Thursday, April 30, 2009

Chaos at Folkstone

Not sure I have seen a race like this for some time. Two jockeys chucked before the start on the way to post. Horses run to post. Another horse chucks a jockey at the start. All the horses load when one plays up and gets stuck under the gate. All horses come out and are reloaded, another horse fails to run!

5 out 10 horses played up of which two were withdrawn, not sure I have ever seen that before!

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Champions league - Past performance

When you read a financial sales letter or advertisment, they always put that little caveat in that "past performance is not an indicator of future performance", how apt in the current environment!!! You may be interested to know this often afflicts the betting market also.

It seems to be a classic case of placing too much reliance on past activity. What you often tend to find is that if something unusual has happened recently people think it has a higher chance of happening again. It's like watching people playing roulette and upping their stake, just because red has come in six times in a row.

For a more recent example look at tonights champions league. Based upon the free scoring quarter finals you may find that tonights market gets mis-priced at the higher end of the market, i.e. it makes sense to lay and vice versa. I'm tempted to put this into use tonight on the correct score market. It may not work tonight but I am pretty sure that over the long term I will end ahead as that's always been the case.

You may want to try using the ducthing to a profit target option to take advantage of the many opportunities and potential strategies in play on the correct score market. I've embedded a video of this function. This is where I will be lurking tonight.

Wednesday, April 22, 2009

Long term trading using trailing stops

Further to my last post on the blog if you are looking to catch longer, bigger market moves, then this is a useful set up to do exactly that. The great thing about this type of trade is you don't need to actively manage it much. This means you can do this on multiple markets all at the same time and Bet Angel Guardian will look after this for you while you get on with your normal trading. Give it a try on small stakes to try it out.

Friday, April 17, 2009

Un-shifting sands?

I spend hours watching the markets, even if I am not in them. People often ask me how they have changed.

Over the nine years I have been in the markets, they have changed a lot. Curiously though, markets are not that different from the recent past, though I guess they are more competititve than a few years ago. We noticed a shift in 2005 when we launched Bet Angel, I'm not going to accept credit for that though. It just seemed at that point the trading market matured, It left a number of 'old style' traders in its wake. That's why we watch the market, we are keen to understand it's current shape.

In terms of how the market reacts and moves, you will be interested to know that the current market still acts in pretty much the same way it has done for a few years. What we are looking for is a seismic shift in the market. In recent times all we have seen is the odd tremor, but like a San Fransican sitting in the Bay Area, we haven't had a 1906 yet. Thanks to this constant market watching over the years, I have learnt a great deal about what a day has in store, how it's likely to react and what the key markets are etc. etc.

One thing that has taken longer to get used to is seasonality, I am confident that this year we may have finally sussed the longer cycles in the market and their impact. It's made me more relaxed on the year as a whole. As we head through April and into May, things will start to get very busy.

Currently you will see some big moves in the market on quite a regular basis, a few years ago I wasn't sure why, but now I know to expect them and when. While not every body enjoys this type of volatility its throws up big opportunities and if you are alert to them, there are some big moves to catch out there at this time of year.

Tuesday, April 14, 2009

A classic case for lay the draw?

Both champions league matches tonight are interesting from the viewpoint that somebody HAS to score. Liverpool have a mountain to climb after their comprehensive defeat at home and they must score to have any chance. They have nothing to lose. Much depends on whether Chelsea kill the game off or simply pack men behind the ball. I'm not sure what Hiddinks instructions will be? It's quite possible they will just try to frustrate Liverpool and then catch them on the break when Liverpool push too far forward. Given history, this doesn't look like a good plan as one early goal could really fire Liverpool up. I suspect though that Chelsea will not be adventerous for the same reason.

The market is priced for 2.58 goals and a slight advantage to Chelsea, but only slight.

Bayern Munich however need a bigger miracle and playing at home must surely score at least once! I suspect this will be all out Bayern attack as it doesn't really matter if they can't score. Barca will surely just sit back and try and nick a goal if they can and kill the tie. Whatever happens, Bayern will be desperate to make amends for some poor performances and will almost certainly do anything to get a goal or two. Of the two matches this is the one most likely to see a goal and the market has priced in at least three. You can't have half a goal each so this looks like a good candidate for a lay the draw and trade out type position. There you go, I've cursed it now!

Make sure you use Soccer Mystic to work out your risk and profit scenarios for these games.

Monday, April 13, 2009

Mixed up Monday

Ah, it's that time of the year again when you are faced with the inpenetrable bank holiday markets. About a billion low quality races all going off at the same time! Often there is so much clashing and problems that next to nothing can be easily traded and if you can, you may not actually see the start itself. A risk in itself.

This particular Monday has never been a favourite of mine and two years ago I pulled in my second worst result ever on this day. As a consequence don't feel you are missing much by skipping today!

Still without full use of my hand I have little option but to be home today, so I may have a go at some very carefully selected races, but I doubt I'll all guns blazing today. Maybe you will get on with the markets today, but I know I traditionally haven't.

The busy summer is almost on us, have a rest and enjoy some time off.

Saturday, April 11, 2009

Good from bad

As I've mentioned before, having a positive outlook on things is always beneficial. When I was young, I used to think this was a motivational trick, but after a few years it began to dawn on me that always having a positive outlook was a useful trick. You tend to find in life that unexpected things happen for good and bad quite often. If you aren't ready for the upside you will often miss it. Friday and Saturday was a classic example!

While I'm lucky in some things, I'm not in others. With a day off yesterday I took the children swimming. Near the end of the session I decided to nip into the sauna. After I had warmed up, I stood up and...................... the next thing I knew I was flat on my back half in the sauna and half out the sauna. I'm still not sure what happened, but after laying in stunned silence for a short period of time one thing I did realise was that several things hurt. During my journey out of the sauna, I had successfully slammed my back on one of the benches, causing extensive bruising, ripped off a toe nail and had put out my hand to halt my fall. This successfully bent my fingers back and caused me to tear most of the supporting muscles in my hand. While my back is intact, my right hand is a write-off for the moment, as well as being double its normal size. So that's the bad, where is the good?

Last night I really could not get comfortable in bed and spent most of the night trying not to aggravate my wounds. I did manage to get some sleep but by 5 AM I was fed up trying to get comfortable and decided to come downstairs. I switched on my PC and thought I would have a nose out what's going on in Australia. Before long I was busy trading, having changed my mouse right-handed to left-handed, and actually really enjoyed it. By the time the rest of the family had woken up I had already got through a very successful trading session. Had it not been for my accident I probably never would have bothered getting up in the early hours to try the Australian racing. As it is, as long as I don't mess up this afternoon I should have a bumper day. Next week I'll try and avoid the pain in the first place and just go for the gain instead!