RSSCategory: Trading strategies

Little and often soon adds up

Little and often soon adds up

This is a phrase I’ll often quote when advising people on how to trade.

The real objective when trading

It’s really nice to bang in some massive results now and again, but generally, that’s not what trading is about. Most of the time I’m in a market I’m just looking for an opportunity. Something I recognise as having a decent chance of a payoff, with as little downside as possible. Sometimes you just can’t see them and sometimes they are …

30/04/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
Aintree, the Grand National and fallers

Aintree, the Grand National and fallers

If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?

Source data

To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the

07/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading the US Masters

Trading the US Masters

I like the US Masters. This is mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays and form your strategies around that. It gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.

04/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Street traders

Street traders

Formula one is back this weekend, so we will get to see how the new rule changes shape the sport this season.

The move to speed up the cars and make them more demanding is a welcome one. The drivers will enjoy it and hopefully, the fans will too. I delved into the sport in depth a few years ago and have kept all the records up to date to look at key aspects of it from a trading perspective. …

25/03/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading Cheltenham

Trading Cheltenham

It’s Cheltenham and that means that next week we will be treated to some quality racing and expected market turnover of £120m. I can’t wait.

In this post, I have put up plenty of statistics about what will and won’t work at Cheltenham and some comparisons to previous years. Hopefully, this will give you a few points. There is also plenty to help you get stuck into this Cheltenham if you are a Bet Angel user.

Latest releases

First of

11/03/2017 | By | Reply More
Knock out stages in European football

Knock out stages in European football

Knockout Stages of Champions League

February brings the knockout stages of the Champions league. The group stages tend to eliminate weaker teams from the tournament. The remaining, generally higher quality teams, know they are a few matches away from a shot at the glory of the champions league title. It’s all or nothing from here!

Key football trading features within Bet Angel

If you are interested in trading football, check out Bet Angel’s unique football trading tool, ‘Soccer Mystic’. This …

21/02/2017 | By | Reply More
The Betfair exchange in numbers

The Betfair exchange in numbers

I started collecting data on Betfair from the very early days and have carefully archived masses of work that I’ve done in the market.

I hoard data, even if I have no need for it, as I can go back and look at or compare previous periods. This is helpful in sporting terms to understand how the markets behaved in the past, but also I’ll often go back to apply something I recently discovered and see if results are consistent …

05/02/2017 | By | Reply More
The growth and growth of inplay

The growth and growth of inplay

It seems difficult to imagine a time when it wasn’t ‘all about the in-play’ – but before Ray and Betfair there really wasn’t much concept of betting on an event after the official start time. How things have changed!

The start

Back when exchanges started, it was purely a replication of the traditional bookmaker regime. Similar sports and similar punting styles, but exchanges brought this new concept of betting while an even was underway.

In essence, some markets were ‘in-play’ …

04/02/2017 | By | Reply More
Everybody needs a role model

Everybody needs a role model

I’m very excited to have pre-ordered Ed Thorp’s new book. I suspect it will go on my top recommendations list.

Principles to live by

It’s important in life to find something you can live by. Some principles, desire, a path to follow. Often you look to others to find that.

A long time ago, while still at school, I visited at a friends house. There I stumbled across a Commodore pet. Learning to do some basic stuff on …

29/01/2017 | By | Reply More
What are the best Tennis markets to trade?

What are the best Tennis markets to trade?

There is no such thing as a perfect trade or one that is completely riskless. So the next best thing is to find the best place to be in a market adn when.

Volatility in Tennis

When you are looking to trade Tennis you are effectively selling volatility. Markets are generally priced efficiently before the start of a match, but trading is all about exploiting how a player goes from that point to closing out a match. That progression can …

21/01/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading Tennis at the Australian Open

Trading Tennis at the Australian Open

January is when the Tennis season starts up again and it’s a great time to get some Tennis trading experience under your belt. With weaker markets elsewhere, the Australian Open is a great time to get going on Tennis.

