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US Masters 2012
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by Euler » Tue Apr 03, 2012 9:18 pm
Boylesports are doing their “6 places” offer. They are offering ¼ the odds a place 1-2-3-4-5 and 6 until tee off time on Thursday.
Last edited by Euler on Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:48 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Euler - Archangel Professional
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by PeterLe » Wed Apr 04, 2012 8:28 am
I read Peter's blog last time around and have dutched some of the high odds looking for them to drop at the cut..just need a few of the unlikely contenders to make it through....
Anyway, I was looking for other trading tips and came across this, which seems logical..so hope someone might make some use of it?? :-
Betfair markets are live from the first shot of the Masters to the last. Here are four tips to keep in mind while betting in-play throughout the tournament
Lay heavily odds-on challengers for a top-five finish
This rule could be applied to any tournament, rather than just specifically the Masters. Golf is such a volatile sport, always offering the potential of dramatic turnarounds, that it is usually worth laying players at very short odds-on in-running for the place markets. Once the tournament reaches the final nine holes, chasers are bound to take risks that can easily lead to costly disasters, especially given that few at this level have reason to be too concerned about the financial implications of finishing sixth rather than second.
Think of the recent WGC-Cadillac Championship, where Doral's Blue Monster typically played havoc with the leaderboard. Keegan Bradley was favourite to win the event down the back nine and trading around 1.15 to make the top-five, yet a couple of disasters later he'd dropped out of contention, eventually finish eighth. Even more dramatically in last year's Masters, Rory McIlroy, KJ Choi and Angel Cabrera all held favouritism at one stage on Sunday, yet none of them finished in the top-five.
Lay players after completing the front-nine
Many a Masters has been lost on the 10th, 11th and 12th holes at Augusta, as Rory McIlroy will testify. Twelve months ago he took the lead into the final back-nine, hit his drive on the 10th out of bounds and by the time he'd finished the 12th, was out of the tournament. All three holes are brutal. In the last five renewals, the par-four 10th has thrice ranked first or second hardest on the course and always amongst the toughest six. The infamous par-four 11th that starts Amen Corner was the hardest hole in three of the last five years and never ranked lower than fourth. The par-three 12th isn't quite so bad as birdies are possible, but errant tee shots usually find the water, bunkers or azaleas, bringing very big scores into the equation. Last year it ranked second hardest.
Back players once safely aboard the 12th green
Once a player has avoided those hazards off the 12th tee, however, they can breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to the most generous section of the course. Just as the previous three holes end many Masters bids, the winner usually makes his move with a run over the next three. First, to finish Amen Corner there's a genuine eagle opportunity in the form of a reachable par-five, measuring only 510 yards. Last year it was the easiest hole on the course. Next, the 14th is the easiest non par-five on the course, averaging under par in two of the last three Masters. To close this easy stretch, there's another reachable 530-yard par-five which again offers an eagle opportunity. Throughout the week, many players will transform their position over this trio of holes, offering smart in-running traders an opportunity to profit as their odds shorten.
Back players close to the clubhouse lead after they've finished their rounds
Apart from the par-fives, Augusta is a very tough course so once a player is in the clubhouse, within close touch of the lead, he can be happy to have completed a good day's work, sit back and watch others struggle. This is particularly true on the opening two days. Usually the best of the opening morning starters will see their odds shorten during the approximate 24 hour gap between their first and second rounds. Later starters invariably get the worst of conditions, before having to get up early and play another long round on a tough layout. By the time Thursday's early starters begin their second round, most of the field will be out of contention, so the best placed among them will be among a select group with a chance to make a big move on Friday afternoon. Again, in-running traders who time their bets well can often make a profit in between rounds by correctly predicting these fluctuations.
