Penalties

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Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

There's an interesting article on penalties in Peter's blog (http://www.betangel.com/blog_wp/).

Peter - If you were Fabio Capello, would you instruct some of your players (say, takers 1 & 3) to shoot down the centre of the goal, given that the opposition goalie is highly likely to dive out of the ball's path?

BTW, I hope that James does the offputting movements that Dudek did for Liverpool in the Champion's League final if we're up against a penalty, although I have a feeling he won't!

Jeff
DaveA2004
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2009 3:21 am

I think goalkeepers decide at some moment to dive one way or the other before the penalty partly because they don't want to be called an idiot, despite the surprisingly high number of penalties shot straight down the middle. Assuming the penalty taker doesn't make a mess of his shot, there probably isn't enough time to react after the shot has been taken. If the keeper dives, nobody will blame him if a goal is scored. We all believe that a striker should score from a penalty and if the keeper just stands there and a goal is scored everyone will say 'why didn't you dive?'
Bet Angel
Bet Angel
Bet Angel
Posts: 3999
Joined: Tue Apr 14, 2009 3:47 pm

That's basically what I say in the blog but it is definatley sub optimal behaviour. If I was a manager I would tell the goalkeeper to stay still or vary his movement at random and I would offer to take any flak after the match. I would also employ some mind games to make the opposition definately dive. Easier said than done though!
DaveA2004
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2009 3:21 am

Almost 29% of penalties shot straight down the middle is a lot. Perhaps penalty takers are reacting to their own fear of missing. They'd prefer to get it on target rather than miss altogether. It makes sense for the keeper to just stand there.
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

What would you say, though, to the argument that most penalties are taken quite low, so if the goalkeeper is on or near the ground when the ball arrives, there's a greater chance of his body blocking the ball?

Jeff
Bet Angel wrote:That's basically what I say in the blog but it is definatley sub optimal behaviour. If I was a manager I would tell the goalkeeper to stay still or vary his movement at random and I would offer to take any flak after the match.
BBB123
Posts: 62
Joined: Sat Jul 11, 2009 12:07 pm

Hi all,

Well according to the stats if it goes to pens then Germany will score 4.25/5 & England 3.4/5.That doesn't sound as bad as the overall win% that has Germany at 71% & England at 17%.
I can't see any correct score markets for a penalty shootout on Betfair but I would say 4-3 Germany would be favourite?

Anyway I won't be thinking about that,I've got to get in the pub by 1 o'clock to get a seat.

Come on England
Ben
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

England have been practicing taking penalties, so hopefully, in the words of Marty McFly (the Michael J Fox character in Back to the Future), 'The history's gonna change!'

Jeff
BBB123 wrote:Hi all,

Well according to the stats if it goes to pens then Germany will score 4.25/5 & England 3.4/5.That doesn't sound as bad as the overall win% that has Germany at 71% & England at 17%.
I can't see any correct score markets for a penalty shootout on Betfair but I would say 4-3 Germany would be favourite?

Anyway I won't be thinking about that,I've got to get in the pub by 1 o'clock to get a seat.

Come on England
Ben
Iron
Posts: 6793
Joined: Fri Dec 11, 2009 10:51 pm

As as aside, the best place for a penalty taker to put the ball is in either top corner of the net, as it is impossible for the keeper to make the save (see http://news.bbc.co.uk/sportacademy/hi/s ... 276177.stm).

But I imagine the fact that you don't routinely see strikers going for that area shows how difficult a shot it is to get on target.

Jeff
DaveA2004 wrote:I think goalkeepers decide at some moment to dive one way or the other before the penalty partly because they don't want to be called an idiot, despite the surprisingly high number of penalties shot straight down the middle. Assuming the penalty taker doesn't make a mess of his shot, there probably isn't enough time to react after the shot has been taken. If the keeper dives, nobody will blame him if a goal is scored. We all believe that a striker should score from a penalty and if the keeper just stands there and a goal is scored everyone will say 'why didn't you dive?'
DaveA2004
Posts: 37
Joined: Sun Apr 19, 2009 3:21 am

Yes, that would be my idea of a good penalty but in a world cup qualifier or any other important match, who has the nerve? Probably not many.
mpendle
Posts: 38
Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 9:09 pm

Interestingly I just stumbled across this site, linked from a FIFA.com article.

http://www.castrolfootball.com/penaltyanalysis/

A fascinating insight and I really was astonished how predictable some players are.
Having seen this, I think to get the odds even more in your favour I would be doing this sort of research. Not too many of those pens are down the middle.

Enjoy
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