Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

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How to win the Premier League

How to win the Premier League

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite

11/08/2017 | By | Reply More
More Moore at Goodwood

More Moore at Goodwood

Goodwood should have been renamed Greywood at the start of the festival, such was the miserable weather that accompanied what should have been a glorious week on the Sussex downs. But it was notable for one particular day.

The weather had a huge impact on the meeting last week and produced a below par performance from me and from the markets. I’d imagine most attendees on course last week, spent most of their time hiding from the incessant rain and …

10/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Had a good week last week? Here’s why…

Had a good week last week? Here’s why…

You may have seen me post up results or information along the lines of ‘If you did this with £100 you would have managed to achieve this’.

I collect and analyse a lot of data and it’s all with the aim of identifying biases and the structural nature of a market. You would be surprised how many markets exhibit biases. Some have exhibited a structural bias for my entire trading career. I’ve casually dropped hints now and again and it’s …

03/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading ‘Good-way’

Trading ‘Good-way’

No that’s not a typo! There are two meetings that should get your attention this week.

From a trading perspective, I like multi day high-quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to any month.

Goodwood

As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very …

30/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Where Angels fear to tread

Where Angels fear to tread

One thing I’ve learnt over time is that whether it’s short term trading on Betfair or long term investing in financial markets being a contrarian seems to be a very, very effective strategy.

Why does contrarian behaviour work?

Over the years I’ve spent a lot of time looking at psychology and its impact on decision-making and it’s proved a fascinating subject. I’ve immersed myself in as much material as I can find, all in the quest of really trying to …

23/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading the Open Golf

Trading the Open Golf

The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of ‘modern’ courses which are often set in parkland or woods and carefully manicured.

How ‘links’ golf differs

Links golf is very different from traditional golf in

19/07/2017 | By | Reply More
The British Grand Prix

The British Grand Prix

After a successful week, I’m ducking out of trading seriously today to watch some sport and do a few other things.

British Grand Prix stats

The British GP is curious in that, for a non-street circuit, the average outcome is quite variable from Grid to Finish. It’s the least certain race outside the street circuits. 71% of poles end up on the podium and it’s 50/50 whether second or third on the grid will end up on the there also.

16/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Gamesmanship in Tennis

Gamesmanship in Tennis

It was interesting to see the outrage over Cillic’s very slow service during the Wimbledon semi-finals.

http://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/828680/Wimbledon-2017-Marin-Cilic-Sam-Querrey-fans-furious-semi-final

Gamesmanship

I’ve mentioned on the blog several times that elements of gamesmanship are prevalent in Tennis. They are all designed to throw the person on the other side of the net off balance and out of the zone.

You see medical timeouts, comfort breaks, disputes, rain breaks when there are just a few drops. There is no better way to put your opponent …

15/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Newmarket July Meeting

Newmarket July Meeting

The Newmarket July meeting starts today and is a decent highlight on the journey through the Month.

I’ve had mixed results over the years and is the sort of meeting where you want to do well, but you can’t push it as hard as at other meetings. If the opportunity strikes, you can usually make the most of it and get a decent result.

Last year went well, but, in my experience, it’s the sort of meeting where you can’t …

13/07/2017 | By | Reply More
An Ace is worth more than a point

An Ace is worth more than a point

When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true. With Murray about to line up against a big server at Wimbledon so let’s look at the perfect serve.

Wimbledon

Wimbledon is the home of mighty servers, with alternate big servers booming the ball past their opponent. But what effect does it have? Some, it appears.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve been …

12/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Why I never turn my phone off, ever….

Why I never turn my phone off, ever….

Most people know the significance of this date, but for a small group of traders, this date has even more significance.

Our story of this day

It started the same as any other day. I was scheduled to do a talk in central London on guess what, trading on betting exchanges. I took the train in central London, as did my delegates and after switching from overground to underground I remember clearly looking at the clock on the exit at

07/07/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
Tennis – Small margins, large number of points

Tennis – Small margins, large number of points

If you have been active on Wimbledon you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.

Odd odds

Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds-on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this, their odds don’t seem to come in that much. If you look at top player against a lower player, the outsider can be one set all and leading 4-1. But …

07/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream

Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream

Here is how Bet Angel can help you this Wimbledon, whether you trade Tennis or not.

It’s packed full of features that are a must-have for any Tennis trader, established or aspiring.

I don’t trade Tennis

That’s not a problem, but maybe you should look at this popular in-play sport, especially during Wimbledon?

Bet Angel has free Tennis bots and can operate in practice mode which means there is no risk to your money. The advanced automation can execute ‘set …

02/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Why Saturday is like a mini Ascot for me

Why Saturday is like a mini Ascot for me

When I first started sports trading, I treated it like a 9-5 job.

I did all the usual things you would in a normal job and returned to my out of work activities after the day was over. Fairly quickly I realised that this wasn’t going to work and was a terrible error of judgement. All the best opportunities seemed to occur outside of ‘normal’ hours and therefore I had to shift my working patterns. 

Shifting my workload

At first,

01/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Ascot 2017 post meeting summary

Ascot 2017 post meeting summary

I’ve been meaning to summarise Ascot. It’s always worth doing as you can refer back to it next year for comparison, so here goes: –

Turnover

Betfair ended up matching, at post time, around £70.5m which was up on last year by about 23%. Last year was down quite a bit so this returns the matched bet turnover to levels that would be deemed ‘normal’.