Anyway, I was looking for other trading tips and came across this, which seems logical..so hope someone might make some use of it?? :-
Betfair markets are live from the first shot of the Masters to the last. Here are four tips to keep in mind while betting in-play throughout the tournament
Lay heavily odds-on challengers for a top-five finish
This rule could be applied to any tournament, rather than just specifically the Masters. Golf is such a volatile sport, always offering the potential of dramatic turnarounds, that it is usually worth laying players at very short odds-on in-running for the place markets. Once the tournament reaches the final nine holes, chasers are bound to take risks that can easily lead to costly disasters, especially given that few at this level have reason to be too concerned about the financial implications of finishing sixth rather than second.
Think of the recent WGC-Cadillac Championship, where Doral's Blue Monster typically played havoc with the leaderboard. Keegan Bradley was favourite to win the event down the back nine and trading around 1.15 to make the top-five, yet a couple of disasters later he'd dropped out of contention, eventually finish eighth. Even more dramatically in last year's Masters, Rory McIlroy, KJ Choi and Angel Cabrera all held favouritism at one stage on Sunday, yet none of them finished in the top-five.
Lay players after completing the front-nine
Many a Masters has been lost on the 10th, 11th and 12th holes at Augusta, as Rory McIlroy will testify. Twelve months ago he took the lead into the final back-nine, hit his drive on the 10th out of bounds and by the time he'd finished the 12th, was out of the tournament. All three holes are brutal. In the last five renewals, the par-four 10th has thrice ranked first or second hardest on the course and always amongst the toughest six. The infamous par-four 11th that starts Amen Corner was the hardest hole in three of the last five years and never ranked lower than fourth. The par-three 12th isn't quite so bad as birdies are possible, but errant tee shots usually find the water, bunkers or azaleas, bringing very big scores into the equation. Last year it ranked second hardest.
Back players once safely aboard the 12th green
Once a player has avoided those hazards off the 12th tee, however, they can breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to the most generous section of the course. Just as the previous three holes end many Masters bids, the winner usually makes his move with a run over the next three. First, to finish Amen Corner there's a genuine eagle opportunity in the form of a reachable par-five, measuring only 510 yards. Last year it was the easiest hole on the course. Next, the 14th is the easiest non par-five on the course, averaging under par in two of the last three Masters. To close this easy stretch, there's another reachable 530-yard par-five which again offers an eagle opportunity. Throughout the week, many players will transform their position over this trio of holes, offering smart in-running traders an opportunity to profit as their odds shorten.
Back players close to the clubhouse lead after they've finished their rounds
Apart from the par-fives, Augusta is a very tough course so once a player is in the clubhouse, within close touch of the lead, he can be happy to have completed a good day's work, sit back and watch others struggle. This is particularly true on the opening two days. Usually the best of the opening morning starters will see their odds shorten during the approximate 24 hour gap between their first and second rounds. Later starters invariably get the worst of conditions, before having to get up early and play another long round on a tough layout. By the time Thursday's early starters begin their second round, most of the field will be out of contention, so the best placed among them will be among a select group with a chance to make a big move on Friday afternoon. Again, in-running traders who time their bets well can often make a profit in between rounds by correctly predicting these fluctuations.
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PeterLe - Archangel Professional
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- Joined: Wed Apr 15, 2009 3:19 pm
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convoysur-2 - Posts: 192
- Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2012 11:00 am
by Euler » Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:48 pm
Holes where a dropped shot is most likely: -
Hole
11
7
4
1
12
18
17
10
16
5
6
9
14
8
3
13
2
15
The variance is 24% from top to bottom. On average players drop a short 1 in 5 holes.
Least likely: -
Hole
13
15
2
8
3
14
16
18
7
9
12
6
10
4
17
5
11
1
Variance is massive, 45% from top to bottom.
How the course plays: -
1 Tough
2-3 Easy
4-7 Tough
8-9 Easy
10-12 Tough
13-15 Easy
16-18 Tough
Hole
11
7
4
1
12
18
17
10
16
5
6
9
14
8
3
13
2
15
The variance is 24% from top to bottom. On average players drop a short 1 in 5 holes.
