RSSCategory: Trading strategies

How to win the Premier League

How to win the Premier League

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite

11/08/2017 | By | Reply More
More Moore at Goodwood

More Moore at Goodwood

Goodwood should have been renamed Greywood at the start of the festival, such was the miserable weather that accompanied what should have been a glorious week on the Sussex downs. But it was notable for one particular day.

The weather had a huge impact on the meeting last week and produced a below par performance from me and from the markets. I’d imagine most attendees on course last week, spent most of their time hiding from the incessant rain and …

10/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Had a good week last week? Here’s why…

Had a good week last week? Here’s why…

You may have seen me post up results or information along the lines of ‘If you did this with £100 you would have managed to achieve this’.

I collect and analyse a lot of data and it’s all with the aim of identifying biases and the structural nature of a market. You would be surprised how many markets exhibit biases. Some have exhibited a structural bias for my entire trading career. I’ve casually dropped hints now and again and it’s …

03/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading ‘Good-way’

Trading ‘Good-way’

No that’s not a typo! There are two meetings that should get your attention this week.

From a trading perspective, I like multi day high-quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to any month.

Goodwood

As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very …

30/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Where Angels fear to tread

Where Angels fear to tread

One thing I’ve learnt over time is that whether it’s short term trading on Betfair or long term investing in financial markets being a contrarian seems to be a very, very effective strategy.

Why does contrarian behaviour work?

Over the years I’ve spent a lot of time looking at psychology and its impact on decision-making and it’s proved a fascinating subject. I’ve immersed myself in as much material as I can find, all in the quest of really trying to …

23/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading the Open Golf

Trading the Open Golf

The British Open is different from other majors in that it is played on rotation schedule across a number of ‘links’ courses in the UK. Links courses are traditionally near the sea, are near or on dunes, have an uneven surface and a sandy soil. This is in stark contrast to a lot of ‘modern’ courses which are often set in parkland or woods and carefully manicured.

How ‘links’ golf differs

Links golf is very different from traditional golf in

19/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Gamesmanship in Tennis

Gamesmanship in Tennis

It was interesting to see the outrage over Cillic’s very slow service during the Wimbledon semi-finals.

http://www.express.co.uk/sport/tennis/828680/Wimbledon-2017-Marin-Cilic-Sam-Querrey-fans-furious-semi-final

Gamesmanship

I’ve mentioned on the blog several times that elements of gamesmanship are prevalent in Tennis. They are all designed to throw the person on the other side of the net off balance and out of the zone.

You see medical timeouts, comfort breaks, disputes, rain breaks when there are just a few drops. There is no better way to put your opponent …

15/07/2017 | By | Reply More
An Ace is worth more than a point

An Ace is worth more than a point

When you read that statement it looks a little strange. How can one point be worth more than another? But statistics seem to show that’s true. With Murray about to line up against a big server at Wimbledon so let’s look at the perfect serve.

Wimbledon

Wimbledon is the home of mighty servers, with alternate big servers booming the ball past their opponent. But what effect does it have? Some, it appears.

Over the last couple of years, I’ve been …

12/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Why I never turn my phone off, ever….

Why I never turn my phone off, ever….

Most people know the significance of this date, but for a small group of traders, this date has even more significance.

Our story of this day

It started the same as any other day. I was scheduled to do a talk in central London on guess what, trading on betting exchanges. I took the train in central London, as did my delegates and after switching from overground to underground I remember clearly looking at the clock on the exit at

07/07/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
Tennis – Small margins, large number of points

Tennis – Small margins, large number of points

If you have been active on Wimbledon you would have seen some great matches. But you should have also seen something else, maybe without realising it.

Odd odds

Often you see an outsider really battle away at a heavy odds-on favourite, maybe even winning the first set, but despite this, their odds don’t seem to come in that much. If you look at top player against a lower player, the outsider can be one set all and leading 4-1. But …

07/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream

Making mincemeat of Strawberries and cream

Here is how Bet Angel can help you this Wimbledon, whether you trade Tennis or not.

It’s packed full of features that are a must-have for any Tennis trader, established or aspiring.

I don’t trade Tennis

That’s not a problem, but maybe you should look at this popular in-play sport, especially during Wimbledon?

