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Seasonality in Horse Racing

Seasonality in Horse Racing

Still, plenty of racing to look forward to and the champions meeting still to come followed by the restart of Cheltenham, but what happens as we move into the winter?

There are plenty of highlights around at this time and more as we head into the full on jumps season. For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December. …

05/10/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
St Leger meeting

St Leger meeting

The oldest classic horse race in the world is almost upon us again and while it marks the closing of the flat turf season, tradition dictates that it also marks an upturn in financial markets if folklore is to be believed. “Sell in May and go away, don’t come back till St Leger day”

Come back on St Leger day

There is a general ‘theory’ that during the summer stocks languish and only when everybody is back to their desk

13/09/2017 | By | Reply More
September Salisbury and it’s importance

September Salisbury and it’s importance

Today we have a meeting at Salisbury, that’s not unusual at this time of year. But this meeting has some significance for all traders.

Why it’s an important race

Way back in 2003 Betfair published information on a specific race. Betfair went full disclosure on the race. It listed all the market participants what they did, how much they did, how many accounts were active overall and similar information.

On seeing this publication I just realised that it gave me …

07/09/2017 | By | 2 Replies More
Marmite Monday

Marmite Monday

It’s that day of the year that you either love or hate. The August bank holiday in the UK brings a whole bunch of racing, all on the same day.

There will be lots of meetings on Monday and about a billion races. This may seem like heaven for some, but it’s a nightmare for others. Quite a few races will attract little liquidity, a lot isn’t of quality and many races will clash meaning that you can’t do much

27/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Ebor or Ebore?

Ebor or Ebore?

Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.

The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.

Traditionally, …

22/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading ‘Good-way’

Trading ‘Good-way’

No that’s not a typo! There are two meetings that should get your attention this week.

From a trading perspective, I like multi day high-quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to any month.

Goodwood

As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very …

30/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Behind the scenes at the home of British horse racing

Behind the scenes at the home of British horse racing

A few weeks ago I was fortunate to be invited to Newmarket (the birthplace and spiritual home of British horseracing) by a fellow Bet Angel forum member who is an ex-jockey that rode for Sir Mark Prescott for many years.

Newmarket itself is steeped in history and is built around horse racing with approx. 3000 horses stabled across 2500 acres. It is home to most of the UK’s top trainers. The best way to describe it would be to say …

14/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Newmarket July Meeting

Newmarket July Meeting

The Newmarket July meeting starts today and is a decent highlight on the journey through the Month.

I’ve had mixed results over the years and is the sort of meeting where you want to do well, but you can’t push it as hard as at other meetings. If the opportunity strikes, you can usually make the most of it and get a decent result.

Last year went well, but, in my experience, it’s the sort of meeting where you can’t …

13/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Two card Tuedays

Two card Tuedays

We have reached the time of year when Monday and Tuesday racing drops to two cards in the afternoon.

The impact of just two race meetings

It’s an important time of year, as this changes the characteristic of these cards to the negative. But also it allows you to do a few other things and skip these cards if needed. Racing tends to be lower quality on a Monday and Tuesday and that combined with the 15-minute gaps in-between the …

13/06/2017 | By | Reply More
The Flat is back

The Flat is back

Today marks the traditional return of the flat turf season. So that means the end of the footy season is nearing, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is also here. Time to really start building up your activity!

Transition

At this time of year, we move from the National Hunt season to the Flat season proper. This marks the return of flat racing over the green stuff. The Grand National is …

01/04/2017 | By | Reply More
A world cup that is suited to the desert

A world cup that is suited to the desert

Saturday sees once of the world’s richest horse races take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.

Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull day in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup itself must be one of few where the prize

24/03/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading Cheltenham

Trading Cheltenham

It’s Cheltenham and that means that next week we will be treated to some quality racing and expected market turnover of £120m. I can’t wait.

In this post, I have put up plenty of statistics about what will and won’t work at Cheltenham and some comparisons to previous years. Hopefully, this will give you a few points. There is also plenty to help you get stuck into this Cheltenham if you are a Bet Angel user.

Latest releases

First of

11/03/2017 | By | Reply More
There is Light at the End of the Tunnel!

There is Light at the End of the Tunnel!

We are now in the middle of February which is historically the poorest and hardest trading month of the year on the pre-race horse racing markets, typically there will only be around £450m traded this month which is around 40% less than the amounts expected as we hit peak season where the monthly volume will of increased to around £750m.

How does this effect thing from a trading perspective?

When trading any market liquidity is key none more so than …

13/02/2017 | By | Reply More
How to win £45m in a few minutes

How to win £45m in a few minutes

Five years ago today we were treated to a day of spectacular proportions!

Leopardstown

We are now out of the Kempton meeting and into a quieter period, but Leopardstown brings us the key targets of the day and is worthy of a look. I’m less convinced by other markets.

Today the two big races are the Lexus chase and the Christmas hurdle. The meeting overall has prize money of £145k which is more than all the other meetings combined.

Leopardstown

28/12/2016 | By | Reply More
Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races

Hennessy Gold Cup – One of my favourite races

I have fond memories of the Hennessy Gold Cup. I’ve traditionally done well at this race and it’s the race I traded live at the IX Investor show for Betfair in 2006. I know I’ve posted this summary, or something similar, before. But it’s definitely one of the highlights of my trading career so far so it’s worth a reprise for those that haven’t seen it before.

Betfair at a financial market expo

Seeing a betting company at a financial

25/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Finding value in malevolent markets

Finding value in malevolent markets

You will be forgiven for thinking that humanity is an outdated concept that should be replaced.  But they do say, to err is human. But to completely screw up, you need a computer!

