In play analysis from JonnyG Via the time of the opening goal / survival analysis / fightback analysis

Football, Soccer - whatever you call it. It is the beautiful game.
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ruthlessimon
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My gripe is, does it need 30 posts to get the point across? I just thought replying to yourself all the time was a bit crazy :?

1 post well written (with jargon limits) would suffice - it'd be long - but it'd suffice.

Btw, I've always been fascinated by fight back analysis. I remember watching a Chelsea vs PSG market ages ago. When Chelsea scored an early goal their odds got heavily compressed - moreover a lay on Chelsea would have hardly lost any money for 10/20mins (price was just flat-lining) - then PSG equalise - huge market move. But my opinion was, this was a champions league knockout. PSG really needed to score to stay in. I didn't need to know PSGs 10yr history for that one ;)

I'd love to understand this more, but it's incredibly hard to digest your posts as a relative football newbie
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Euler
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The data provided on the other thread will give you a massive clue as to how to price a comeback. There are so few goals in footy that the data is fairly clear and doesn't' vary that much between teams, but obviously incentive to score has a key role.
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jonnyg
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Altach opened the scoring on 20

9/4 9/4 6/5 on 27 minutes

> in this profile in Europa Play off > away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes time band we see > lowered expectation of a draw >

the draw should be around 9/2 at 0-1 in this game <
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jonnyg
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Euler wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 2:48 pm
The data provided on the other thread will give you a massive clue as to how to price a comeback. There are so few goals in footy that the data is fairly clear and doesn't' vary that much between teams, but obviously incentive to score has a key role.

in the 5 years that I have looked at the time of the opening goal > I have never factored in the incentive factor > how would you propose to factor incentive into football ?

the metrics I have looked at in individual leagues >

1. time of the opening goal

2. game state as time decays

3. fightback analysis > so 1-0 > 1-1

4. shot on target data < not that exciting imo

5. survival analysis in terms of football


this is a serious question for Peter , can an automated model factor in incentive ? < human nature etc < such as players being depressed etc ??

The data provided on the other thread will give you a massive clue as to how to price a comeback. < Peter is describing survival analysis which is of interest to me because the academic research thus far in this area has failed to look at individual leagues > hang on for a link to the academic research into that area <

Survival Analysis of the Timing of Goals in Soccer Games”

Submitted by

LAM CHUNG SANG
for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong
in September 2005



https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/40969/6/FullText.pdf
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jonnyg
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here was my response to the PHD study into survival analysis and football >

Survival analysis is generally defined as a set of methods for analyzing data where the outcome variable is the time until the occurrence of an event of interest. The event can be death, occurrence of a disease, marriage, divorce, etc.

If we look at Survival analysis in terms of Soccer the question we need to ask is how likely are a team to a hold a lead ?

“Survival Analysis of the Timing of Goals in Soccer Games”

Submitted by

LAM CHUNG SANG
for the degree of Master of Philosophy at The University of Hong Kong
in September 2005



https://hub.hku.hk/bitstream/10722/40969/6/FullText.pdf



Conclusion



” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”


OPTA forum 2015 < survival analysis in football >

Conclusion



” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”



If the above conclusion is correct then in effect there is no in play betting edge because in play market prices would be spot on in terms of expectation of the other team fighting back .



Nape response >

I looked at the effect of the time of the opening goal with attention to the early goal which I define as the opening goal by the home team 0-10 minutes / opening goal by the away team 0-20 minutes in individual leagues added to the major half time game states ( 1-0 /0-1 1-1 0-1 ) to understand if teams that are leading are likely to face a fightback from the other team .

Many football betting blogs will discuss the strength of teams but I have never seen any other blogs apart from socdoc.co.uk looking to see if there may be variables in play that can weaken the perceived strength of a team .

