Author Archive: Peter Webb

Loved sports and statistics all my life and eventually found a way to make a living from it.

On this blog I chat about my experiance in the market and my opinions.

rss feed Facebook Twitter YouTube

Seasonality in racing

Seasonality in racing

For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December .

The meeting is joined by Aintree (The Beecher chase) and the Welsh Grand National trial on Saturday to make a decent card. It should make up for the somewhat different racing we have had during the week!


At this time of the year, it’s easy to slip into …

01/12/2016 | By | Reply More
Bet Angel – Now ten times faster!

Bet Angel – Now ten times faster!

We are pleased to announce that a new version of Bet Angel is now available.

The upgrade is free for all trial and existing users. There is no need to re-register. To upgrade simply download the latest version, install and log in!

Download it from here: –

Key new feature – Exchange price streaming

This version adds support for Betfair’s Exchange Streaming for prices and bet updates. The feature is switched off by default but is activated by ticking …

26/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races

Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races

I have fond memories of the Hennessy Gold Cup. I’ve traditionally done well at this race and it’s the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006. I know I’ve posted this summary, or something similar, before. But it’s definitely one of the highlights of my trading career so far so it’s worth a reprise for those that haven’t seen it before.

Betfair at a financial market expo

Seeing a betting company at a financial

25/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Finding value in malevolent markets

Finding value in malevolent markets

You will be forgiven for thinking that humanity is an outdated concept that should be replaced.  But they do say, to err is human. But to completely screw up, you need a computer!

Flash crashes

The stock market was set up to allow companies to raise investment capital from investors. A simple and effective concept that works. But modern financial markets are more like a giant casino. You can still raise funds, but the aftermarket dominates the central purpose. The …

20/11/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
‘Gut feelings’ help make successful traders

‘Gut feelings’ help make successful traders

While browsing various papers I recently came across an academic report publish in Nature, entitled the unfriendly – ‘Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor’.

Basically speaking, researchers show that ‘gut feeling’ does indeed contribute to successful trades. You can read the full report here: –

If you don’t want to wade through this, here are the key elements: –

First off, Physiologists often use the term ‘gut feeling’ as a colloquial synonym for any interoceptive sensation …

13/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Difficult to Trump that

Difficult to Trump that

Well that was interesting.

It was clear for some time that this was going to be a huge market. Interestingly enough, the same guy I know that foresaw the financial crisis, also saw this development. I’m now his devout follower forever and would jump off a bridge if he told me it was appropriate 🙂


Previous markets

I started looking at this particular market back in 2004. Clinton was a democratic nominee back then as well and I’ve revisited each …

10/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Two books that will change the way you think

Two books that will change the way you think

In my quest for unreachable perfection, I’ve spent a lot of time trying to understand how people think. There are several reasons for doing this.

The first is to make better decisions myself, sometimes people make decisions or say things that just don’t make any sense.  You often also get stuck making a decision which you can’t seem to resolve.

Having thoroughly explored the markets, what to do, when and how (so far) in my career I’ve switched my main …

04/11/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
Derby Day!

Derby Day!

Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….

If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day at Flemington in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup then more top quality days on Thursday and the following Saturday. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the …

28/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Being lucky…

Being lucky…

I’m often told that I’m lucky. You are lucky that you can do this, you are lucky that you have that, it’s lucky that this happened and so on.

But the fact is that underlying all elements of luck are two important characteristics, belief and perseverance.


Some people are given a good start in life, some are not. I wasn’t given the best start in life and I found myself as a teenager a bit lost and confused!

One …

22/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Luck and Skill in sport

Luck and Skill in sport

Sport is generally about two different players or team competing with each other. It’s unlikely they will be equally matched in every respect, though not impossible. But typically a differential exists between the two. However, luck can be a key component in a sport as well.

Luck in football

The number of goals in football is low, an average of 2.60 goals a game. Watch this video to learn more about that.Over the course

Over the course of a …

16/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Luck and Skill in trading…

Luck and Skill in trading…

Luck or skill?

On Monday I hosted a learn to trade course with the intention of giving people a decent start in their sports trading journey.


People are always keen to see you do something when you’re hosting a course. This particular course wasn’t set-up as a full-blooded trading session. But I was happy to oblige, as there is no better way of understanding the concept if you see it in action.

Of course, you can’t guarantee that you …

14/10/2016 | By | Reply More
A classic psychological flaw

A classic psychological flaw

Here is something that will help you understand the way people act and what you can’t do about it! But how you can benefit from it.

I made a comment on Twitter a little while ago saying something along the lines of “if I ever think going to lose my edge all I need to do is look at social media and I know that’s not going to happen”

Entrenched views

What I was commenting on was the proliferation of …

08/10/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

It’s that time of year that I turn my attention to a few overseas Racing markets. On Friday, I posted up a bit of evening racing at Moonee Valley in Australia and returned today to have a look at some of the other group racing. It’s with a view to gearing up to the Melbourne Cup Carnival.

Markets never stay exactly the same, so I’m always on the look out for changes. With the recent change in the Aussie API, …

01/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading the Ryder Cup

Trading the Ryder Cup

Once every two years, the sporting world turns its attention to what is turning into a classic sporting Rivalry, the Ryder Cup.

Many years ago it didn’t have anything like the profile it does now. Post war it was a chance of US golfers to show how much better they were than UK players. Then the rules changed to make their opponents UK and Ireland, but that was still dominated by the US. Then in 1985 when it became the …

30/09/2016 | By | Reply More
The greatest show on earth?

The greatest show on earth?

Tonight in the US we have the first presidential debate and what an interesting one it looks like it will be!