In the run up to Ascot, I reckoned it would trade around £65m so that’s …

30/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading Royal Ascot

Trading Royal Ascot

And so here we are another year, another Ascot. That came around quickly didn’t it?

For me, it’s another declined invitation to attend the event. While that pains me somewhat, for the moment, I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year. You wouldn’t see a professional footballer work hard all season, only to decline the chance to play in the Champions League final. So missing any major meeting is

19/06/2017 | By | Reply More
US PGA Golf

US PGA Golf

Before we talk specifically about trading the US Open, why not check out our Golf trading videos at https://www.betangel.tv

I enjoy my annual foray into the US Open Golf because it reminds me of my very first activity on betting exchanges way back in June 2000. Aside from a small flutter on some financial markets, it was the Golf that launched my betting exchange career. Back then Tiger Woods was being offered at 4.00 for the championship and Colin Montgomerie …

14/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Two card Tuedays

Two card Tuedays

We have reached the time of year when Monday and Tuesday racing drops to two cards in the afternoon.

The impact of just two race meetings

It’s an important time of year, as this changes the characteristic of these cards to the negative. But also it allows you to do a few other things and skip these cards if needed. Racing tends to be lower quality on a Monday and Tuesday and that combined with the 15-minute gaps in-between the …

13/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Going Grey

Going Grey

Back in 2010, I commented during some bleak winters months, I had a dabble at Greyhound markets.

Since then I hadn’t done much work on Greyhounds as the return per day didn’t justify the effort. However, since that last post, two things may me revisit them.

The first is some renewed interest in the forum, and the second is the turnover figures I saw when I reviewed the markets at the start of the year. Bet Angel has …

11/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Punting on Politics – General election turnout

Punting on Politics – General election turnout

I did a little piece on the General election recently for Betfair. Underlying it was some work I’d looked at recently on turnout for elections.

Apathy

When the election was called the markets shifted significantly anticipating a Conservative landslide. I immediately wondered if there would be a correlation between certainty and turnout. But first I had to work out what a ‘normal’ turnout would look like.

I looked back at elections since the second world and munched through some …

06/06/2017 | By | Reply More
The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby when the summer racing really starts to step up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.

If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …

02/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Are Arsenal getting better or worse?

Are Arsenal getting better or worse?

Arsenal to finish fourth and win the FA Cup? Maybe not this year then, so it’s Wenger out?

Financial fair play?

I look at many different aspects of football aside from the general market pricing. Being able to read a financial report, a club’s financials can be quite useful for predicting long-term performance. Clubs that carry a lot of debt expense will see their ability to finance the purchase of new players squeezed. Clubs that are flush with finance can …

27/05/2017 | By | Reply More
Little and often soon adds up

Little and often soon adds up

This is a phrase I’ll often quote when advising people on how to trade.

The real objective when trading

It’s really nice to bang in some massive results now and again, but generally, that’s not what trading is about. Most of the time I’m in a market I’m just looking for an opportunity. Something I recognise as having a decent chance of a payoff, with as little downside as possible. Sometimes you just can’t see them and sometimes they are …

30/04/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
The London Marathon – When I became a QPR fan

The London Marathon – When I became a QPR fan

If you are running the London marathon today then, I’m jealous! But I’d like to wish you the best of luck and hope you have a really good run. Good luck to all those running or watching the London Marathon today.

I still harbour ambitions to do one more marathon, but for the moment I will remain on the side of the road encouraging support. I’ve been really good this year and gradually built up my distance again, but once …

23/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Ten years apart

Ten years apart

A reflective and rather long post for the bank holiday weekend.

Don’t look back in anger

I recently looked back at some stats from the start of 2007 and compared them to 2017. I’ll often compare previous periods and markets to see what I find. I’ve always archived huge amounts of data as doing so allows me to monitor my own activity, but also see how the market changes over time.

My strike rate on racing in 2007 was a …

15/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Aintree, the Grand National and fallers

Aintree, the Grand National and fallers

If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?

Source data

To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the

07/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading the US Masters

Trading the US Masters

I like the US Masters. This is mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays and form your strategies around that. It gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.

04/04/2017 | By | Reply More
The Flat is back

The Flat is back

Today marks the traditional return of the flat turf season. So that means the end of the footy season is nearing, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is also here. Time to really start building up your activity!

Transition

At this time of year, we move from the National Hunt season to the Flat season proper. This marks the return of flat racing over the green stuff. The Grand National is …

01/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Street traders

Street traders

Formula one is back this weekend, so we will get to see how the new rule changes shape the sport this season.

The move to speed up the cars and make them more demanding is a welcome one. The drivers will enjoy it and hopefully, the fans will too. I delved into the sport in depth a few years ago and have kept all the records up to date to look at key aspects of it from a trading perspective. …

25/03/2017 | By | Reply More
A world cup that is suited to the desert

A world cup that is suited to the desert

Saturday sees once of the world’s richest horse races take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.

Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull day in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup itself must be one of few where the prize

24/03/2017 | By | Reply More
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