Seasonality in racing

01/12/2016 | By | Reply More

For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December .

The meeting is joined by Aintree (The Beecher chase) and the Welsh Grand National trial on Saturday to make a decent card. It should make up for the somewhat different racing we have had during the week!

Seasonality

At this time of the year, it’s easy to slip into some gloom. Like the weather, the markets can be cold damp and featureless and it can feel at times like it’s all changed. However is just the natural cycle in the market. See the video and graphic below for a full explanation.

Three codes

The racing market tends to shift and change over the year between the three main codes. In Spring you have new horses out for the flat turf season, in Autumn you get the same for the jumps. All weather rather racing continues all year round but declines significantly in the summer.

The impact of new horses in a market with little or no form means trends are often more pronounced. People don’t know how the horse is going to run and if money comes for it, it can really come for it. If the horse doesn’t look ‘good’ then expect a very quick re-rating as people start to doubt if this is the next great thing.

As the season progresses then the form becomes more establish and the market start to settle into a pattern again. Normality is resumed. The key to these changes in behaviour is to go on the front foot and exploit these characteristics rather than sit there and wonder what happened.

Weather

The weather can play a bit of havoc as well. Cancelled meetings, delayed start times, fog, frost, rain. Everything can get thrown at racing at this time of the year and it all has an impact. If a meeting is delayed then the market arriving in the market can be a little erratic. If it’s cancelled it can leave huge gaps between races and it’s difficult to get into a decent flow.

I am speaking a little from personal preference. But I find nothing more exciting that one race after another in regular time. After a couple of cycles of the card, I get a really good feel for the markets and can easily get into my zone and high gear. A distinct contrast from not really knowing when the next race is due off or when the money will arrive. Everybody is different, but that’s my preference.

Attitude

While the markets shift, you also need to shift your mindset. You simply can’t earn as much in the winter as you can during the summer. The first year I came across this shift, I tried to make up for it with a great deal of effort by trying to squeeze every penny out of the market, but it didn’t really work. It took until next year to work out why.

It’s better to come to terms with new trading conditions and use that to your advantage. You will notice I am quieter on weaker days and much more active around key meetings. It’s the Pareto principle, 20% of the races will produce 80% of the profit. So I’ll work hard on those. So I would recommend you pick on key meetings and days and focus some energy on it. On the quieter or disrupted days, take some time out to do some research. Play around with some ideas, try a new sport, or maybe just have the day off and do something else that is ‘well-being’ oriented.

Look at the quieter days as an opportunity to do something else, you are going to be really busy in the summer and will need the energy and structure to achieve that. Build that now while you have the opportunity, you won’t have it in the summer.

Sandown time

One major note for the Tingle Creek meeting, is that Sandown never seems to run on time. So expected some ‘Sandown time’ this weekend.

Fixture list graphic

 

Tags: , ,

Category: Horse Racing, Psychology, Trading strategies

Leave a Reply

You must be logged in to post a comment.

Hypersmash.com