SNIPERS

[Alpha322]

Yes, value trading is the only way to beat the manipulators, unfortunately knowing which horses are value requires a very high skill level (i.e. detailed knowledge of UK horse racing).

That's patently untrue. I know pro traders who happily admit that they know nothing about the horses they are trading, and work solely from the information in the ladders and on the charts...

Jeff

i do, although i know a bit about the horses trainers etc, but i dont look at that anymore like i use to when i picked up a paper and went to the local bookies, i do exactly what Jeff says the ladder and price movements are my friend couldnt careless who wins the race or football match dont even care about the teams or where there playing

[Zenyatta]

Hey each to their own Alpha and Jeff, but I think value trading has the potential to be much much more profitable than simply following the price movements (I think Jolly has demonstrated that).

[Ferru123]

Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?

Jeff

Hey each to their own Alpha and Jeff, but I think value trading has the potential to be much much more profitable than simply following the price movements (I think Jolly has demonstrated that).

[LeTiss 4pm]

Kicking myself really

I ended up making £22.98 on Oosthuizen by greening up at 3.35 when it neared it's conclusion.
2 holes before however, my finger was hovvering over the confirm bets window when I was about to green up at 1.61 for £69.44 profit.

I decided to let it run because I fancied him to finish the job

Bloody idiot - I posted this on the wrong thread!!

[74.5]

Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?

Jeff

Suppose that connections subtly talk down the chances of the horse.Up go the odds because the market begins laying it.When the odds are good and high,in comes the connections and start backing it because they know that the horse is a fit as a lop and has a good chance of winning.In this case,the odds increase a relatively large amount due to the market laying it and fall a relatively small amount due to connections backing it.

IMHO,the market believes what it is told to believe-not only by connections but by the press also-which is why I don't read/listen to what the connections say/press prints.
74.5

[Ferru123]

Hi 74.5 -

The market can be very stupid sometimes. Often people will bet for a horse because it's an odds-on RP nap, or because there's a big steam on and they assume that someone knows something. But on a macro level, the market is extremely efficient, and IMHO very few people are sufficiently skilled at handicapping to be able to beat the market over time through looking at fundamental factors (form, ground, draw, weight carried, etc).

Jeff

IMHO,the market believes what it is told to believe-not only by connections but by the press also-which is why I don't read/listen to what the connections say/press prints.
74.5

[Zenyatta]

Do you think it's ever possible for you to be confident that you know more than the market, whose price takes into account both information in the public domain as well as that known only by connections?

Jeff

Look at Jolly Green's Lay tips. He gets very few wrong no? I'm a backer myself. And the answer is yes, I can be very confident I know more than the market, because I've been at it for nearly 2 years.

P.S I've come to the conclusion that the connections of the horse are often the worst judges of their own horse. From the thread on Trading Quotes:

"If ever an owner should tell you, "Back mine" -- don't you be such a flat.
He knows his own cunning no doubt -- does he know what the others are at?
Find out what he's frightened of most, and invest a few dollars on that."

[Ferru123]

Look at Jolly Green's Lay tips. He gets very few wrong no?

JG may be one of the few people who can be sure when the market has got it wrong. But I'd need more than a handful of posts of say one way or another.

A mate of mine used to be a pro layer. Then suddenly he went months and months where he made very little money, and he eventually became a trader. What may have happened is that the market eventually became more efficient, and starting taking into account the factors he took into account which gave him his edge.

I'm a backer myself. And the answer is yes, I can be very confident I know more than the market, because I've been at it for nearly 2 years.

I have a spreadsheet which shows I made a 15% level stakes profit backing horses at 9/1 and above, over something like 5,000 horses. The chances of my edge being due to randomness must be something like one in a trillion. However, I am now back in 9 to 5 work, as I had a long run where I made absolutely no money. The point I'm making is that, even if you have a spreadsheet showing an overall profit, and you've done Chi squared analysis that shows that the profit isn't due to luck, there's nothing to say that the market or racing itself won't change, and eliminate your edge.

P.S I've come to the conclusion that the connections of the horse are often the worst judges of their own horse.

If a connection were to advise me to lay his selection, I wouldn't, as he might be telling me that as he wants people to lay it, so he can back it at a better price. But if I were at my local bookie, and say a stable lad placing a £100 bet on a horse trained by his yard, then I'd definitely be betting!

Jeff

[andyfuller]

If a connection were to advise me to lay his selection, I wouldn't, as he might be telling me that as he wants people to lay it, so he can back it at a better price. But if I were at my local bookie, and say a stable lad placing a £100 bet on a horse trained by his yard, then I'd definitely be betting!

Jeff

May I suggest you never visit Newmarket. You won't have any money left if you were to use your stable lad theory

[lesblakeman]

At least 9 out of 10 late "gambles" are on course bookmaker "lemming" scams , no "real" money involved at all.