Bet Angel has free Tennis bots and can operate in practice mode which means there is no risk to your money. The advanced automation can execute ‘set …

02/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Why Saturday is like a mini Ascot for me

Why Saturday is like a mini Ascot for me

When I first started sports trading, I treated it like a 9-5 job.

I did all the usual things you would in a normal job and returned to my out of work activities after the day was over. Fairly quickly I realised that this wasn’t going to work and was a terrible error of judgement. All the best opportunities seemed to occur outside of ‘normal’ hours and therefore I had to shift my working patterns. 

Shifting my workload

At first,

01/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Ascot 2017 post meeting summary

Ascot 2017 post meeting summary

I’ve been meaning to summarise Ascot. It’s always worth doing as you can refer back to it next year for comparison, so here goes: –

Turnover

Betfair ended up matching, at post time, around £70.5m which was up on last year by about 23%. Last year was down quite a bit so this returns the matched bet turnover to levels that would be deemed ‘normal’.

In the run up to Ascot, I reckoned it would trade around £65m so that’s …

30/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading Royal Ascot

Trading Royal Ascot

And so here we are another year, another Ascot. That came around quickly didn’t it?

For me, it’s another declined invitation to attend the event. While that pains me somewhat, for the moment, I’d still rather be on this side of the desk during one of the busiest weeks of the year. You wouldn’t see a professional footballer work hard all season, only to decline the chance to play in the Champions League final. So missing any major meeting is

19/06/2017 | By | Reply More
US PGA Golf

US PGA Golf

Before we talk specifically about trading the US Open, why not check out our Golf trading videos at https://www.betangel.tv

I enjoy my annual foray into the US Open Golf because it reminds me of my very first activity on betting exchanges way back in June 2000. Aside from a small flutter on some financial markets, it was the Golf that launched my betting exchange career. Back then Tiger Woods was being offered at 4.00 for the championship and Colin Montgomerie …

14/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Going Grey

Going Grey

Back in 2010, I commented during some bleak winters months, I had a dabble at Greyhound markets.

Since then I hadn’t done much work on Greyhounds as the return per day didn’t justify the effort. However, since that last post, two things may me revisit them.

The first is some renewed interest in the forum, and the second is the turnover figures I saw when I reviewed the markets at the start of the year. Bet Angel has …

11/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Punting on Politics – General election turnout

Punting on Politics – General election turnout

I did a little piece on the General election recently for Betfair. Underlying it was some work I’d looked at recently on turnout for elections.

Apathy

When the election was called the markets shifted significantly anticipating a Conservative landslide. I immediately wondered if there would be a correlation between certainty and turnout. But first I had to work out what a ‘normal’ turnout would look like.

I looked back at elections since the second world and munched through some …

06/06/2017 | By | Reply More
French Open Tennis – Roland Garros

French Open Tennis – Roland Garros

Today see’s the start of the 4th Round of the Roland Garros and its certainly been an eventful first week to say the least.

On day one the women’s world number 1 Angelique Kerber was dumped out 6-2, 6-2 making her the only number one seed ever to be eliminated in the first round of the French Open – there has only ever been four number ones who have gone out in the first round across all Grand Slams.…

05/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Little and often soon adds up

Little and often soon adds up

This is a phrase I’ll often quote when advising people on how to trade.

The real objective when trading

It’s really nice to bang in some massive results now and again, but generally, that’s not what trading is about. Most of the time I’m in a market I’m just looking for an opportunity. Something I recognise as having a decent chance of a payoff, with as little downside as possible. Sometimes you just can’t see them and sometimes they are …

30/04/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
Aintree, the Grand National and fallers

Aintree, the Grand National and fallers

If there is one thing Aintree is known for it is spectacular fallers. In 2011 British racing yielded to public opinion and changed the fences at Aintree. The idea was to stop more fallers and serious injuries to horses. Did that happen? Will it happen? What the key factors behind a faller in a race?

Source data

To answer all the questions I took a look at half a million horses that raced around the various jumps races over the

07/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading the US Masters

Trading the US Masters

I like the US Masters. This is mainly because it’s the only major played on the same course each year. This means you can collect a ton of stats on how the course plays and form your strategies around that. It gives me a good guide as to when to trade in and out of a position. You can do this on most courses, but because the Masters is at the same location every year it is much more predictable.

