US Masters 2011

[Euler]

How annoying is that jingle they keep playing when going for a break. What is all that about?

Good start by McIlroy.

[Joshy]

I know what you mean Peter - it's become very annoying.

In your latest blog post, you admitted you don't know much about Quiros, but you still backed him on Betfair. I'm curious to find out why.

Could you please shed some light on how you selected the golfers you backed on this tournament?

Happy trading,

- Josh.

[Euler]

I'm just looking for outsiders than may come into contention. You can use form, prior tournaments or luck to find them! I usually try to put some science into it, but cover off other players in the hope of catching a few big moves.

110409 - The cut - Copy.png

[Joshy]

Thanks, what you say makes sense and I'm glad you caught some tidy swings.

- Josh.

[daveh]

I have a few questions on trading the golf markets that I could use some of your guidance with Peter,

I have tried to trade the US masters market, I backed a large number of the field with odds of 95 to 200. I decided on about 17 runners from this range. Because I was experimenting I used small stakes of 2 pounds on all of my selections.

1)I have notice in your screen shots from last year and this year your backing profit is roughly the same throughout the field, is this an important part of this strategy, having a target profit? Why so?

So I had a few contenders in the top of the field, who’s prices had shortened considerably and there were also a large portion of my selections which were way down the field and who were likely not to make the cut.

Seeing as I had never traded a golf market before I was under the impression that once the cut was made that all the players who didn’t make the cut would be removed from the market and the book percentage would then be reformed on the remaining field and there would be some sort of reduction factor compensation would appear and then I would trade on this and hedge a profit on the field. Needless to say this didn’t happen, I traded my profitable positions but I barely broke even on my trading.

2) Is it a mistake to use the same exact stake with this trading strategy, ie put 2pounds on the majority of the field over 100 hoping for a streamer or is it be better to set a target profit and varying the stake, using the dutching tool?

3) When do you decide to trade out of the position? By which I mean do you hold on until the cut is made or simply trade out when you think the price has moved as much as it can to make the trade favorable?

Sorry if these questions are naive but I am still learning, Thanks

[LeTiss 4pm]

That's an almighty choke from Mcllroy

I hope that doesn't have a serious impact on him

[aligammack]

Huge choke LeTiss!

Before the final round he was trading around 1.7 if I remember correctly. Despite a 4 shot lead I couldn't help think this was too low.
A lot can happen during 18 holes on the final day at the masters as we saw.

Didn't do anything about it tho. Hindsight is 20 20 vision.

[PeterLe]

I only got home 45 mins or so before the end of this and thought I would make a quick few bob.
I was surprised how easy it was to trade. My strategy was simply lay the leader (Until such point that it looked a certainty).
I was only using £50 stakes, put around £3.5k through and greened up for £36.
I mainly traded in between shots and 'filled the gaps'.
Will def trade golf again, although not sure whether this strategy would work every-time??
Fantastic finish though!
Regards
Peter

[Euler]

I did a radio interview on Saturday were I said McIlroy was worth a lay at a short price. I really wanted him to win but felt he would slip un on the last day. The pressure must be intense in such circumstances.

[Euler]

daveh, this was covered during the course. Drop me a note and I will refresh your memory.