Least likely: -
Hole
13
15
2
8
3
14
16
18
7
9
12
6
10
4
17
5
11
1
Variance is massive, 45% from top to bottom.
How the course plays: -
1 Tough
2-3 Easy
4-7 Tough
8-9 Easy
10-12 Tough
13-15 Easy
16-18 Tough
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Euler - Archangel Professional
- Posts: 6175
- Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:39 pm
- Location: Bet Angel HQ
by Tobedotty » Fri Apr 06, 2012 2:20 am
Another one that is already viral; http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4PL-DFrgzRs
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Tobedotty - Posts: 42
- Joined: Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:15 pm
by Euler » Fri Apr 06, 2012 8:47 am
First day movers and profit / loss to £10 stakes
Positive
Lee Westwood - 23 to 5.4 - £32.59
Rory McIlroy - 8 to 7 - £1.43
Bubba Watson - 55 to 18 - £20.56
Louis Oosthuizen - 90 to 20 - £35
Keegan Bradley - 38 to 34 - £1.18
Peter Hanson - 210 to 34 - £51.76
Jason Dufner - 140 to 42 - £23.33
Zach Johnson - 130 to 50 - £16
Jim Furyk - 120 to 60 - £10
Miguel Angel Jimenez - 320 to 65 - £39.23
Matt Kuchar - 60 to 55 - £0.91
Francesco Molinari - 310 to 65 - £37.69
Ben Crane - 350 to 75 - £36.67
Nick Watney - 65 to 60 - £0.83
Angel Cabrera - 110 to 80 - £3.75
Padraig Harrington - 130 to 90 - £4.44
Vijay Singh - 360 to 130 - £17.69
Aaron Baddeley - 140 to 110 - £2.73
Paul Lawrie - 380 to 75 - £40.67
Stewart Cink - 510 to 260 - £9.62
Henrik Stenson - 210 to 150 - £4
Kevin Na - 310 to 220 - £4.09
Scott Stallings - 990 to 310 - £21.94
Ross Fisher - 390 to 210 - £8.57
Hideki Matsuyama - 1000 to 650 - £5.38
Patrick Cantlay - 970 to 460 - £11.09
Kevin Chappell - 990 to 520 - £9.04
Mike Weir - 1000 to 940 - £0.64
Negative
Tiger Woods - 6.2 to 9.8
Phil Mickelson - 13.5 to 40
Justin Rose - 32 to 46
Hunter Mahan - 36 to 55
Luke Donald - 17.5 to 60
Charl Schwartzel - 48 to 65
Sergio Garcia - 75 to 110
Webb Simpson - 70 to 100
Bill Haas - 100 to 130
Ian Poulter - 110 to 150
Brandt Snedeker - 90 to 140
Bo Van Pelt - 75 to 160
Fred Couples - 260 to 350
Rickie Fowler - 120 to 410
Thomas Bjorn - 260 to 440
Charles Howell III - 190 to 240
Geoff Ogilvy - 90 to 220
Adam Scott - 34 to 170
David Toms - 250 to 700
Gary Woodland - 140 to 290
Jonathan Byrd - 430 to 490
Sean OHair - 210 to 460
Graeme McDowell - 90 to 560
Rory Sabbatini - 510 to 520
Y.E. Yang - 160 to 360
Jason Day - 42 to 570
John Senden - 220 to 840
Darren Clarke - 690 to 710
Kyle Stanley - 160 to 940
Trevor Immelman - 150 to 1000
Martin Laird - 180 to 1000
Robert Karlsson - 170 to 680
Sang-Moon Bae - 240 to 820