04/04/2017 | By | Reply More
Street traders

Street traders

Formula one is back this weekend, so we will get to see how the new rule changes shape the sport this season.

The move to speed up the cars and make them more demanding is a welcome one. The drivers will enjoy it and hopefully, the fans will too. I delved into the sport in depth a few years ago and have kept all the records up to date to look at key aspects of it from a trading perspective. …

25/03/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading Cheltenham

Trading Cheltenham

It’s Cheltenham and that means that next week we will be treated to some quality racing and expected market turnover of £120m. I can’t wait.

In this post, I have put up plenty of statistics about what will and won’t work at Cheltenham and some comparisons to previous years. Hopefully, this will give you a few points. There is also plenty to help you get stuck into this Cheltenham if you are a Bet Angel user.

Latest releases

First of

11/03/2017 | By | Reply More
Knock out stages in European football

Knock out stages in European football

Knockout Stages of Champions League

February brings the knockout stages of the Champions league. The group stages tend to eliminate weaker teams from the tournament. The remaining, generally higher quality teams, know they are a few matches away from a shot at the glory of the champions league title. It’s all or nothing from here!

Key football trading features within Bet Angel

If you are interested in trading football, check out Bet Angel’s unique football trading tool, ‘Soccer Mystic’. This …

21/02/2017 | By | Reply More
The Betfair exchange in numbers

The Betfair exchange in numbers

I started collecting data on Betfair from the very early days and have carefully archived masses of work that I’ve done in the market.

I hoard data, even if I have no need for it, as I can go back and look at or compare previous periods. This is helpful in sporting terms to understand how the markets behaved in the past, but also I’ll often go back to apply something I recently discovered and see if results are consistent …

05/02/2017 | By | Reply More
The growth and growth of inplay

The growth and growth of inplay

It seems difficult to imagine a time when it wasn’t ‘all about the in-play’ – but before Ray and Betfair there really wasn’t much concept of betting on an event after the official start time. How things have changed!

The start

Back when exchanges started, it was purely a replication of the traditional bookmaker regime. Similar sports and similar punting styles, but exchanges brought this new concept of betting while an even was underway.

In essence, some markets were ‘in-play’ …

04/02/2017 | By | Reply More
Everybody needs a role model

Everybody needs a role model

I’m very excited to have pre-ordered Ed Thorp’s new book. I suspect it will go on my top recommendations list.

Principles to live by

It’s important in life to find something you can live by. Some principles, desire, a path to follow. Often you look to others to find that.

A long time ago, while still at school, I visited at a friends house. There I stumbled across a Commodore pet. Learning to do some basic stuff on …

29/01/2017 | By | Reply More
What are the best Tennis markets to trade?

What are the best Tennis markets to trade?

There is no such thing as a perfect trade or one that is completely riskless. So the next best thing is to find the best place to be in a market adn when.

Volatility in Tennis

When you are looking to trade Tennis you are effectively selling volatility. Markets are generally priced efficiently before the start of a match, but trading is all about exploiting how a player goes from that point to closing out a match. That progression can …

21/01/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading Tennis at the Australian Open

Trading Tennis at the Australian Open

January is when the Tennis season starts up again and it’s a great time to get some Tennis trading experience under your belt. With weaker markets elsewhere, the Australian Open is a great time to get going on Tennis.

If you want a quick browse of previous advice dispensed on Tennis, click here to search the blog for Tennis articles. But also view the playlist on betangel.tv. The forum is full of chatter from previous tournaments that should help …

14/01/2017 | By | Reply More
Trading the FA Cup

Trading the FA Cup

It’s the FA Cup third round this weekend and marks just over halfway point in the season.

Has the FA Cup lost it’s ‘magic’?

If you are talking about a smaller club meeting up with a goliath, then perhaps not. But it may be that the smaller club faces a diminished version of said goliath. As they say, Money talks and it doesn’t say much in the FA Cup, apart for smaller teams.

Win a game in the second round …

06/01/2017 | By | Reply More
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