I read Peter's blog last time around and have dutched some of the high odds looking for them to drop at the cut..just need a few of the unlikely contenders to make it through....
Anyway, I was looking for other trading tips and came across this, which seems logical..so hope someone might make some use of it?? :-
Betfair markets are live from the first shot of the Masters to the last. Here are four tips to keep in mind while betting in-play throughout the tournament
Lay heavily odds-on challengers for a top-five finish
This rule could be applied to any tournament, rather than just specifically the Masters. Golf is such a volatile sport, always offering the potential of dramatic turnarounds, that it is usually worth laying players at very short odds-on in-running for the place markets. Once the tournament reaches the final nine holes, chasers are bound to take risks that can easily lead to costly disasters, especially given that few at this level have reason to be too concerned about the financial implications of finishing sixth rather than second.
Think of the recent WGC-Cadillac Championship, where Doral's Blue Monster typically played havoc with the leaderboard. Keegan Bradley was favourite to win the event down the back nine and trading around 1.15 to make the top-five, yet a couple of disasters later he'd dropped out of contention, eventually finish eighth. Even more dramatically in last year's Masters, Rory McIlroy, KJ Choi and Angel Cabrera all held favouritism at one stage on Sunday, yet none of them finished in the top-five.
Lay players after completing the front-nine
Many a Masters has been lost on the 10th, 11th and 12th holes at Augusta, as Rory McIlroy will testify. Twelve months ago he took the lead into the final back-nine, hit his drive on the 10th out of bounds and by the time he'd finished the 12th, was out of the tournament. All three holes are brutal. In the last five renewals, the par-four 10th has thrice ranked first or second hardest on the course and always amongst the toughest six. The infamous par-four 11th that starts Amen Corner was the hardest hole in three of the last five years and never ranked lower than fourth. The par-three 12th isn't quite so bad as birdies are possible, but errant tee shots usually find the water, bunkers or azaleas, bringing very big scores into the equation. Last year it ranked second hardest.
Back players once safely aboard the 12th green
Once a player has avoided those hazards off the 12th tee, however, they can breathe a sigh of relief and look forward to the most generous section of the course. Just as the previous three holes end many Masters bids, the winner usually makes his move with a run over the next three. First, to finish Amen Corner there's a genuine eagle opportunity in the form of a reachable par-five, measuring only 510 yards. Last year it was the easiest hole on the course. Next, the 14th is the easiest non par-five on the course, averaging under par in two of the last three Masters. To close this easy stretch, there's another reachable 530-yard par-five which again offers an eagle opportunity. Throughout the week, many players will transform their position over this trio of holes, offering smart in-running traders an opportunity to profit as their odds shorten.
Back players close to the clubhouse lead after they've finished their rounds
Apart from the par-fives, Augusta is a very tough course so once a player is in the clubhouse, within close touch of the lead, he can be happy to have completed a good day's work, sit back and watch others struggle. This is particularly true on the opening two days. Usually the best of the opening morning starters will see their odds shorten during the approximate 24 hour gap between their first and second rounds. Later starters invariably get the worst of conditions, before having to get up early and play another long round on a tough layout. By the time Thursday's early starters begin their second round, most of the field will be out of contention, so the best placed among them will be among a select group with a chance to make a big move on Friday afternoon. Again, in-running traders who time their bets well can often make a profit in between rounds by correctly predicting these fluctuations.