Author Archive: Peter Webb
Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.
On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.
If you are running the London marathon today then, I’m jealous! But I’d like to wish you the best of luck and hope you have a really good run. Good luck to all those running or watching the London Marathon today.
I still harbour ambitions to do one more marathon, but for the moment I will remain on the side of the road encouraging support. I’ve been really good this year and gradually built up my distance again, but once …
A reflective and rather long post for the bank holiday weekend.
Don’t look back in anger
I recently looked back at some stats from the start of 2007 and compared them to 2017. I’ll often compare previous periods and markets to see what I find. I’ve always archived huge amounts of data as doing so allows me to monitor my own activity, but also see how the market changes over time.
My strike rate on racing in 2007 was a …
If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?
To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the …
I like the US Masters. This is mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays and form your strategies around that. It gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.…
Today marks the traditional return of the flat turf season. So that means the end of the footy season is nearing, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is also here. Time to really start building up your activity!
At this time of year, we move from the National Hunt season to the Flat season proper. This marks the return of flat racing over the green stuff. The Grand National is …
Formula one is back this weekend, so we will get to see how the new rule changes shape the sport this season.
The move to speed up the cars and make them more demanding is a welcome one. The drivers will enjoy it and hopefully, the fans will too. I delved into the sport in depth a few years ago and have kept all the records up to date to look at key aspects of it from a trading perspective. …
Saturday sees once of the world’s richest horse races take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.
Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull day in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup itself must be one of few where the prize …
It’s Cheltenham and that means that next week we will be treated to some quality racing and expected market turnover of £120m. I can’t wait.
In this post, I have put up plenty of statistics about what will and won’t work at Cheltenham and some comparisons to previous years. Hopefully, this will give you a few points. There is also plenty to help you get stuck into this Cheltenham if you are a Bet Angel user.
First of …
We are pleased to announce that a new beta version of Bet Angel Professional is available v1.47.0
Download it from here: – https://www.betangel.com/securedownload … _beta1.exe
Following feedback from our community this version sees:
- the introduction of Staking Methods
- the option to calculate Offsets (and Stop Losses) by Percentage instead of ticks.
- for Advanced Automation users, the ability to quickly Copy Rules between Automation Files.
Bet Angel can now vary stake based on the placement price of a …
Knockout Stages of Champions League
February brings the knockout stages of the Champions league. The group stages tend to eliminate weaker teams from the tournament. The remaining, generally higher quality teams, know they are a few matches away from a shot at the glory of the champions league title. It’s all or nothing from here!
Key football trading features within Bet Angel
If you are interested in trading football, check out Bet Angel’s unique football trading tool, ‘Soccer Mystic’. This …
I started collecting data on Betfair from the very early days and have carefully archived masses of work that I’ve done in the market.
I hoard data, even if I have no need for it, as I can go back and look at or compare previous periods. This is helpful in sporting terms to understand how the markets behaved in the past, but also I’ll often go back to apply something I recently discovered and see if results are consistent …
It seems difficult to imagine a time when it wasn’t ‘all about the in-play’ – but before Ray and Betfair there really wasn’t much concept of betting on an event after the official start time. How things have changed!
Back when exchanges started, it was purely a replication of the traditional bookmaker regime. Similar sports and similar punting styles, but exchanges brought this new concept of betting while an even was underway.
In essence, some markets were ‘in-play’ …
I’m very excited to have pre-ordered Ed Thorp’s new book. I suspect it will go on my top recommendations list.
Principles to live by
It’s important in life to find something you can live by. Some principles, desire, a path to follow. Often you look to others to find that.
A long time ago, while still at school, I visited at a friends house. There I stumbled across a Commodore pet. Learning to do some basic stuff on …
As regular users will know Bet Angel has continued to grow year after year with new features continually being added, often at the request of our users. This has inevitably resulted in an ever-expanding and extensive online user guide.
We have therefore noticed that sometimes finding the information you’re looking for may have become quite time-consuming. For this reason, we have added in a new tab ‘Quick Links’ which we hope will make the online user guide more …
There is no such thing as a perfect trade or one that is completely riskless. So the next best thing is to find the best place to be in a market adn when.
Volatility in Tennis
When you are looking to trade Tennis you are effectively selling volatility. Markets are generally priced efficiently before the start of a match, but trading is all about exploiting how a player goes from that point to closing out a match. That progression can …
January is when the Tennis season starts up again and it’s a great time to get some Tennis trading experience under your belt. With weaker markets elsewhere, the Australian Open is a great time to get going on Tennis.
