mugsgame wrote:Zenyatta wrote:I do wonder specifically how many people are actually successful traders for the UK horse race trading vey near the off (5-10 minutes before off). I suspect not many, and fear this particular niche might be too tough for most people.
This is without doubt the one of the most volatile and unpredictable form of trading, it seems it what every newbie wants to do. Is this a mistake? If anyone is struggling trying to crack this is it worth taking a step back and maybe trying something else to trade on?
I don't know if this is any use to anyone, but this is my style of trading pre race and a few pointers that I use.
Try to be more selective about which races to trade.I know of many who go from race to race like a loony. You can make a few quid race after race and on the last race lose the whole days earnings and some. Look at trading less races that have a good "shape". If you have the patience (which is the most important and most overlooked aspect of trading IMHO) you can watch 20 races and then trade 1 and win a days wages.
A suggestion for those struggling is maybe find a race where the market thinks it is a 2 horse race. I'll set up a fictitious race.
The prices are 2.02, 2.76, 40, 44, 50+ the rest (another 6 runners).
You will find 2 or 3 races a day like this. You can pretty much forget the rags, although you need to keep and eye out in case 1 moves in significantly. So concentrate at the 2 at the head of the market. There are 2 scenarios here.
1) 1 or more outsiders move in and not a lot happens at the head of the market except a small drift.
2) 1 of the favs moves in which means..............yes that's right! The other moves out. The trick is waiting until that happens then jumping on the gravy train to untold wealth.
Try to get a grasp of how a market works, that is fundamentally the most important thing you need to learn. An efficient market is at 100%, the way this is calculated is by dividing 100/the odds. So a runner trading at 2.0 would be 100/2 =50% of the book. (remember the book adds up to 100) that means the rest of the field will add up to 50%.
If 1 runner is 50% of the book and the other is 36% (100/2,76) that means that 86% of the book is concentrated on 2 runners. They dominate the market and another runner would have to move a huge amount to impact these 2 prices. Which leaves us to concentrate on 2. What you are looking for next is a sign that something is going to happen, like i said it always will. So what are the signs?
Look at the range of prices that the runner has been trading at, if you look at the ladder you will be able to see this. The critical points are the bottom and top (resistance points) When it gets there something will happen, if it "breaks through" then it will almost certainly go much further. If it doesn't then it will "bounce". It rarely just sits at the end of the trading range dormant. What usually influences this is the other horses. Remember what happens to 1 has to effect all the others, the one most likely to be effected is the next shortest price runner (2nd fav in this case)
A good trade would be if the fav has reached the bottom of it's range, which means punters are reluctant to take a lower price that this, and the 2nd fav if near the top end of it's trading range, which means punters are reluctant to LAY a bigger price. If the fav were to hit the bottom and "bounce" the 2nd fav would stream in, this will gather momentum, don't be greedy and don't use a stop loss. It is not unusual for the prices to jump around. It is the medium term trend (swing) you are trying to capture.
With practice, patience and enough matched you can make a living trading 1or 2 races a day.
This is simplistic and there are things that can go wrong. Watch the market and try to understand what the market is doing. See how the movement of 1 runner effects the others and in what proportion. This is KEY. Some use the excellent graphs BA has. For me all I use if the BF market graph within BA with a 10 second refresh, the ladder tab with both horses on, and TELETEXT live shows. Don't over think it, don't over complicate it. It really isn't rocket science, and that's the main issue for most I fear. Take a step back, use low stakes to practice. Trading horses at odds on a 10 tick wrong decision will cost you a fiver (to give it some perspective). Before you make every trade you need to set a point that you will exit, don't set this too tight. A 2 or 3 tick's is no good. But you need an escape route. Letting it go and hoping it will come back or even worse letting it go in play is trading suicide and amateur. Don't do it!
If you spend enough time watching the markets and understanding what's happening you will crack it eventually.
I have talked a fair bit about perspective, and here is something to think about. Good traders will earn more that a doctor does (which is frankly disgusts me), that doctor spent maybe 6 or 7 years learning his trade. It doesn't take that long to learn to trade, but you need to put the hours in for sure. The other thing is that doctor didn't get to operate on a patient after a few days did he? He learnt the procedure and maybe practiced it in the classroom lots and lots of times, until he became so good at it when he did finally have a patient on the operating table in front of him, he had the skill and confidence to do the business.
There are no half measures here. To a certain extent, if you can trade with £50 you can trade with £100 or £1000 (as long as the market is liquid enough) The level of skill is exactly the same, the reason you entered and exited the market should be the same. Once you can effectively trade on 2 runner markets like this and your confidence and experience grows, then more complex markets can be tackled.
The main problem with this is if you have a limited time to trade on your day off from work, sitting there all afternoon and not making any trades is tough, and the discipline that requires is rare to find. But what is better, sitting there and not losing half the wages you have worked so hard for or feeling a bit frustrated but living to fight another day. My priory is not to LOSE and PROTECT my bank at all costs. The rest comes I promise.
1) Keep it simple
2) Be patient
3) Have realistic expectations
4) Be patient
5) Understand the market
6) Have a reason to enter the trade and a reason to exit it
7) Have an escape route planned, and stick to it
8) Be patient
and finally........ Be patient
Does this make sense to anyone?
I don't have all the answers, the way I trade suites me and my attitude to risk. It works for me but it may not work for you. Take out the bits that make sense and discard the rest. Eventually you will form you own style. There is no "holy grail" and there is no easy road to Betfair nirvana. I wish you all well.
I was reading through a post last night and read this good post by Mugsgame (MG), which points out that quality rather than quantity is the order of the day. A good swing trade with a large sum can provide an excellent lifestyle.
I have only really ever scalped markets and it begs the question "What makes a good swing trade opportunity"
MG talks about "The shape" of a market and I know what he means, when you look through guardian in a morning, do the swing opportunities jump out at you? I know the Barney Curley races often swing and wondered what else influences it?
I thought that it would be a good debate and worthy of its own thread
PS If i get time I may edit a scalping bot to look for the markets MG suggests and see if it is net positive