Take your side

In the red corner we have the eccentric, surely can’t be elected president, TV personality Donald Trump. And in the blue corner we have the political dynasty that are the Clintons.

Political markets rise in prominence

Political markets on Betfair are becoming very big business and this prominence within the marketplace reached a peak during the …

26/09/2016 | By | Reply More
Manual or automated?

Manual or automated?

It was with interest this week that somebody pointed me to a blog post debating, or should I say justifying a stance on automated trading vs manual trading. Here is my angle on it: –

Financial markets

If you look to financial markets you have many aspects to it. High-frequency traders, slamming in positions in and out of the market to scrape a few cents per trade in as large a block as they can get through. A very specialist …

24/09/2016 | By | Reply More
Calamity Cambridgeshire

Calamity Cambridgeshire

I’ve picked off a few good results from the Cambridgeshire in the past and hope to this weekend. But I will remember this race forever for a disaster I had in 2011. Perhaps appropriate given the Betfair outage earlier this week, which I doubt that will be repeated. But is right at the forefront of my mind as I approach the big race tomorrow.

Outage outrage

Back in 2011 as we approached the key race of the day people started

23/09/2016 | By | Reply More
Quick Sand – Racing at Laytown

Quick Sand – Racing at Laytown

The races

Since 1868 Laytown has hosted the annual race meeting like no other. With no formal race course to host the equine competitors, these horses are raced on the beach. Laytown catches the attention of wide range of racing and non-racing goers each year.

Quite a few years ago I was captivated by the sight of horses running on the beach. It just seemed a bit different and interesting. So I set my sights on visiting this very unique

13/09/2016 | By | Reply More
September Salisbury and it’s importance

September Salisbury and it’s importance

Today we had a meeting at Salisbury, that’s not unusual in the summer. But the last meeting has some significance for me.

The reason that race is important to me is that way back in 2003 Betfair published information on a specific race. The information published, which was available in the public domain, was the feature race at Salisbury on that particular day.

The reason for the importance

The reason the race was so important was that Betfair went full …

09/09/2016 | By | Reply More
US Open Tennis

US Open Tennis

How I learnt to trade Tennis

When I first started to trade Tennis, I needed a few things to be in place. One of those was an understanding of how odds move in Tennis match.

The reasoning was that if I knew that, I could pitch my opening and closing trades roughly where I wanted, where the market would move to. I could also start searching for ‘precursors’ to that key point in the match.

Also, with so many matches

31/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Manic Monday

Manic Monday

It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings  a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day. Then as we drift into the late afternoon, the US Open tennis gets underway. Not exactly a relaxing Bank Holiday!

Today there will be 483 runners over 51 races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, …

29/08/2016 | By | Reply More


I made a post on social media this week about an article that appeared in the Financial Times. I didn’t realise at the time of posting, that in the background there was a mention of a sizeable position then went through the market at Royal Ascot.

I only realised this, when people started questioning it shortly after the post. Asking how it was possible put £125k through a market?

Ordinary or extraordinary?

This wasn’t an ordinary market, though, this was …

28/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Ebor or Ebore?

Ebor or Ebore?

Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.

The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently, though.


17/08/2016 | By | 2 Replies More
Why Monday’s evenings are great markets

Why Monday’s evenings are great markets

Something snatched my curiosity many years ago about trading the evening racing during the summer.


It always seemed pretty anomalous to me, but I would always feel that I would do well on a Monday evening, But Tuesdays would often be terrible. The rest of the week would vary depending upon the type of races and courses where the evening racing was being held.

Closer examination showed that Windsor was producing consistently above average results. So I came up …

16/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Training course – Learn to trade on Betfair

Training course – Learn to trade on Betfair


If you are looking at learning to trade, here is a way to get a really good start onto the first step of the trading ladder.

If you are coming from a gambling background, from matched betting or you are just intrigued by trading on sports. We can give you improved confidence in your initial trading journey by teaching you how to trade on Betfair. We’ve created a course that will do that perfectly for you.

You will get …

13/08/2016 | By | Reply More
How to win the Premier League

How to win the Premier League

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite

12/08/2016 | By | Reply More
The footy season – My general approach

The footy season – My general approach

Now the football has started again, here is an insight into how I approach the whole season.


During off season I am most active on research and new information for the next season. I gather a huge amount of data during the season and during the off-season I analyse it to take ideas forward to the next season. Same story this year.

I started analysing football matches in the 80’s, so I tend to focus on very specific problems …

11/08/2016 | By | Reply More
False markets

False markets

How would you like some free money? A couple of clicks and you have instant profit on your screen (but maybe not your account!)

Book percentages

In an outright market than can only be one winner. That is why, if you add up all the odds and percentages, the market will settle on a book value of 100%. If you can lay above 100% then effectively your payout is only 100% but your profit will be anything above that.

If …

06/08/2016 | By | Reply More
New Version of Bet Angel Professional

New Version of Bet Angel Professional

Always looking to take your trading further forward, we are pleased to announce a new version of Bet Angel.

You can download it from here: –

The new version of Bet Angel is available for free to any existing users or trialists.

Key new features in this version

The main feature of this version is the introduction of Automation Signals giving automation a huge amount of new flexibility and control. It opens the door to many new possibilities. (For …

03/08/2016 | By | Reply More


The ‘fourth major’ starts today in the US and should provide some opportunities. That said, I temper my enthusiasm as the Golf season wears on as history has shown that I do worse at each major as the year progresses. I don’t know exactly why that is, but I suspect as form lines get stronger, opportunities weaken.

The US PGA at first tee last year turned over £5m.

Some of the stats I’ve used here have come from the excellent

28/07/2016 | By | Reply More