Hi Peter and Bet Angel Community,
I'm new to the forum. Here's a brief summary of my trading so far:
I started dabbling in trading around a year ago. I have been trading only tennis since the season started this year. I have now specialised in three tennis trades that work for me based on statistical data. I am now starting to see a consistent overall profit. I plan on scaling this over time. I trade using Guardian automation.
I have been looking at getting into football trading and like the look at your football ratings system. I analysed success of a specific trade based on your historical predictions and the success rate looks promising. As well as planning on using your predictions, I have started to model my own football ratings. If they have a high enough success rate I'm going to see if i can apply them to a wide range of football leagues.
I have used a range of factors to model my football ratings. I would like some advice on two teams relative position in the league and how much this effects the predicted goals rating. You mentioned in a previous post or video that you use this information as part of your model.
For example: You would expect to see more goals from two teams playing at the top and bottom of the league, then you would if they were close together and therefore more evenly matched.
Can you suggest how i would apply a figure to this? For example: Would you expect (on average) to see one more goal if the teams were at opposite ends of the league and one less if they were next to each other?
I have a value for this already, but it is more of an uneducated assumption. I considered looking at historical data, but thought that this would be effected by so many more factors, that it wouldn't be worth it.
This question is directed at Peter, but i would also welcome suggestions from the rest of the community.
Cheers.
Scott.
Football ratings
3.69 : Werder Bremen vs. Bayern Munich
3.27 : Celtic vs. St Johnstone
3.22 : Alaves vs. Barcelona
3.19 : Leverkusen vs. Hoffenheim
3.10 : Roma vs. Inter
3.08 : Man Utd vs. Leicester
3.01 : Swindon vs. Crawley Town
2.88 : Ipswich vs. Fulham
2.85 : Brentford vs. Wolves
2.73 : Genoa vs. Juventus
2.69 : Cardiff vs. QPR
2.67 : Newcastle vs. West Ham
2.61 : Middlesbrough vs. Preston
2.53 : Las Palmas vs. Atletico Madrid
2.53 : Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Wolfsburg
2.52 : Watford vs. Brighton
2.49 : Girona vs. Malaga
2.47 : Huddersfield vs. Southampton
2.46 : C Palace vs. Swansea
2.44 : Burton vs. Sheff Wed
2.42 : Amiens vs. Nice
3.27 : Celtic vs. St Johnstone
3.22 : Alaves vs. Barcelona
3.19 : Leverkusen vs. Hoffenheim
3.10 : Roma vs. Inter
3.08 : Man Utd vs. Leicester
3.01 : Swindon vs. Crawley Town
2.88 : Ipswich vs. Fulham
2.85 : Brentford vs. Wolves
2.73 : Genoa vs. Juventus
2.69 : Cardiff vs. QPR
2.67 : Newcastle vs. West Ham
2.61 : Middlesbrough vs. Preston
2.53 : Las Palmas vs. Atletico Madrid
2.53 : Eintracht Frankfurt vs. Wolfsburg
2.52 : Watford vs. Brighton
2.49 : Girona vs. Malaga
2.47 : Huddersfield vs. Southampton
2.46 : C Palace vs. Swansea
2.44 : Burton vs. Sheff Wed
2.42 : Amiens vs. Nice
'New Topic' Just above the first post in the top left of the forum category you want to post in
viewforum.php?f=6
3.49 : Hoffenheim vs. Bayern Munich
3.29 : Freiburg vs. Dortmund
3.23 : New York City vs. Portland Timbers
3.06 : Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
3.04 : Nice vs. Monaco
2.97 : Juventus vs. Chievo
2.95 : Preston vs. Barnsley
2.89 : Reading vs. Bristol City
2.88 : Sevilla vs. Eibar
2.88 : Mainz vs. Leverkusen
2.86 : Aston Villa vs. Brentford
2.86 : Leicester vs. Chelsea
2.84 : Fulham vs. Cardiff
2.82 : Rotherham vs. Bury
2.77 : Mgladbach vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
2.67 : Leeds vs. Burton
2.66 : Stoke vs. Man Utd
2.64 : Southampton vs. Watford
2.62 : Avellino vs. Foggia
2.60 : Wolves vs. Millwall
2.59 : Everton vs. Tottenham
2.59 : Sheff Wed vs. Nottm Forest
2.52 : Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid
2.50 : Sunderland vs. Sheff Utd
2.35 : Viitorul Constanta vs. FCSB
2.31 : Bolton vs. Middlesbrough
2.29 : Brighton vs. West Brom
3.29 : Freiburg vs. Dortmund
3.23 : New York City vs. Portland Timbers
3.06 : Arsenal vs. Bournemouth
3.04 : Nice vs. Monaco
2.97 : Juventus vs. Chievo
2.95 : Preston vs. Barnsley
2.89 : Reading vs. Bristol City
2.88 : Sevilla vs. Eibar
2.88 : Mainz vs. Leverkusen
2.86 : Aston Villa vs. Brentford
2.86 : Leicester vs. Chelsea
2.84 : Fulham vs. Cardiff
2.82 : Rotherham vs. Bury
2.77 : Mgladbach vs. Eintracht Frankfurt
2.67 : Leeds vs. Burton
2.66 : Stoke vs. Man Utd
2.64 : Southampton vs. Watford
2.62 : Avellino vs. Foggia
2.60 : Wolves vs. Millwall
2.59 : Everton vs. Tottenham
2.59 : Sheff Wed vs. Nottm Forest
2.52 : Valencia vs. Atletico Madrid
2.50 : Sunderland vs. Sheff Utd
2.35 : Viitorul Constanta vs. FCSB
2.31 : Bolton vs. Middlesbrough
2.29 : Brighton vs. West Brom
One very good question, and one very good idea, imo.