Ryan Palmer - 220 to 1000
Alvaro Quiros - 200 to 1000
Johnson Wagner - 180 to 1000
Robert Garrigus - 270 to 1000
Paul Casey - 240 to 1000
Fredrik Jacobson - 330 to 1000
Ryo Ishikawa - 340 to 1000
Edoardo Molinari - 330 to 1000
K.J. Choi - 75 to 1000
Mark Wilson - 360 to 1000
Lucas Glover - 450 to 1000
Simon Dyson - 510 to 1000
Kyung-Tae Kim - 540 to 1000
Anders Hansen - 600 to 1000
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - 650 to 1000
Tim Clark - 830 to 860
Brendan Steele - 990 to 1000
Harrison Frazar - 970 to 1000
Chez Reavie - 990 to 1000
Jose Maria Olazabal - 940 to 1000
Scott Verplank - 970 to 1000
Positive
Lee Westwood - 23 to 5.4 - £32.59
Rory McIlroy - 8 to 7 - £1.43
Bubba Watson - 55 to 18 - £20.56
Louis Oosthuizen - 90 to 20 - £35
Keegan Bradley - 38 to 34 - £1.18
Peter Hanson - 210 to 34 - £51.76
Jason Dufner - 140 to 42 - £23.33
Zach Johnson - 130 to 50 - £16
Jim Furyk - 120 to 60 - £10
Miguel Angel Jimenez - 320 to 65 - £39.23
Matt Kuchar - 60 to 55 - £0.91
Francesco Molinari - 310 to 65 - £37.69
Ben Crane - 350 to 75 - £36.67
Nick Watney - 65 to 60 - £0.83
Angel Cabrera - 110 to 80 - £3.75
Padraig Harrington - 130 to 90 - £4.44
Vijay Singh - 360 to 130 - £17.69
Aaron Baddeley - 140 to 110 - £2.73
Paul Lawrie - 380 to 75 - £40.67
Stewart Cink - 510 to 260 - £9.62
Henrik Stenson - 210 to 150 - £4
Kevin Na - 310 to 220 - £4.09
Scott Stallings - 990 to 310 - £21.94
Ross Fisher - 390 to 210 - £8.57
Hideki Matsuyama - 1000 to 650 - £5.38
Patrick Cantlay - 970 to 460 - £11.09
Kevin Chappell - 990 to 520 - £9.04
Mike Weir - 1000 to 940 - £0.64
Negative
Tiger Woods - 6.2 to 9.8
Phil Mickelson - 13.5 to 40
Justin Rose - 32 to 46
Hunter Mahan - 36 to 55
Luke Donald - 17.5 to 60
Charl Schwartzel - 48 to 65
Sergio Garcia - 75 to 110
Webb Simpson - 70 to 100
Bill Haas - 100 to 130
Ian Poulter - 110 to 150
Brandt Snedeker - 90 to 140
Bo Van Pelt - 75 to 160
Fred Couples - 260 to 350
Rickie Fowler - 120 to 410
Thomas Bjorn - 260 to 440
Charles Howell III - 190 to 240
Geoff Ogilvy - 90 to 220
Adam Scott - 34 to 170
David Toms - 250 to 700
Gary Woodland - 140 to 290
Jonathan Byrd - 430 to 490
Sean OHair - 210 to 460
Graeme McDowell - 90 to 560
Rory Sabbatini - 510 to 520
Y.E. Yang - 160 to 360
Jason Day - 42 to 570
John Senden - 220 to 840
Darren Clarke - 690 to 710
Kyle Stanley - 160 to 940
Trevor Immelman - 150 to 1000
Martin Laird - 180 to 1000
Robert Karlsson - 170 to 680
Sang-Moon Bae - 240 to 820
Ryan Palmer - 220 to 1000
Alvaro Quiros - 200 to 1000
Johnson Wagner - 180 to 1000
Robert Garrigus - 270 to 1000
Paul Casey - 240 to 1000