If you want a quick browse of previous advice dispensed on Tennis, click here to search the blog for Tennis articles. But also view the playlist on betangel.tv. The forum is full of chatter from previous tournaments that should help …

14/01/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading the FA Cup

Trading the FA Cup

It’s the FA Cup third round this weekend and marks just over halfway point in the season.

Has the FA Cup lost it’s ‘magic’?

If you are talking about a smaller club meeting up with a goliath, then perhaps not. But it may be that the smaller club faces a diminished version of said goliath. As they say, Money talks and it doesn’t say much in the FA Cup, apart for smaller teams.

Win a game in the second round …

06/01/2017 | By | Reply More
Loss recovery systems

Loss recovery systems

A very common question I’m asked on specific trading strategies is ‘what do I do’ about losses.

Puzzlement

At first, I was pretty puzzled by this question.

You expect losses, they are part of trading. Trading is all about getting a positive expectancy. If you trade at random you will end up with random results. Because the market is generally very efficient this means that, excluding costs and commission, you will end up neither winning nor losing a massive amount …

17/12/2016 | By | Reply More
Starting out as a sports trader – Scaling up

Starting out as a sports trader – Scaling up

I was back on my small account on Monday. I was recording a few videos at low stakes (I posted one last week) and also giving instruction to my daughter; she is progressing nicely.

I’m also teaching a new recruit to the team. It’s interesting to watch and learn from newbies and how they look at the market. I feel like It’s a microcosm of the entire market. I ‘feel’ this in the market every day, but experiencing first hand …

14/12/2016 | By | 4 Replies More
Starting out as a sports trader

Starting out as a sports trader

I’m conscious that when I post bigger totals people wonder how they were created? The first thing to note is that the commonality with them is that they were all created with a lot of experience and hard work! There are no shortcuts when it comes to really good quality trading. Knowledge, experience, hard work, the rollercoaster that is trading, all count. It takes a lot of practice to trade with larger stakes confidently, but you can do it!

Bigger

03/12/2016 | By | Reply More
Seasonality in racing

Seasonality in racing

For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December .

The meeting is joined by Aintree (The Beecher chase) and the Welsh Grand National trial on Saturday to make a decent card. It should make up for the somewhat different racing we have had during the week!

Seasonality

At this time of the year, it’s easy to slip into …

01/12/2016 | By | Reply More
Finding value in malevolent markets

Finding value in malevolent markets

You will be forgiven for thinking that humanity is an outdated concept that should be replaced.  But they do say, to err is human. But to completely screw up, you need a computer!

Flash crashes

The stock market was set up to allow companies to raise investment capital from investors. A simple and effective concept that works. But modern financial markets are more like a giant casino. You can still raise funds, but the aftermarket dominates the central purpose. The …

20/11/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
‘Gut feelings’ help make successful traders

‘Gut feelings’ help make successful traders

While browsing various papers I recently came across an academic report publish in Nature, entitled the unfriendly – ‘Interoceptive Ability Predicts Survival on a London Trading Floor’.

Basically speaking, researchers show that ‘gut feeling’ does indeed contribute to successful trades. You can read the full report here: –

http://www.nature.com/articles/srep3298

If you don’t want to wade through this, here are the key elements: –

First off, Physiologists often use the term ‘gut feeling’ as a colloquial synonym for any interoceptive sensation …

13/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Derby Day!

Derby Day!

Isn’t the Derby in June? Yes and no….

If you are in Australia, early tomorrow morning (UK Time) is Derby Day at Flemington in Victoria. This kicks off the Melbourne Cup carnival and a week of top class Australian action. On Tuesday we have the race that stops a nation, the Melbourne Cup then more top quality days on Thursday and the following Saturday. It’s a busy period full stop on the horse racing front, as we also have the …

28/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Being lucky…

Being lucky…

I’m often told that I’m lucky. You are lucky that you can do this, you are lucky that you have that, it’s lucky that this happened and so on.

But the fact is that underlying all elements of luck are two important characteristics, belief and perseverance.

Belief

Some people are given a good start in life, some are not. I wasn’t given the best start in life and I found myself as a teenager a bit lost and confused!

