It’s the Chester May festival this week, and it’s a welcome addition to the card, but based on previous years, it’s nothing amazing from a trading viewpoint.
Trading conditions
Obviously, we all love some extra liquidity that the quality racing will bring, but it’s never been a meeting from which I’ve got outstanding amounts.
Don’t get the wrong impression; I’m not banging in three-figure results a race. But the odd one or two a day has been very decent, with generally better-than-average results overall.
In general, you should see improvement in traded volumes and general trading conditions. You will often see this in the summer; you alternate between good and poor races. The significance is that there will be more money and interest in better quality stuff. That usually feeds through to the markets in general.
You should focus on picking up some good results at the more important meetings to pick and choose your targets on the lower-quality stuff. This is a reasonable risk management strategy from a trading perspective.
Draw bias at Chester
The thing to note about Chester is its draw bias, one of the most significant in the UK.
When you get a strong draw bias, it will radically affect the way a market trades in play. A favourite with a favourable bias should ‘hose up’. But with an unfavourable draw, it will most likely have to work hard to turn over similar horses with a more favourable draw.
You will find that front runners do well at Chester and, if they have a favourable draw, really well. But a front-runner drawn out wide is going to have a real problem.
From a trading perspective, the draw bias can be significant pre-off as if there is a regular set of winners coming in from low draws that may spark further interest in these runners later on in the card.
The reason the draw bias exists at places like Chester is due to the tight nature of the course; it’s very ‘curvy’. Compare this to a straight course when the horse doesn’t need to be steered around the corner or run extra distance compared to somebody that is holding a favourable position on the rails.
It can make a huge difference, and if you haven’t experienced this before, it’s something that should get your attention at Chester.
Good luck at Chester!