Fredrik Jacobson - 330 to 1000
Ryo Ishikawa - 340 to 1000
Edoardo Molinari - 330 to 1000
K.J. Choi - 75 to 1000
Mark Wilson - 360 to 1000
Lucas Glover - 450 to 1000
Simon Dyson - 510 to 1000
Kyung-Tae Kim - 540 to 1000
Anders Hansen - 600 to 1000
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - 650 to 1000
Tim Clark - 830 to 860
Brendan Steele - 990 to 1000
Harrison Frazar - 970 to 1000
Chez Reavie - 990 to 1000
Jose Maria Olazabal - 940 to 1000
Scott Verplank - 970 to 1000
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Euler - Archangel Professional
- Posts: 6175
- Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:39 pm
- Location: Bet Angel HQ
by Euler » Sat Apr 07, 2012 5:31 am
Two day movers
Positives: -
Rory McIlroy - 8 to 4.4 - £8.18
Lee Westwood - 23 to 8 - £18.75
Phil Mickelson - 13.5 to 10.5 - £2.86
Bubba Watson - 55 to 14.5 - £27.93
Sergio Garcia - 75 to 18.5 - £30.54
Jason Dufner - 140 to 17.5 - £70
Louis Oosthuizen - 90 to 19.5 - £36.15
Fred Couples - 260 to 26 - £90
Matt Kuchar - 60 to 27 - £12.22
Nick Watney - 65 to 38 - £7.11
Miguel Angel Jimenez - 320 to 44 - £62.73
Paul Lawrie - 380 to 60 - £53.33
Aaron Baddeley - 140 to 65 - £11.54
Henrik Stenson - 210 to 70 - £20
Peter Hanson - 210 to 75 - £18
Charles Howell III - 190 to 90 - £11.11
Gary Woodland - 140 to 100 - £4
Ben Crane - 350 to 110 - £21.82
Vijay Singh - 360 to 100 - £26
Jim Furyk - 120 to 100 - £2
Y.E. Yang - 160 to 110 - £4.55
Sean OHair - 210 to 140 - £5
Jonathan Byrd - 430 to 250 - £7.2
Francesco Molinari - 310 to 300 - £0.33
Negatives: -
Tiger Woods - 6.2 to 42 - £-8.52
Justin Rose - 32 to 75 - £-5.73
Hunter Mahan - 36 to 85 - £-5.76
Adam Scott - 34 to 110 - £-6.91
Padraig Harrington - 130 to 140 - £-0.71
Ian Poulter - 110 to 170 - £-3.53
Luke Donald - 17.5 to 250 - £-9.3
Charl Schwartzel - 48 to 550 - £-9.13
Geoff Ogilvy - 90 to 220 - £-5.91
Zach Johnson - 130 to 260 - £-5
Fredrik Jacobson - 330 to 400 - £-1.75
Sang-Moon Bae - 240 to 400 - £-4
Webb Simpson - 70 to 480 - £-8.54
Bill Haas - 100 to 640 - £-8.44
Martin Kaymer - 85 to 800 - £-8.94
Keegan Bradley - 38 to 1000 - £-9.62
Angel Cabrera - 110 to 1000 - £-8.9
Brandt Snedeker - 90 to 900 - £-9
Bo Van Pelt - 75 to 1000 - £-9.25
Steve Stricker - 55 to 1000 - £-9.45
Ross Fisher - 390 to 1000 - £-6.1
Kevin Na - 310 to 750 - £-5.87
Stewart Cink - 510 to 1000 - £-4.9
Scott Stallings - 990 to 1000 - £-0.1
Rickie Fowler - 120 to 1000 - £-8.8
Patrick Cantlay - 970 to 1000 - £-0.3
Thomas Bjorn - 260 to 1000 - £-7.4
Kevin Chappell - 990 to 1000 - £-0.1
Graeme McDowell - 90 to 740 - £-8.78
Robert Karlsson - 170 to 900 - £-8.11
