Cheltenham 2012

[Bet Angel]

With respect, can you post in your own area of the forum, which we have created, rather than hijacking existing threads. I'm sure people will respond there if it's interesting. We don't want the forum to be used like this.

[hgodden]

I'm having a mare and am thoroughly hacked off with trading the horse racing markets!

Markets seem to be awful for me. Markets feel like a wednesday night kempton market rather than a buxom cheltenham one.

I guess the trouble with trading Cheltenham is that you've only got a few races per day, and if you're using larger stakes and something big goes against you in one or two races then it makes a big difference to what you've ended up with for the day. I had a good day yesterday thanks to three races working very well for me but it can always go the other way and always feels like trading on a bit of a knife edge.

The screen below with the enormous spike at the end that looks like the kind of graph you see a few seconds after it had been turned in play was actually taken pre race. There was a massive back bet that seemed to take out a good few rows of several 1000s stacked up, without warning. Either the amount matched was larger than what was showing on the graph or the same person who smashed the spike in cancelled all the orders below it...

[jimrobo]

A good example. Exactly what I mean. Price seemed to collapse one way or the other very easy. I would expected a little more resistance.

[Stewart]

Funny but I actually enjoyed the trading yesterday as there were some big moves.

Maybe this was fuelled by me laying the 1st and 2nd in the first race and getting egg on my face. My other bet was antepost on Hurricane Fly so bad on the betting front offset by good day on Trading.

Peter - noted that you said not alot in between but I got some good results from South and Sedg

[Euler]

Based on yesterdays data: -

Volumes waiting to be matched are higher than last year. They are running at around ten times normal levels. The rate at which those orders are filling are only six times normal level so there is quite a big gap in the increase in money waiting to be matched versus the rate at which they are matched. This has the knock on effect of making an order less reliable. So it's no surprise to find that the fill rate at Cheltenham is poorer and the market is more volatile than normal. Not enough data to comment on overall volatility at the moment.

Volumes are up a similar amount on Betdaq but a little more stable. Difficult to unpick the fill rate data as they don't expose enough accurate data from the API.

[andyfuller]

What did you see Peter that makes you think it is done to trick bots? And what made you think he was holding the price down?

Bit near to racing so sure you are busy but if you get chance later Peter could you expand on the above from yesterday re. the flasher would be interested to hear your views.

I usually find with Cheltenham that as the week goes on I get better results mainly I feel because I get used to the markets more. These kind of markets are not around very often so I get little practice at them but I trade thousands of 'rubbish' markets over the year.

The opportunity for putting more through the markets is there with Cheltenham but I have to say I prefer the 'rubbish' we get most days over Cheltenham and always have done. I don't get worried about not making a mint at Cheltenham because I see it as more as a bonus, to me the important thing is getting the every day markets correct. If you can crack those but not Cheltenham you can still have an outstanding year, but if you crack Cheltenham but not the everyday 'rubbish' you are highly unlikely to have much of a year.

Crack both of them and you are obviously on for a good year.

For me it is more about the racing this week and enjoying it - make a few quid and it is all the better

If I get chance I am going to have a look back at previous year threads on Cheltenham and see what we all had to say about it back then. I think that could be quite interesting.

Peter - noted that you said not alot in between but I got some good results from South and Sedg

Stewart I agree, I got some excellent results at Sedgefield yesterday, not so much at Southwell. One thing I remember from past years is that you can get a spill over from Cheltenham to these other courses as people are 'in the mood' for it and have often got bigger banks and get a little carried away still thinking they are trading a Cheltenham market.

Peter - do you have any stats on the other meetings to see if there was any extra money etc at them?

[pdupre1961]

More money matched on BetDaq for the 1st race today.

Are we dealing with the same calculations...

[pdupre1961]

BetDaq £2.97m
Betfair £2.64m

Does this mean anything?

[herbie]

When price collapses on higher odds (4's+) I feel the price collapses inward and not outward more often...does anyone have any opinion on this please?

[hgodden]

Betdaq calculates their volume differently. From those figures far more would have actually been matched on betfair