Football Data (goal times per match)

[jonnyg]

this is worthy of a detailed response on the basis that I have manually collated the time of the opening goal data for over 5 years >

the link you provide > shows goal times in games in the Premier league in the same format as say soccerway > what exactly would you consider using that data for in that format ?????

does it tell you for example the average goal production in games in the Premier league in games where the home team open the scoring on 18 minutes ??

how about the % of games in the Premier league where the home team open the scoring in the 0-10 minutes time band and 1-0 HT > 1-1 pathway with a goal in the 46-60 minute time band and still 1-1 on 60 minutes in terms of the % that end over 2.5 goals ???

the insight = when you say prove / disprove a theory ??

what exactly am I trying to prove or disprove ??

what I am saying is that football data and analytics is light years behind where it should be due to the lack of flow of data > and your link highlights the point that I am making <

this is why I am getting a number of messages asking me where I get my data from

If you scraped all the data on there. You would have every game played in all leagues with the exact goal times.
From the above data you could then do some formulas in excel to show the amount of games where the home team scored first, games where teams have fought back after going 1-0 down. You could easily get the average goals per BPL game for a season (or all seasons)

when you say easy ?

how easy ?

can you tell me for example what is the average goal production since 2011-2012 in games where the home team in the PL opened the scoring on 8 minutes ?

welshboy will be back in 2027 with that answer

[ArticalBadboy]

"You can have a free one from me < which i developed a number of years ago > laying the correct score on 80 + minutes in games that produce an early goal metric > "

JonnyG: Could you elaborate a little on how you would run this strategy please?

Q1. When you say early goal metric, do you mean first goal scored before 10 mins, 20 mins or something else?
Q2. If an early goal is scored, which games states would you trade?
Q3. Would you lay the correct score at 80mins at the given lay price, or do you have to wait until the lay price is at a certain low level for the strategy to work?

Many Thanks
ArticalBadBoy

[Euler]

It's actually quite easy to model goal times as goals are reasonably randomly distributed. When you get an early goal you have to account for the desire of the opposition to respond. But data will only tell you historically what happened, not really give the answer on what will happen. Football is notoriously variable.

[jonnyg]

It's actually quite easy to model goal times as goals are reasonably randomly distributed. When you get an early goal you have to account for the desire of the opposition to respond. But data will only tell you historically what happened, not really give the answer on what will happen. Football is notoriously variable.

having looked at the effect of the early goal for 5 years at around 10 hours a day > the last thing you would describe the early goal is variable > i will give you a nice example but dallas will probably delete it > hang on >

[jonnyg]

2015-2016 season in the National League where the away team opened the scoring 0-20 minutes , 69% ended over 2.5 goals and 43% ended over 3.5 goals

Both teams scored in 72% and over 1.5 first half goals were landed in 65%

The home teams won 20%, 17% ended a draw and the away teams won 63%

GAME PATHWAY

13/ 100 FT 0-1

54> 1-1 <> 18-14-22 <> away teams won 41%

33 > 0-2 <> 2-3-28 <> away teams won 85%

2016-2017 in the National League where the away team opened the scoring in the 0-20 minutes time band

GAME PATHWAY

12/101 FT 0-1

52/ 101 > 1-1 23-17-12 < away teams won 23% 37/101 > 0-2 0-2-35 < away teams won 95% 70% ended over 2.5 goals and 47.5% over 3.5 72% BTTS YES and 64% over 1.5 first half goals The home teams won 23% , 19% ended a draw and the away teams won 58%

42% produced a goal(s) 80 + minutes


football is variable ?

not if you understand the effect of the time of the opening goal as time decays in an individual league added to the game state = current score


football analytics 20-30 years behind where it should be > I cannot answer why that is >

[jonnyg]

the numbers games book sold over 100 000 copies advising people that football is 50% random >

[ArticalBadboy]

JonnyG: You didn't answer any of the questions on my post.

[welshboy06]

If you scraped all the data on there. You would have every game played in all leagues with the exact goal times.
From the above data you could then do some formulas in excel to show the amount of games where the home team scored first, games where teams have fought back after going 1-0 down. You could easily get the average goals per BPL game for a season (or all seasons)

when you say easy ?

how easy ?

can you tell me for example what is the average goal production since 2011-2012 in games where the home team in the PL opened the scoring on 8 minutes ?

welshboy will be back in 2027 with that answer

Apologies, I have a full time job and other commitments so its not always easy for me to provde a point.

Well the answer to that question is 3.5gls (Total goals / Total Games)

Since the 2011-2012 season, the amount of games where the Home team scored first and the First goal was scored On or Before the 8th minute...
Total Games: 84 Total Goals: 294 Average Goals: 3.5
Min Goals: 1
Max Goals: 9

Link to the thread where I've posted all the Goal data for BPL Seasons 2004-2005 to 2016-2017
viewtopic.php?f=6&t=14776

Cheers,
Adam