One …

22/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Luck and Skill in sport

Luck and Skill in sport

Sport is generally about two different players or team competing with each other. It’s unlikely they will be equally matched in every respect, though not impossible. But typically a differential exists between the two. However, luck can be a key component in a sport as well.

Luck in football

The number of goals in football is low, an average of 2.60 goals a game. Watch this video to learn more about that.Over the course

Over the course of a …

16/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Luck and Skill in trading…

Luck and Skill in trading…

Luck or skill?

On Monday I hosted a learn to trade course with the intention of giving people a decent start in their sports trading journey.

Distractions

People are always keen to see you do something when you’re hosting a course. This particular course wasn’t set-up as a full-blooded trading session. But I was happy to oblige, as there is no better way of understanding the concept if you see it in action.

Of course, you can’t guarantee that you …

14/10/2016 | By | Reply More
A classic psychological flaw

A classic psychological flaw

Here is something that will help you understand the way people act and what you can’t do about it! But how you can benefit from it.

I made a comment on Twitter a little while ago saying something along the lines of “if I ever think going to lose my edge all I need to do is look at social media and I know that’s not going to happen”

Entrenched views

What I was commenting on was the proliferation of …

08/10/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

Traders of the Prix De L’Arc

It’s that time of year that I turn my attention to a few overseas Racing markets. On Friday, I posted up a bit of evening racing at Moonee Valley in Australia and returned today to have a look at some of the other group racing. It’s with a view to gearing up to the Melbourne Cup Carnival.

Markets never stay exactly the same, so I’m always on the look out for changes. With the recent change in the Aussie API, …

01/10/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading the Ryder Cup

Trading the Ryder Cup

Once every two years, the sporting world turns its attention to what is turning into a classic sporting Rivalry, the Ryder Cup.

Many years ago it didn’t have anything like the profile it does now. Post war it was a chance of US golfers to show how much better they were than UK players. Then the rules changed to make their opponents UK and Ireland, but that was still dominated by the US. Then in 1985 when it became the …

30/09/2016 | By | Reply More
The greatest show on earth?

The greatest show on earth?

Tonight in the US we have the first presidential debate and what an interesting one it looks like it will be!

Take your side

In the red corner we have the eccentric, surely can’t be elected president, TV personality Donald Trump. And in the blue corner we have the political dynasty that are the Clintons.

Political markets rise in prominence

Political markets on Betfair are becoming very big business and this prominence within the marketplace reached a peak during the …

26/09/2016 | By | Reply More
Manual or automated?

Manual or automated?

It was with interest this week that somebody pointed me to a blog post debating, or should I say justifying a stance on automated trading vs manual trading. Here is my angle on it: –

Financial markets

If you look to financial markets you have many aspects to it. High-frequency traders, slamming in positions in and out of the market to scrape a few cents per trade in as large a block as they can get through. A very specialist …

24/09/2016 | By | Reply More
Calamity Cambridgeshire

Calamity Cambridgeshire

I’ve picked off a few good results from the Cambridgeshire in the past and hope to this weekend. But I will remember this race forever for a disaster I had in 2011. Perhaps appropriate given the Betfair outage earlier this week, which I doubt that will be repeated. But is right at the forefront of my mind as I approach the big race tomorrow.

Outage outrage

Back in 2011 as we approached the key race of the day people started

23/09/2016 | By | Reply More
Quick Sand – Racing at Laytown

Quick Sand – Racing at Laytown

The races

Since 1868 Laytown has hosted the annual race meeting like no other. With no formal race course to host the equine competitors, these horses are raced on the beach. Laytown catches the attention of wide range of racing and non-racing goers each year.

Quite a few years ago I was captivated by the sight of horses running on the beach. It just seemed a bit different and interesting. So I set my sights on visiting this very unique

13/09/2016 | By | Reply More
US Open Tennis

US Open Tennis

How I learnt to trade Tennis

When I first started to trade Tennis, I needed a few things to be in place. One of those was an understanding of how odds move in Tennis match.

The reasoning was that if I knew that, I could pitch my opening and closing trades roughly where I wanted, where the market would move to. I could also start searching for ‘precursors’ to that key point in the match.

Also, with so many matches

31/08/2016 | By | Reply More
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