David Toms - 250 to 1000 - £-7.5
Trevor Immelman - 150 to 1000 - £-8.5
Martin Laird - 180 to 1000 - £-8.2
Edoardo Molinari - 330 to 1000 - £-6.7
Anders Hansen - 600 to 1000 - £-4
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - 650 to 1000 - £-3.5
Scott Verplank - 970 to 1000 - £-0.3
Positives: -
Rory McIlroy - 8 to 4.4 - £8.18
Lee Westwood - 23 to 8 - £18.75
Phil Mickelson - 13.5 to 10.5 - £2.86
Bubba Watson - 55 to 14.5 - £27.93
Sergio Garcia - 75 to 18.5 - £30.54
Jason Dufner - 140 to 17.5 - £70
Louis Oosthuizen - 90 to 19.5 - £36.15
Fred Couples - 260 to 26 - £90
Matt Kuchar - 60 to 27 - £12.22
Nick Watney - 65 to 38 - £7.11
Miguel Angel Jimenez - 320 to 44 - £62.73
Paul Lawrie - 380 to 60 - £53.33
Aaron Baddeley - 140 to 65 - £11.54
Henrik Stenson - 210 to 70 - £20
Peter Hanson - 210 to 75 - £18
Charles Howell III - 190 to 90 - £11.11
Gary Woodland - 140 to 100 - £4
Ben Crane - 350 to 110 - £21.82
Vijay Singh - 360 to 100 - £26
Jim Furyk - 120 to 100 - £2
Y.E. Yang - 160 to 110 - £4.55
Sean OHair - 210 to 140 - £5
Jonathan Byrd - 430 to 250 - £7.2
Francesco Molinari - 310 to 300 - £0.33
Negatives: -
Tiger Woods - 6.2 to 42 - £-8.52
Justin Rose - 32 to 75 - £-5.73
Hunter Mahan - 36 to 85 - £-5.76
Adam Scott - 34 to 110 - £-6.91
Padraig Harrington - 130 to 140 - £-0.71
Ian Poulter - 110 to 170 - £-3.53
Luke Donald - 17.5 to 250 - £-9.3
Charl Schwartzel - 48 to 550 - £-9.13
Geoff Ogilvy - 90 to 220 - £-5.91
Zach Johnson - 130 to 260 - £-5
Fredrik Jacobson - 330 to 400 - £-1.75
Sang-Moon Bae - 240 to 400 - £-4
Webb Simpson - 70 to 480 - £-8.54
Bill Haas - 100 to 640 - £-8.44
Martin Kaymer - 85 to 800 - £-8.94
Keegan Bradley - 38 to 1000 - £-9.62
Angel Cabrera - 110 to 1000 - £-8.9
Brandt Snedeker - 90 to 900 - £-9
Bo Van Pelt - 75 to 1000 - £-9.25
Steve Stricker - 55 to 1000 - £-9.45
Ross Fisher - 390 to 1000 - £-6.1
Kevin Na - 310 to 750 - £-5.87
Stewart Cink - 510 to 1000 - £-4.9
Scott Stallings - 990 to 1000 - £-0.1
Rickie Fowler - 120 to 1000 - £-8.8
Patrick Cantlay - 970 to 1000 - £-0.3
Thomas Bjorn - 260 to 1000 - £-7.4
Kevin Chappell - 990 to 1000 - £-0.1
Graeme McDowell - 90 to 740 - £-8.78
Robert Karlsson - 170 to 900 - £-8.11
David Toms - 250 to 1000 - £-7.5
Trevor Immelman - 150 to 1000 - £-8.5
Martin Laird - 180 to 1000 - £-8.2
Edoardo Molinari - 330 to 1000 - £-6.7
Anders Hansen - 600 to 1000 - £-4
Gonzalo Fernandez-Castano - 650 to 1000 - £-3.5
Scott Verplank - 970 to 1000 - £-0.3
-
Euler - Archangel Professional
- Posts: 6175
- Joined: Wed Nov 10, 2010 2:39 pm
- Location: Bet Angel HQ
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