you have all missed one obvious point which I am delighted to share with you > Dallas asked me to provide in play analysis on this forum so when I did and he discovered that the analysis was very strong = deleted >
why do people actually look at football data and analytics ?
if you are considering football data and analytics from a historical perspective = starting prices > i can advise that the edge is zero on the basis that
expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league and as a result the individual strength of a team can be weakened / strengthened as time decays in a game <
if you model focus is starting prices then I can assure you that your edge will be zero >
we get to the summary > I have very strong analytical skills and I can see that I have looked at the early goal at a much higher level then the entities advising that my research is flawed >
Football Data (CSV, JSON) - UPDATED 16/08/17
Sheffield Wedn…
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to be helpful I can show you the game above in terms of the expectation of the outcome of the game given the events that occurred .
1. an early away goal
2. 0-1 with 20 minutes elapsed
3. 0-1 HT game state added to the early away goal in the Championship
4. a home fightback = survival analysis > 1-1 > in the 2nd half
what you should be looking to do is to work out how the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the game state ( current score ) effects accuracy added to the expectation of the team that open the scoring = holding their one goal advantage >
to take football data and analytics in terms of the opening goal and the fightback metric < I have been approached by a consortium to advise on a application that will give a minute by minute analysis of early goal games in terms of expectation of total goal production and expectation of the team that score > holding their advantage < this will be a great tool if it gets off the ground >
I am happy to offer my time for free to anyone that wants to discuss the early goal in terms of any developments >
I am also happy to offer in play analysis on this forum >
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Sunderland View events More info
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4′ G. Honeyman
D. Jones 70′
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to be helpful I can show you the game above in terms of the expectation of the outcome of the game given the events that occurred .
1. an early away goal
2. 0-1 with 20 minutes elapsed
3. 0-1 HT game state added to the early away goal in the Championship
4. a home fightback = survival analysis > 1-1 > in the 2nd half
what you should be looking to do is to work out how the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the game state ( current score ) effects accuracy added to the expectation of the team that open the scoring = holding their one goal advantage >
to take football data and analytics in terms of the opening goal and the fightback metric < I have been approached by a consortium to advise on a application that will give a minute by minute analysis of early goal games in terms of expectation of total goal production and expectation of the team that score > holding their advantage < this will be a great tool if it gets off the ground >
I am happy to offer my time for free to anyone that wants to discuss the early goal in terms of any developments >
I am also happy to offer in play analysis on this forum >
I have never asked you to do any in-play analysis, i may of once said feel free to share some betting opportunities if you see value somewhere similar to how megarian does on his cricket threads and others do throughout this forum on numerous other threads.
Instead what you posted was not opportunities or even analysis but just another form of copy and pasting material from your blog which had no value and couldn't be understood by hardly anyone. If it was remotely strong or of any use I along with others who read it would of been acting on it and singing your praises asking for more.
Like the spreadsheet added a few pages back? a worksheet like that can be knocked up for every league in every country or every team in a matter of minutes and that would save any need to copy and paste anything ever again, you will have all what you consider important factors right their at a glance
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From an outsider's view it all seems cherry picking a match that's already finished to try and prove some vague point with plenty of waffle and smilies thrown in for good measure. I'm sure people can find your blog if they're that interested.
Jumping on board these threads and filling them with data isn't helping either. Maybe just stick to one thread with all the data posting.
Jumping on board these threads and filling them with data isn't helping either. Maybe just stick to one thread with all the data posting.
If I would use your model, the first (simpele) thing I would look at is what happened in the past when a strong favourite goes a goal behind. As you say; percieved strength can weaken after a goal (in my book they are not weakened but 1-0 behind). The interesting thing to look at are (short) starting prices for the team going behind.jonnyg wrote: ↑Fri Aug 18, 2017 7:12 amif you are considering football data and analytics from a historical perspective = starting prices > i can advise that the edge is zero on the basis that
expectation of a goal is dependent on the current score added to the time of the opening goal in an individual league and as a result the individual strength of a team can be weakened / strengthened as time decays in a game <
if you model focus is starting prices then I can assure you that your edge will be zero
But thats my 2 cents and I will leave it there.
Some quick calculations, not to use as a system:
EPL seasons 2011-2016
Full time result after 1st Goal by Away Team in 0-20th minute vs Home Team with odds between 0.00-1.60 (39 matches):
Home win: 56,4%
Draw: 10,3%
Away win: 33,3%
+2.5 gls: 82,1%
BTTS Yes: 82,1%
Full time result after 1st Goal by Away Team in 0-20th minute vs Home Team with odds between 5.40-9.80 (40 matches)
Home win: 5,1%
Draw: 12,8%
Away win: 82,1%
+2.5 gls: 66,70%
BTTS Yes: 61,5%
Odds acquired by football.data.co
EPL seasons 2011-2016
Full time result after 1st Goal by Away Team in 0-20th minute vs Home Team with odds between 0.00-1.60 (39 matches):
Home win: 56,4%
Draw: 10,3%
Away win: 33,3%
+2.5 gls: 82,1%
BTTS Yes: 82,1%
Full time result after 1st Goal by Away Team in 0-20th minute vs Home Team with odds between 5.40-9.80 (40 matches)
Home win: 5,1%
Draw: 12,8%
Away win: 82,1%
+2.5 gls: 66,70%
BTTS Yes: 61,5%
Odds acquired by football.data.co
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Without knowing the odds after the goal was scored the data is pretty much pointless as I'd guess the odds after the goal would be very much in line with the actual results.
So i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.
I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.
For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%
When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%
I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.
For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%
When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%
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So in your opinion 'survival analysis' does not exist?Dallas wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:13 pmSo i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.
I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.
For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%
When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%
Not in the way Jonnyg is suggesting.deansaccount wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:33 pmSo in your opinion 'survival analysis' does not exist?Dallas wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:13 pmSo i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.
I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.
For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%
When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%
ie, 50 goals have been scored by the home team on the 8th min, the home team goes onto win 25 of them games therefore the odds of the home team following a opening goal on 8mins should be 2.0 = survival analysis
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Thanks for the info Dallas. Do you trade football often?Dallas wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:51 pmNot in the way Jonnyg is suggesting.deansaccount wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2017 3:33 pmSo in your opinion 'survival analysis' does not exist?Dallas wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2017 12:13 pmSo i had a closer look yesterday at this 'survival analysis' - for it to be true and more importantly useable as an edge the end result will have no correlation to their starting odds, in fact no matter how the starting odds are grouped the end W, L & D % should come out identical.
I can now confirm with some figures (what i knew already) and that is the end results differ widely and are connected to the starting prices.
For example; Home team opens scoring in first 10 mins
When starting odds 1.01 - 1.50 =
Result = W 90.32%, D 7.74%, A 1.94%
When starting odds 2.01 - 2.51
Result = W 65.65%, D 17.56%, A 16.79%
ie, 50 goals have been scored by the home team on the 8th min, the home team goes onto win 25 of them games therefore the odds of the home team following a opening goal on 8mins should be 2.0 = survival analysis
I do but only the main European leagues, but its still Horse racing and Tennis that get my main focusdeansaccount wrote: ↑Mon Aug 21, 2017 4:16 pm
Thanks for the info Dallas. Do you trade football often?