1.01 loser stats

The sport of kings.
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hoodie07
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 11:53 am

How can laying 1.01 be profitable in the long term? Unless you varry stakes, or look to trade the bounce I just think that you would struggle to turn a profit?? Thoughts?
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

June was one of the best month.
I had 2 horses matched at 1.01 24 times for a total of 18493 matched and return of 31674 out of 1241 races.
July has not been as good as June expect for monday the 9th of July with 3 1.01 losers out 26 races.
hoodie07
Posts: 17
Joined: Tue Apr 17, 2012 11:53 am

Interesting. Do you just blanket lay the field at those prices or look at stats like the link above?
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

There are also 1.01 winner which are profitable but you must be around to close on photofinish. Sometimes the market reopen waiting the official results or stewards enquiry and sometime the horse which already hit 1,01 bounce back to 1,02 to 1,2. However I lay every single races at those odds. I am not as good as my mentor at trading so I have found alternative edges...The 1,01 is quite known so I dont mind to share it...
hoodie07 wrote:
giulio2010 wrote:June was one of the best month.
I had 2 horses matched at 1.01 24 times for a total of 18493 matched and return of 31674 out of 1241 races.
July has not been as good as June expect for monday the 9th of July with 3 1.01 losers out 26 races.

Interesting. Do you just blanket lay the field at those prices or look at stats like the link above?
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Euler
Posts: 24701
Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 1:39 pm
Location: Bet Angel HQ

Most people laying at 1.01 get in as the market is created on Betfair and keep those bets into the race. So that is where the real action is rather than seeing the opportunity to lay at 1.01. It's all about getting matched first.
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

True.......not always you get matched unfortunaly..
Euler wrote:Most people laying at 1.01 get in as the market is created on Betfair and keep those bets into the race. So that is where the real action is rather than seeing the opportunity to lay at 1.01. It's all about getting matched first.
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gutuami
Posts: 1858
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 4:06 pm

for all the dreamers of getting their lay stake matched @1.01 every single time and for others :lol:
I had to cut out 2009 and 2010 as the maximum allowed size for attachments is 1 MB
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
BengalV
Posts: 3
Joined: Tue May 01, 2012 9:28 pm

WOW! I can now programme a bot to lay everything at 1.01 and make £3k a year from £1 bets! :lol:

Unfortunately some will believe this is actually possible. Good work on spreadsheet but I think a few key items are missing. Most importantly amount matched and % of amount in market matched. Any chance of adding this?

My thought is that the horses that match at 1.01 but then lose are only at that price for a split second and very little of orders in market matched, leaving a lot of unmatched bets.

With an edge of only 32 winning bets out of 7000, it wouldnt take many unmatched losing 1.01s and "if only I had been matched" to eat into the profits.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

Are you certain it isn't? I'm not saying it is, but I keep an open mind...

For years, there have been significant lay orders in the market pre-off at prices below 2.0 on every horse in the race. Maybe it's a losing strategy, but you have to wonder why it's something you see in race after race, year after year.

Jeff
BengalV wrote:WOW! I can now programme a bot to lay everything at 1.01 and make £3k a year from £1 bets! :lol:

Unfortunately some will believe this is actually possible.
legendz
Posts: 145
Joined: Wed Jan 25, 2012 11:57 am
Location: Middleton St George

I lay the field under 2.0 , i wont say what prices it will give away my edge , it took alot of time to work out which odds to use and what races to trade if you go in on every race you will lose imo, it turns a nice profit its all automated so its all good , if you have your stakes to high you probs wont get matched also Peter is correct the earlier you get your bets in the better , but as mugs always says be selective some tracks are different to others as is field size, race length, weather ,race type , if you put in the work you'll get the rewards.
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3virgul14
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 8:28 am
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I have checked the excel file and seems like 13th of January, FRIDAY! has been an interesting day, 10 races out of 30 had a 1.01 loser, 7 coming from course Wolverhampton.. Coincidence? Hell yeah :)
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gazuty
Posts: 2547
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am
Location: Green land :)

Too many people already know this strategy.

Looking at every race today in both the win and the place markets shows about £4,000 at 1.01 for each horse in the win market and £1,000 (sometimes down at £600) in the place market.

There is a site with the matched volume for every 1.01 loser in 2009 - http://www.gubbage.com/losers

While the overall stats give you a positive E(x) for 1.01 losers - you won't find a positive E(x) if you are following the first £4,000 in each race.

So you need to be the first layer. Of course, it has already been pointed out - you won't be, because there are bots that already have this anomaly sown up.
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

It does not matter if many already know the strategy, many people will leave it after 2-3 unsuccesfull days. No everyone have the time to do it and not every one can afford to go 4 consecutive weeks without a win. That's the difference. Someelse pointed out that it only takes a split second before the price come back up,I disagree with that... most of the time 1,01 stay there long enough to ge matched and sometime the reverse strategy triggered by bots keep the 1,01 even longer. Yesterday on one of the 1st races of the day ( Ayr, southwell or cartmel? ) the winner got matched @ 1,01 twice during the race. 2f left 1,01 1f left 2/1 and at end 1,01 again. Only people that are around and manage to close manually can increase a bit more their chances...
giulio2010
Posts: 962
Joined: Sun Sep 12, 2010 9:11 am

As we speak Raheeba @ Muss.. from 1,01 to 2,0 but won on photofinish.....the market reopened @ 1,2..
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