the price of current score at half time

[herbie]

I was wondering if one of you kind people with more understanding of the world of odds could help.

Is it possible to work out what the inplay cs current score odds would be at Ht before kick off just using the CS 0-0 odds and the 0-0 ht odds?

The man city v Swansea game is currently
CS 0-0 15.0 = 6.66% chance game will end 0-0
therefore 93.33% chance goals will be scored within the game

0-0ht 3.65 = 28.57% chance HT will be 0-0
therefore 71.42% chance goals will be scored before HT.
From this information only can I work out what the Cs 0-0 odds would be at HT if no goals where scored in the first half.
..and if so how would I do it?
thanks
Herbie

[mcfc1981]

if u backed 0-0 at 3.65 for £10 return £26.50
lay 0-0 at 15 for £10 leaves u -£140

now if its 0-0 at ht u would expect to hedge out ur £140 loss for ur £26.50 profit so odds would be about 4.3

[RafterP]

You should be able to work it out using the soccer mystic function on Betangel

Good luck

[herbie]

thank you mcfc1981 exactly what I'm looking for.. I thought it was in there....Rafter I've used soccer mystic alot thanks, but I need some kind of equation that I can use in excel that works with the available odds without getting bogged down in Poisson theory.. once again thank you both for you replies

[mcfc1981]

4.4 currently, not bad

[herbie]

mcfc1981.. you were near spot on there... obviously the market is expecting a goal from man city second half possibly so hence the slight bounce.
I was wondering if you could help my tired brain further please.

if u backed 0-0 at 3.65 for £10 return £26.50
lay 0-0 at 15 for £10 leaves u -£140

I've got that bit... no problem...

Now it's this bit that I cant get my head round...

now if its 0-0 at ht u would expect to hedge out ur £140 loss for ur £26.50 profit so odds would be about 4.3

I understand the concept of hedging out at half time... but how do I get the 4.3.. can you please show me a simple calculation to show this if it's not to much bother.

cheers
herbie

[mcfc1981]

i dont know how u work that out i just backed the 0-0 and went down the bet angel ladder to see where the hedge out -£26.50 was

[herbie]

thanks for the help mcfc1981... if anyone else does know how I would work this out to use in excel and wouldnt mind parting with the info, you would help a man sleep again..

regards
herbie

[nomadic]

By my calc, the breakeven hedge-out price (excluding commission which is actually an important factor since you are trading in separate markets) would be 4.11 in the example used above.

And in order to come up with the breakeven odds of 4.11, it's as simple as just dividing the FT 0-0 odds by the HT 0-0 odds. In this example, 15.00 divided by 3.65 = 4.11.


Further logical details if you're interested:
If you are assuming you have a profit of £26.50 from backing 0-0 HT, and want to trade out of your £10 Lay on 0-0 full-time, then you are trying to solve for a combination of odds/stake that will result in a £26.50 loss in the FT Correct Score market across all results. And that amount would be £36.50 backing 0-0 at odds of 4.11.

In the event the game ends 0-0, then you have a £140 loss (in the full time correct score market) partially offset by a winning bet of £113.50 (£36.5 @ odds of 4.11). In the event a goal is scored in the 2nd half, your initial lay bet of £10 becomes a winner, but is offset by the bet of £36.50 which becomes a loser.

[herbie]

thanks for your input Nomadic..... I now can continue on with my idea and sleep better

regards
herbie