For example if we look at Manchester City in the League when losing 1-0 at half time AWAY , they last one a game in that profile in 1992



Manchester City away in the Premier league since 2008-2009 when losing 1-0 half time >



0 1415 2015-04-06 Crystal Palace Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1415 2014-10-25 West Ham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1314 2013-11-10 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 1314 2013-10-27 Chelsea Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1213 2013-03-16 Everton Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 1213 2012-08-26 Liverpool Man City 1-0 2-2
E0 1011 2011-02-12 Man United Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 1011 2011-01-22 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0910 2010-03-14 Sunderland Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2010-02-06 Hull Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0910 2009-12-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 3-0
E0 0910 2009-10-18 Wigan Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0910 2009-10-05 Aston Villa Man City 1-0 1-1
E0 0809 2009-05-16 Tottenham Man City 1-0 2-1
E0 0809 2009-04-04 Arsenal Man City 1-0 2-0
E0 0809 2009-03-15 Chelsea Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2009-01-31 Stoke Man City 1-0 1-0
E0 0809 2008-12-28 Blackburn Man City 1-0 2-2


In the majority of the above games , the betting industry and the in play punters had some expectation of Manchester City fighting back > why ? < well <

they are seduced by >



” teams score more goals when they are being led but fewer goals when they are leading,”



We can look at Survival analysis in Soccer on a league level by looking at the early goal and expectation of the game going to 1-1 or 0-2 /2-0 or staying at 1-0.

In the Premier League last season in games where the home team opened the scoring 0-10 minutes ,

GAME PATHWAY

3/41 1-0 FT

26/41 > 2-0 24-2-0 <> home teams won 92%

12/41 > 1-1 5-4-3 home teams won 42%



We can see from above that the pathway > 2-0 is more likely then > 1-1 .

If we look at the pathway in ligue 2 in games where the away team open the scoring 0-20 last season ;

GAME PATHWAY

8/59 0-1 FT

36/59 > 1-1 15-16-5 <> away team won 14%

15/59 > 0-2 0-3-12 <> away team won 80%

and we can see that the team that concede are more likely to score the 2nd goal



Summary



If you look at individual leagues around the globe added to the time of the opening goal and the game state ( current score ) you will find which has been noted in several blogs that the team that concedes will have more shots , but they failed to notice that the shots in general will be of a low accuracy Wall which is one reason why a team does not always score more goals when they are behind and the other main reason which has never been developed is that the perceived strength of a team can be weakened by variables that may occur such as the game state ( current score )
footnote : the away team opening the scoring late in a game is more likely to score the 2nd goal then > 1-1 pathway
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jonnyg
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what we are seeing at all the levels of football data and analysis is a blanket approach without looking at the effect of the time of the opening goal in an individual league added to the game state > current score as time decays which produces random strategies such as backing the draw in games that are 1-0 HT if the team winning 1-0 HT were Evens - 5/2 at KO > the simple reason is that there is no academic research that has been able to explain why the draw in football is so common :idea:

if you can understand survival analysis and football in terms of the link then you will have a good base for a trading model < :!:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:27 pm
Altach opened the scoring on 20

9/4 9/4 6/5 on 27 minutes

> in this profile in Europa Play off > away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes time band we see > lowered expectation of a draw >

the draw should be around 9/2 at 0-1 in this game <
at 1-1

4/5 13/8 11/2 < with high expectation of further goal(s) production in the 2nd half given the first half events and as a result lowered expectation of a draw < the draw should be much bigger then 13/8 >
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ruthlessimon
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:30 pm
in the 5 years that I have looked at the time of the opening goal > I have never factored in the incentive factor > how would you propose to factor incentive into football ?
I imagine it would be a nightmare to adjust the data, but here are the games which I think have big incentives:

Knockout
Late group stages
Derby games
6 pointers (relegation battles & top 4 battles)
Cup finals/semi-finals

They certainly need to have a higher priority, than average league games imo. Hope it helps :)
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jonnyg
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a quick experiment re Portugal segunda 1-0 HT to the home team >

I am going to map out the pathway to see how a tech person would be able to show the format in a way that would be palatable >

F = fightback goal 46-70 time band

1-1 F > 2-1
1-1 F > 2-1
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0>3-0
> 1-1
> 2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1
> 1-1F > 1-2> 2-2
>2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F > 1-2
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1 > 5-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 1-2 > 1-3
> 1-1 > 1-2 > 1-3
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 2-2 > 2-3
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 1-2
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:14 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Dallas
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:47 pm
jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 6:27 pm
Altach opened the scoring on 20

