Scalpy by Psychoff

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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xitian
Posts: 457
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

max_usted wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?
If you think about it, if the score is currently 1-0, then trading CS 1-0 and U1.5 is exactly the same thing. Backing either results in a loss if a goal goes in, or a win if there are no goals, and vice versa for laying. The prices should be identical. Often the prices might be slightly difference, but rarely (if ever) would there be a opportunity for arbitrage. You would pick one market over the other if either it gave you better odds or there was more liquidity, but aside from that, they are identical if there has been 1 goal already.

I expect Psychoff is just trading these markets using a signal for whether there is going to be another goal soon or not. If there is a signal for a goal soon, then lay. You pay a premium as the time decays with no goal, but win if a goal goes in. If there's a signal for no goal, then you back, gain profit slowly due to time decay, and then trade out if the signal switches to a potential goal coming.

As for how he gets his signals, I think he probably has live match data for things like shots on goal, corners, possession, etc... then feeds that into an algorithm to determine if a goal is more or less likely than the market is implying.
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3virgul14
Posts: 84
Joined: Wed May 26, 2010 8:28 am
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As an insider, I can tell : you have BINGO my friend!

xitian wrote:
Thu Jul 27, 2017 12:49 pm
max_usted wrote:
Wed Jul 26, 2017 2:47 pm
Amazing results from Psychoff's scalpy bot - his Twitter feed is always very interesting to read and in a recent Tweet he wrote of it:

:Scalpy trades in the under and CS markets. If the score is 1-0, then it trades in under 1,5 and CS 1-0"

What do people think this involves - is this something like arbing between these two markets as time decays? Or using one of the markets as a hedge against a goal being scored while a back bet is open in the other market? First of these two options seems more likely?
If you think about it, if the score is currently 1-0, then trading CS 1-0 and U1.5 is exactly the same thing. Backing either results in a loss if a goal goes in, or a win if there are no goals, and vice versa for laying. The prices should be identical. Often the prices might be slightly difference, but rarely (if ever) would there be a opportunity for arbitrage. You would pick one market over the other if either it gave you better odds or there was more liquidity, but aside from that, they are identical if there has been 1 goal already.

I expect Psychoff is just trading these markets using a signal for whether there is going to be another goal soon or not. If there is a signal for a goal soon, then lay. You pay a premium as the time decays with no goal, but win if a goal goes in. If there's a signal for no goal, then you back, gain profit slowly due to time decay, and then trade out if the signal switches to a potential goal coming.

As for how he gets his signals, I think he probably has live match data for things like shots on goal, corners, possession, etc... then feeds that into an algorithm to determine if a goal is more or less likely than the market is implying.
xitian
Posts: 457
Joined: Fri Jul 08, 2011 2:08 pm

Oh. I better delete my post and start implementing! :lol:
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BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

He is probably using a piece of automated software (i wont name it)

This site gives you live inplay soccer stats on everything you can think of.

Obviously its not the holy grail but it can give you certain market edges.
stu410
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 10:34 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Thu Jul 27, 2017 9:04 pm
He is probably using a piece of automated software (i wont name it)

This site gives you live inplay soccer stats on everything you can think of.

Obviously its not the holy grail but it can give you certain market edges.
Stay simple because he is soccer master..costum algoritm and he have a computer programmer partner.
max_usted
Posts: 133
Joined: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:07 pm

Wow interesting - just wondering if anyone would be able to give a few tips on the best source for live/in-play football data, and what the price would normally be? Is it only/normally available through providers such as https://www.stats.com/??
deansaccount
Posts: 120
Joined: Mon May 30, 2016 5:19 pm

I noticed his bot made a loss for July, which is odd as it performed well the previous month, but I guess the leagues need to get started and settle down a little.
stu410
Posts: 97
Joined: Sat May 05, 2012 10:34 pm

https://twitter.com/psychofftrading/sta ... 9658686465

last 30 days.

soccer ...€ 65.0.41.74

Awesome number...
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Think he mainly does manual trading that £65K isn't from his bot, still decent figures though, at least Betfair will have a decent xmas party with all our PC charges for doing f all
Trader Pat
Posts: 4327
Joined: Tue Oct 25, 2016 12:50 pm

I'm pretty sure he said somewhere on twitter that 'scalpy' was being mothballed for now because he couldnt replicate the results and the system was starting to suffer losses.

Pretty sure the P&L he posted would be manual trading.
maycontainnuts
Posts: 88
Joined: Wed Oct 10, 2012 5:58 pm

Very vague image, why is the date scrubbed out if it's the last 30? Old screenshot maybe?

The only footy trader I knew that was profitable to a decent amount was trading using fast pictures. I'm guessing that what Psychoff is doing. Probably not best to boast too much then.
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psychoff
Posts: 91
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Hi everybody,

I want to post an update for those who doesnt follow me on twitter.

Scalpy is still running but I have to say that I have mostly lost my excitement about the project. Its 3 months P&L is nearly zero just generating some commission for BF. Thanks for those who supported me from the beginning.

Best of luck as always;)
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psychoff
Posts: 91
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 2:52 pm
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Hi again,

Short note about Scalpy: Project suspended at the end of 2018.

I decided to be more active in the BA forum so if you have any questions, comments about football trading, please feel free to post here.

Regards,

P
madgoose1
Posts: 16
Joined: Tue Sep 01, 2015 5:17 pm

looking forward to reading your input again in this forum after the other places i have read your posts. :)
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Dallas
Posts: 22673
Joined: Sun Aug 09, 2015 10:57 pm
Location: Working From Home

psychoff wrote:
Sun Jun 30, 2019 8:06 pm
Hi again,

Short note about Scalpy: Project suspended at the end of 2018.

I decided to be more active in the BA forum so if you have any questions, comments about football trading, please feel free to post here.

Regards,

P
Welcome back Psychoff
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