and building a better picture of the market I predefine an area to exit if it goes in either direction. Now my problem is being over cautious and exiting part of, or all of my trade too early through fear of a reversal. I'm aware of it and working to improve it.
All in all I'm making progress. I'm in profit and now I just need to maximise that profit potential.
Thanks
Darren
Sorry for then late reply but I come bearing good news. Since you're feedback I've profitable every single day. So thank you both, it was very helpful. my problem was not watching the market long enough to predefined a proper risk/reward ratio based on the price action.
I put all my records on excel and also found this great post on betfair spreadsheet
viewtopic.php?f=54&t=133
This information became very useful
I took your advice Iambic and only trade races around 3.5 and below based on my results analysis, Dependant on market behaviour. I'm no longer worried about volatility, in fact I welcome it to achieve the swings. My staking has improved so I'm not caught out by big moves away from my position. Also you were right I wasn't disciplined enough with my exiting. After watching the price action and building a better picture of the market I predefine an area to exit if it goes in either direction. Now my problem is being over cautious and exiting part of, or all of my trade too early through fear of a reversal. I'm aware of it and working to improve it.
All in all I'm making progress. I'm in profit and now I just need to maximise that profit potential.
Thanks
Darren