Scalping and coin tossing

[Euler]

When I've studied traders who don't know where their edge is or think it's mindset that is doing the trick, I've found out that what is actually happening is they are recognising patterns in the market that are generally positive.

I already know what these patterns are, but a lot of these traders don't go to that depth. I think this explains why some previously succesful traders eventually fall out of the market, they can't adapt when the market changes.

[CaerMyrddin]

That's interesting, as if they were set to recognize certain patterns that they learnt but were unable to learn new ones?

Maybe it's an ageing problem or maybe they were taught to trade, but never learnt by theirselves?

I don't know about you guys, but relying on a given edge isn't problem proof too. Since I started trading I lost 2 edges I'd found, so they simply don't last forever. There is always a chance of being outrun by someone smarter, faster or whatever and lose your edge. As someone would say, adapt and survive

[Ferru123]

I think that the fundamental psychological dynamics behind markets will never change. People have studied 19th century markets, and found the same patterns that you see today. People have always blindly followed the crowd, for example, and probably always will.

With Betfair, however, I think that changes in the racing industry may affect what happens on Betfair. For example, if the bookies take less money from the punter, they will hedge less money on Betfair, which may affect the types of market that develop.

What do you guys think?

Jeff

Since I started trading I lost 2 edges I'd found, so they simply don't last forever.

[enzabella2009]

That's interesting, as if they were set to recognize certain patterns that they learnt but were unable to learn new ones?

Maybe it's an ageing problem or maybe they were taught to trade, but never learnt by theirselves?

I don't know about you guys, but relying on a given edge isn't problem proof too. Since I started trading I lost 2 edges I'd found, so they simply don't last forever. There is always a chance of being outrun by someone smarter, faster or whatever and lose your edge. As someone would say, adapt and survive

I bet that those 2 edges you have lost can still be applied under specific circustances. I don`t usually analyze markets that last only 5 minutes. Perhaps I have placed a bet on that same market in the morning but, not for scalping. I almost certain to analyze only bets I have placed many hours earlier, all the rest are just fast oppurtunitys to take or lose.

[Euler]

Jeff, As well as messing around on Betfair and Betdaq on Saturday I also scalped with £5 stakes. I did 22 races like this and won on 18 (78%) netting £21.98 in total.

[Ferru123]

Jeff, As well as messing around on Betfair and Betdaq on Saturday I also scalped with £5 stakes. I did 22 races like this and won on 18 (78%) netting £21.98 in total.

Wow!

Hopefully you'll be able to show me how you weave that kind of magic when I come and see you (although I'm not expecting that kind of performance from a £5 stake right away! ).

Do you know off hand how many trades you made in total to achieve that amount?

Jeff

[Euler]

The interesting thing about this method is it's broadly similar to where I started 11 years ago, I've just refined it a bit over the years and got better at doing it. I just do it on auto pilot now. It works well at lower stake levels but starts to get harder when the stakes go up. But that's only to be expected as your money starts to influence the markets when stakes rise.

[LeTiss 4pm]

Jeff, As well as messing around on Betfair and Betdaq on Saturday I also scalped with £5 stakes. I did 22 races like this and won on 18 (78%) netting £21.98 in total.

You must be placing a large amount of trades for returns like that!

[Zenyatta]

I think it's time to concede...Peter really does have magic powers of some kind.

[Euler]

LeTiss - I can only enter a new trade when the previous one is complete so I am hostage to fill rate. If the fill rate is good I will do well, but that's why you see me moaning about fill rate so often.