The weather has been awful of late and my health has been poor - again! I have therefore done very little with the poor racing on offer.
I had a quick scan of the cards today and was quite surprised to see Emirates Jack
as the favourite for this race. Admittedly it is nothing more than an egg and spoon race so perhaps he has nothing to beat. However, from a pedigree and form point of view you would be taking a real leap of faith if you wanted to back this horse.
His sire Red Ransom was a sprinter and a good one at that. His progeny were also mainly sprinters and they seemed to excel on a sound surface. From a form point of view Emirates Jack seems to be a horse without a trip - they've tried him at a few distances and he's not looked like a winner at any of them! On his last race he had a poor head carriage almost as if he didn't like the headgear OR perhaps the jockey was under instructions to keep a tight hold of him. That should get the conspiracy theorists interested! If you look at his action it is a fast action with very little knee action. That is why I am surprised to see him running on the slow surface at Southwell which is being harrowed much deeper due to the weather.
Anyway he has now joined the David Simcock yard and they have removed the headgear. I also note there has been a small amount of money for him from 13 into 4.20
If you had >10.0 you have value and I for one would be trading out now. I would not be surprised to see this drift back out later.
Trying to read between the lines, I can only think they perhaps gave this horse a gallop on a slow surface and he went okay??? I cannot know that and I certainly wouldn't rely on that type of advice or thinking.
In conclusion this horse could be laid out for this race and win well or it is going to finish nowhere. I am not convinced 8f on a slow surface is going to suit this horse and over time laying this type of horse will provide a profit. I would not put anyone off a small lay in the place market as it's ~1.83 and it should not be that low.
It's a lay to back strategy IMHO as this horse has always been held up and never gets in a blow. At Southwell you need to be up with the pace most of the time - if they jump this horse out and he gets to the lead or close to it then it is a real change of tactics and it may sound a small alarm bell.
Good luck in whatever you do - remember small stakes and don't lay for huge sums. This is a dreadful race and just about anything can and will happen!