If you want a quick browse of previous advice dispensed on Tennis, click here to search the blog for Tennis articles. But also view the playlist on betangel.tv. The forum is full of chatter from previous tournaments that should help …
It’s the FA Cup third round this weekend and marks just over halfway point in the season.
Has the FA Cup lost it’s ‘magic’?
If you are talking about a smaller club meeting up with a goliath, then perhaps not. But it may be that the smaller club faces a diminished version of said goliath. As they say, Money talks and it doesn’t say much in the FA Cup, apart for smaller teams.
Win a game in the second round …
Five years ago today we were treated to a day of spectacular proportions!
We are now out of the Kempton meeting and into a quieter period, but Leopardstown brings us the key targets of the day and is worthy of a look. I’m less convinced by other markets.
Today the two big races are the Lexus chase and the Christmas hurdle. The meeting overall has prize money of £145k which is more than all the other meetings combined.
It’s almost time to relax, but typically this can start and end sooner than you expect on racing markets.
The markets in the run up to Christmas day can be a bit barren. Indeed, this year, they thin out completely. We have some low-quality fodder through the week, then one Irish evening card on the 23rd and, obviously, nothing on the 24th and 25th.
It actually works well this year, as it means you can most likely take …
A very common question I’m asked on specific trading strategies is ‘what do I do’ about losses.
At first, I was pretty puzzled by this question.
You expect losses, they are part of trading. Trading is all about getting a positive expectancy. If you trade at random you will end up with random results. Because the market is generally very efficient this means that, excluding costs and commission, you will end up neither winning nor losing a massive amount …
I was back on my small account on Monday. I was recording a few videos at low stakes (I posted one last week) and also giving instruction to my daughter; she is progressing nicely.
I’m also teaching a new recruit to the team. It’s interesting to watch and learn from newbies and how they look at the market. I feel like It’s a microcosm of the entire market. I ‘feel’ this in the market every day, but experiencing first hand …
I’m conscious that when I post bigger totals people wonder how they were created? The first thing to note is that the commonality with them is that they were all created with a lot of experience and hard work! There are no shortcuts when it comes to really good quality trading. Knowledge, experience, hard work, the rollercoaster that is trading, all count. It takes a lot of practice to trade with larger stakes confidently, but you can do it!
For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December .
The meeting is joined by Aintree (The Beecher chase) and the Welsh Grand National trial on Saturday to make a decent card. It should make up for the somewhat different racing we have had during the week!
At this time of the year, it’s easy to slip into …
We are pleased to announce that a new version of Bet Angel is now available.
The upgrade is free for all trial and existing users. There is no need to re-register. To upgrade simply download the latest version, install and log in!
Download it from here: –
Key new feature – Exchange price streaming
This version adds support for Betfair’s Exchange Streaming for prices and bet updates. The feature is switched off by default but is activated by ticking …
I have fond memories of the Hennessy Gold Cup. I’ve traditionally done well at this race and it’s the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006. I know I’ve posted this summary, or something similar, before. But it’s definitely one of the highlights of my trading career so far so it’s worth a reprise for those that haven’t seen it before.
Betfair at a financial market expo
Seeing a betting company at a financial …
You will be forgiven for thinking that humanity is an outdated concept that should be replaced. But they do say, to err is human. But to completely screw up, you need a computer!
The stock market was set up to allow companies to raise investment capital from investors. A simple and effective concept that works. But modern financial markets are more like a giant casino. You can still raise funds, but the aftermarket dominates the central purpose. The …
While browsing various papers I recently came across an academic report publish in Nature, entitled the unfriendly – ‘Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor’.
Basically speaking, researchers show that ‘gut feeling’ does indeed contribute to successful trades. You can read the full report here: –
If you don’t want to wade through this, here are the key elements: –
First off, Physiologists often use the term ‘gut feeling’ as a colloquial synonym for any interoceptive sensation …
Well that was interesting.
It was clear for some time that this was going to be a huge market. Interestingly enough, the same guy I know that foresaw the financial crisis, also saw this development. I’m now his devout follower forever and would jump off a bridge if he told me it was appropriate 🙂
I started looking at this particular market back in 2004. Clinton was a democratic nominee back then as well and I’ve revisited each …
In my quest for unreachable perfection, I’ve spent a lot of time trying to understand how people think. There are several reasons for doing this.
The first is to make better decisions myself, sometimes people make decisions or say things that just don’t make any sense. You often also get stuck making a decision which you can’t seem to resolve.
Having thoroughly explored the markets, what to do, when and how (so far) in my career I’ve switched my main …
Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….
If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day at Flemington in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup then more top quality days on Thursday and the following Saturday. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the …