9/4 9/4 6/5 on 27 minutes

> in this profile in Europa Play off > away team open the scoring 0-20 minutes time band we see > lowered expectation of a draw >

the draw should be around 9/2 at 0-1 in this game <
at 1-1

4/5 13/8 11/2 < with high expectation of further goal(s) production in the 2nd half given the first half events and as a result lowered expectation of a draw < the draw should be much bigger then 13/8 >
1-2 < GETINNNNNNN
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jonnyg
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have a look at early away goal 0-20 minutes Europa playoff and what you see is that 1-1 FT is monster rare :idea:

i was speaking to a chap who is full time in the betting industry > i said I am blowing my own trumpet > I think I am a genius < he said > " if you are a genius then why have you never had a job offer in the betting industry " :shock:
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jonnyg
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jonnyg wrote:
Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:02 pm
a quick experiment re Portugal segunda 1-0 HT to the home team >

I am going to map out the pathway to see how a tech person would be able to show the format in a way that would be palatable >

F = fightback goal 46-70 time band

1-1 F > 2-1
1-1 F > 2-1
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0>3-0
> 1-1
> 2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1
> 1-1F > 1-2> 2-2
>2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F > 1-2
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1 > 5-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 1-2 > 1-3
> 1-1 > 1-2 > 1-3
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 2-2 > 2-3
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 1-2
1-0
> 2-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
1-0
> 1-1F > 2-1
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 1-3
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 2-2
> 2-0
> 2-0
> 1-1
1-0
> 1-1 > 1-2
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 4-0
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 2-2
1-0
1-0
1-0
> 1-1F > 1-2
> 2-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 2-1
1-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0
1-0
> 1-1F
> 1-1 > 2-1
1-0
> 2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 1-1F
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 3-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 4-0
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 3-1
> 2-0 > 3-0 > 4-0 > 4-1
> 2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0
> 1-1
1-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 2-0
> 1-1
1-0
> 1-1
1-0
> 2-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1
> 1-1F
1-0
1-0
1-0
2-0
2-0
> 2-0 > 2-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1 > 2-2
> 1-1
1-0
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1 > 4-1 > 5-1
1-0
1-0
> 2-0
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
> 1-1F > 1-2 > 1-3 > 1-4 > 1-5
> 1-1
> 2-0 > 3-0
. 2-0 > 3-0
1-0
> 2-0 > 2-1 > 3-1
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 1-1 F
> 1-1 F > 2-1
> 1-1
1-0
> 1-1F > 1-2
> 1-1F
> 2-0
1-0
> 1-1F > 1-2

you should note in the games above that produced the F > expectation of further goals(s) < in effect the fightback metric is acting as a catalyst for further goal(s) in Segunda <
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:16 pm, edited 7 times in total.
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jonnyg
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when Altach opened the scoring on 20 minutes we should have seen expectation of acceleration of goal production and as a result lowered expectation of a draw < very rare in early away Europa play off BUT FT 2-2
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jonnyg
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last 122 games in Portugal Segunda 1-0 at HT to the home team >

49% over 2.5 goals = call it Evens < the offer at HT will be Evens - 11/8

GAME PATHWAY

28/122 1-0 FT = 23%

> 1-1 in 46-70 time band < 28/122 with 21/28 over 2.5 = 75% :idea:

> 1-1 43/122

> 2-0 51/122

if you read the academic research into survival analysis and football > the core conclusion is that the team conceding the opening goal will shoot more and score more > the flaw is that they failed to look at the effect of the time of the opening goal in individual leagues :idea:


the away teams won only 11/122

this is a key point > if you are obsessed with starting prices < the betting industry will spank you <

In portugal segunda in games 1-0 HT to home team with the away team the perceived much stronger < low expectation of an away win which the market will not factor < :idea:
Last edited by jonnyg on Thu Aug 24, 2017 8:43 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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