QE3?

[superfrank]

btw, anyone who thinks that it's a coincidence that markets have have crashed in the last few weeks (ahead of Helicopter Ben's QE3 Jackson's Hole speech on Friday) is more gullible than the average retail investor who gets screwed by the bankers every time.

[Ferru123]

At the risk of sounding gullible, I think concerns about the Euro and poor economic news were the cause of the steam.

I'd have thought that the expectation of QE 3 would cause equities to drift, in anticipation of a decision that would probably cause inflation in the main equity indices.

Jeff

[superfrank]

without QE poor economic news is a given; and the sovereign debt problems are nothing new - they were just given msm prominence at exactly the right time.

[Ferru123]

You seem to be suggesting a conspiracy...

I'm not a big believer in conspiracy theories - I don't believe that Wall St has been dancing to the tune of a few real-life Gordon Gekkos - but anything's possible!

Jeff

without QE poor economic news is a given; and the sovereign debt problems are nothing new - they were just given msm prominence at exactly the right time.

[superfrank]

You seem to be suggesting a conspiracy...

I'm not a conspiracy theorist generally, but in the case of finance I make an exception. Consider the extremes that investment banks go to in order to make HFT effective and it's hardly a leap of faith to suggest they'd do anything in their interests to make money.

There's a fox in charge of the hen house.

edit: I re-read what I wrote, and I agree it's a bit far-fetched, I'm just surprised it took so long for stock markets to drop because the poor economic news had been around for quite a while and they are supposed to be forward looking indicators. Maybe what happened is that QE3 had been priced in but that, in the run up to Jackson's Hole, people got nervous about whether is would actually happen (and whether it would 'work' this time).

[superfrank]

carnage in the markets this afternoon after bad US unemployment numbers - initially the DAX rallied before plunging 300 points in about half an hour then bouncing sharply off the recent yearly lows.

those hoping to get in ahead of Uncle Ben's speech tmrw have probably had their stops wiped out already.

interesting times.

[andyfuller]

Is QE3 really the dead cert everyone seems to be making out? Watching the tv it seems people think it is a done deal. So would it be an idea to short the markets and be long gold on the chance QE3 doesn't happen?

The markets seemed to have this week taken account of QE3 or do you expect markets to rally more immediately if QE3 does go ahead?

[Ferru123]

Is QE3 really the dead cert everyone seems to be making out? Watching the tv it seems people think it is a done deal.

It's common for TV commentators to speak with conviction about something in the financial world, and then be proved wrong.

I think all we can say is that Uncle Ben has form for using QE to tackle dire economic problems. But as for whether he'll pull the trigger tomorrow, if anyone knew for sure they'd be too busy selling the information for millions to appear on TV!

Jeff

[Ferru123]

PS Do you guys find that horse racing commentators also often spout a load of rubbish, often saying a horse is a dead cert, only for it to finish last, and overlooking value?

Jeff

It's common for TV commentators to speak with conviction about something in the financial world, and then be proved wrong.

[andyfuller]

It's common for TV commentators to speak with conviction about something in the financial world, and then be proved wrong.

I wasn't just talking about on the TV. Even on this forum it was coming across to me from comments that QE3 was a done deal.

I think all we can say is that Uncle Ben has form for using QE to tackle dire economic problems.

What is it they say about past performance not being an indicator of future performance

As for racing commentators there aren't many that will discuss value properly imo as they are only on screen that day. Value is a long term game and not a day long game, they need to try and get winners so as to look good on camera imo.