Zenyatta wrote:Look at Jolly Green's Lay tips. He gets very few wrong no?
JG may be one of the few people who can be sure when the market has got it wrong. But I'd need more than a handful of posts of say one way or another.
A mate of mine used to be a pro layer. Then suddenly he went months and months where he made very little money, and he eventually became a trader. What may have happened is that the market eventually became more efficient, and starting taking into account the factors he took into account which gave him his edge.
Zenyatta wrote:I'm a backer myself. And the answer is yes, I can be very confident I know more than the market, because I've been at it for nearly 2 years.
I have a spreadsheet which shows I made a 15% level stakes profit backing horses at 9/1 and above, over something like 5,000 horses. The chances of my edge being due to randomness must be something like one in a trillion. However, I am now back in 9 to 5 work, as I had a long run where I made absolutely no money. The point I'm making is that, even if you have a spreadsheet showing an overall profit, and you've done Chi squared analysis that shows that the profit isn't due to luck, there's nothing to say that the market or racing itself won't change, and eliminate your edge.
Zenyatta wrote:P.S I've come to the conclusion that the connections of the horse are often the worst judges of their own horse.
If a connection were to advise me to lay his selection, I wouldn't, as he might be telling me that as he wants people to lay it, so he can back it at a better price. But if I were at my local bookie, and say a stable lad placing a £100 bet on a horse trained by his yard, then I'd definitely be betting!