Flash crashes

The stock market was set up to allow companies to raise investment capital from investors. A simple and effective concept that works. But modern financial markets are more like a giant casino. You can still raise funds, but the aftermarket dominates the central purpose. The …

20/11/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
Loadsamoney

Loadsamoney

I made a post on social media this week about an article that appeared in the Financial Times. I didn’t realise at the time of posting, that in the background there was a mention of a sizeable position then went through the market at Royal Ascot.

I only realised this, when people started questioning it shortly after the post. Asking how it was possible put £125k through a market?

Ordinary or extraordinary?

This wasn’t an ordinary market, though, this was …

28/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Ebor or Ebore?

Ebor or Ebore?

Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.

The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.

Traditionally, …

17/08/2016 | By | 2 Replies More
Why Monday’s evenings are great markets

Why Monday’s evenings are great markets

Something snatched my curiosity many years ago about trading the evening racing during the summer.

Anomaly

It always seemed pretty anomalous to me, but I would always feel that I would do well on a Monday evening, But Tuesdays would often be terrible. The rest of the week would vary depending upon the type of races and courses where the evening racing was being held.

Closer examination showed that Windsor was producing consistently above average results. So I came up …

16/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading Royal Ascot

Trading Royal Ascot

And so here we are another year, another Ascot.

Ascot is obviously a big deal and, generally, I target it to be at least the second biggest week of the year. I’ll look to do more in a week than I can normally do in a month, so it’s a significant meeting. Wall to wall, quality racing, from Tuesday till Saturday. You also get the added bonus of lots of drunk people places bets on horses because they like the

13/06/2016 | By | Reply More
York Dante Meeting

York Dante Meeting

After a successful Chester meeting we roll onto York for the Dante meeting this week.

The York card looks good with plenty of group racing, but the other stuff on the card today looks a little ‘testing’. For a direct comparison look at the prize money. Kempton has a grand total of £18.4k, York £191.5k. I’ll be cautious and use small stakes at the smaller meetings as a result.

As we move through the early part of the flat turf

11/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Chester May Festival

Chester May Festival

Chester May festival starts today and it’s a welcome addition to the card, but based upon previous years it’s nothing amazing from a trading viewpoint.

Obviously we all love some extra liquidity that the quality racing will bring, but it’s never been a meeting that I’ve got really good amounts from. By that I mean I’m not banging in three figure results a race. Just the odd one or two a day. The thing to note about Chester is its

04/05/2016 | By | Reply More
Manic Monday

Manic Monday

It’s one of a handful of manic trading sessions you see during the year today.

There are 620 runners on the card today and 54 races. Sounds like heaven, but it can be hell. The markets are just often not strong enough to do anything with. You often get a lot of donkeys out and therefore you end up with some competitive handicaps at the lower end of the scale, but little money and little time to trade them.

If …

02/05/2016 | By | Reply More
How evening racing is different

How evening racing is different

We have now started the evening racing in earnest and it won’t stop till the end of August. So you have four months to make hay while the sun shines, not forgetting we are in the England, so it won’t shine much.

However, there are at least four different states that you see in racing during this period.

(1) Afternoon racing

This tends to me higher quality than the evening racing and will therefore trade differently.

(2) Evening racing

There

20/04/2016 | By | Reply More
A day at the races

A day at the races

After many years sat behind the screen. I’ve been making a conscious effort recently, to actually get out and enjoy some of the hard earned. But also I’ve been keen to experience first hand some of the sporting venues I’ve traded.

This was another year when I declined an invite to the Cheltenham Festival, but I made up for it yesterday by attending the racing there. Judging by the weather I picked the right day! I was quite keen to

14/04/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
Craven meeting

Craven meeting

We have just started the Craven meeting at Newmarket. With deference to the TV presenter, it’s not named after him but instead an early supporter of Racing at Newmarket. Yesterday we had the Nell Gwyn an interesting character.

How the Craven trades

I prefer to know whether I’m in a good market or a poor one. But the Craven meeting at Newmarket often sits right in-between that. I know there’s quality there, but in terms of liquidity it often

13/04/2016 | By | Reply More
When it’s good to see Red

When it’s good to see Red

European clay court Tennis, Racing at Newmarket, the Grand National behind us; spring is definitely here!

We are now on the cusp of a lot of major sporting action. The Monte Carlo Masters Tennis is a signal to start dusting down things for the French Open. The European clay court season is upon us and it presents us with some decent opportunities. In past years the clay season has all been about the dominance of Rafael Nadal. But times are

12/04/2016 | By | Reply More
Aintree Grand National and fallers

Aintree Grand National and fallers

If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?

Source data

To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the

09/04/2016 | By | Reply More
The Flat is back

The Flat is back

Today marks the traditional return of the flat turf season. So that means the end of the footy season is near, the Grand National is right upon us and the first Golf Major of the year is also here. Time to really start building up your activity!

The Lincoln has been going since 1859 and this complex handicap is traditional launcher for flat turf racing. There have been some two-year-olds out already, so the flat season has started but this …

02/04/2016 | By | Reply More
Made in Meydan

Made in Meydan

Today sees the worlds richest horse race take place at Meydan, the Dubai world cup.

Over the years I’ve moved from dabbling in the Meydan markets to doing them seriously. They often make for a useful addition on a dull winters day in the UK. Therefore I’d recommend a dabble in these markets if the volume is holding up and there is no clashing with other races. The world cup stands out on it’s own as a race later in

26/03/2016 | By | Reply More
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