Tag: ascot
Finding value in malevolent markets
You will be forgiven for thinking that humanity is an outdated concept that should be replaced. But they do say, to err is human. But to completely screw up, you need a computer!
Flash crashes
The stock market was set up to allow companies to raise investment capital from investors. A simple and effective concept that works. But modern financial markets are more like a giant casino. You can still raise funds, but the aftermarket dominates the central purpose. The …
A day of racing you shouldn’t miss
Tomorrow we have the finale to the flat turf season and a curtain raiser to the flat turf season. How can you have both? Let me explain.
Ascot champions day
First, we have ‘Champions day’ at Ascot and it promises to be a real feast of racing.
Champions day only came into being in 2011 so it’s relatively new in the scheme of things but it’s a weekend I wouldn’t miss for anything now. It’s the last shot at a …
Ascot 2017 post meeting summary
I’ve been meaning to summarise Ascot. It’s always worth doing as you can refer back to it next year for comparison, so here goes: –
Turnover
Betfair ended up matching, at post time, around £70.5m which was up on last year by about 23%. Last year was down quite a bit so this returns the matched bet turnover to levels that would be deemed ‘normal’.
In the run up to Ascot, I reckoned it would trade around £65m so that’s …
Deep breath
Here we go, summer starts right here!
I must admit to being a bit tired already, which isn’t great planning. But from this point on we have a really busy schedule ahead of us starting tonight. It’s the same every other year. Major footy championship, Ascot, Wimbledon, Cricket and half a dozen other sporting events combine to produce a smorgasbord of opportunity.
Over the next few weeks, you can trade very high quality and high liquidity markets in quick succession …
Punters ask for Moore
We are all familiar with a gambled horse.
It starts when a horse in a race receives particular attention. Seeing that horse is being backed, other people back it feeling they may be missing out on something. You find that often sets off a gamble as people discount a lot into the movement of the price of the horse as a ‘sign’, usually without any regard for the underlying rationale.
The Partnership gambler
Yesterday, we were treated to a different …
Royal Ascot week
Thanks for the feedback on World Cup stats. Inspired, I’ve combined a general overview of Ascot with some data on previous years meetings.
Please see the embedded video further down this post.
It goes without saying that Ascot is big, but how big? What are the biggest days? That may surprise you if you are not into the detail of racing. The flow of the week is different at Ascot as well, so it’s worth being aware of that as …
End of flat season nears – Trading advice
Nice to see Cheltenham on the card again, but with the first two races containing a total of nine runners, I’m not getting that excited about the jumps just yet.
Traditionally the end of the flat season is the November handicap at Doncaster. This falls on the 9th of November this year. But tomorrow being champions day at Ascot, will more or less be a celebration of the flat season.
The forecast for tomorrow is better than I expected …
Ascot so far
Sorry I didn’t provide an update yesterday, it’s just a very, very busy week!
The top line
On the top line turnover is down for Betfair and up for Betdaq. Betdaq numbers are harder to decipher than Betfair but you can see a persistent lift in turnover, however you view or cut the numbers.
On Betfair on the first three days produced £36.9m in matched bets vs £43.7m last year – £6.8m lower than last year. The current trend, turnover …
Ascot day one trading review
Total matched bet turnover at post time was £13.9m vs £15.6m last year, down 11%. But some of this will be due to the fact we didn’t have a really short priced favourite in the field. Today should give us a more representative day.
Yesterday was a little erratic and no clear trading characteristics came out of it. The first day of big meetings I tend to ‘play around’ a little in the market to test things and that went …
Farewell Frankel
A horses racing career is pretty short isn’t it?
It’s not something I had appreciated until I learnt more about horse racing. But being so highly rated Frankel is now too valuable to continue racing. Instead he will spend the rest of his days trying to produce ‘Frankel junior’ at some point in the future. Though there is a possibility we may not see another similar horse for quite a few years.
Undefeated in all 13 of his races, Frankel …
Trading Frankel
Not as easy at it sounds, as expected. But I did get something from the race. Mainly, as expected again, on Betdaq. In fact Betdaq was pretty favourable yesterday. I think today’s card overall looks a little more interesting and varied, so I’m hopeful of a decent day today.
Frankel’s market was characterised by a drift before the off. I was a bit surprised to see this, but it did also happen at Goodwood. You would have thought people would …
Royal Ascot so far
A blockbuster start to day one with Frankel opening proceedings and promptly romping home by an astonishing distance.
Matched bet turnover was up on last year, but that’s no surprise on the basis of Frankel’s very short price. Overall pre-off volumes are ahead of last year, £35.3m has been matched on the races of the first two days. Curiously in-running matched bet volumes are down £3m on last year.
Tuesday is the day when I try and work out what …
Royal Ascot – First up Frankel
So it’s finally here, Royal Ascot starts today and I can’t wait!
I’m going to have an easy morning each day this week so I can prepare and feel relaxed for the on-coming challenge of the busy Ascot markets. Yesterday I did a dry run of all my set-ups, back up positions, automation, settings etc. and then went out for a bike ride with my youngest daughter. So I’m relaxed and about as ready as I can be.
The only …
That’ll do nicely
I had a feeling Saturday would turn out to be an interesting day, so I pulled out all stops to take advantage. I did well and it was a real pleasure to net my best day ever (At least before commission).
I managed to pick up a lot of decent results from a wide spectrum of events on both exchanges. Thanks to favourable commission rates and favourable liquidity conditions on Betdaq, it meant I found it pretty easy to beat …
Good start to a good day
Got up early this morning to give the Caulfield cup a bash and got it just right for a really good result.
We have a ton of really good racing at Ascot today so that should produce some really good potential as well. I am sure everybody will be keen to see Frankel run again and at such short odds you would expect the win to be a formality.
Such short odds in such a big race will mean the …
Final day of a busy week
Well done to Rory McIlroy who continued to rip through the US Open. Unfortunately this scuppered my trade which needs a competitive field to work. At 1.40ish this leaves only one possible strategy, to back or lay McIlroy. I reckon most people will lay McIlroy given his blow up in the US Masters. It’s a clear fact however, that the error most people make is to take past trends and extrapolate them into the future. Rather than go on gut …
Royal Ascot / Open Golf Thursday
Another good day in the bag for Royal Ascot, but I left it late today. I didn’t get a real blockbuster race till near the end of the card. I had to work much harder than yesterday and I took my foot of Betdaq, as working harder meant I couldn’t keep focus on two exchanges effectively. I did broaden my activity out on Betdaq though to other races and they worked well. So after Ascot I’m going to continue my …
Ascot – Day one summary
I thought that went quite well. I struggled last year but this year was ok and I could have done better if I was a bit more aggressive. In hindsight I was too passive yesterday, didn’t take on board enough risk. So I’ll give myself an 8/10 as it was good, but I could have done better.
Frankel made a bit of a mess of the feature race of the day and the market on Frankel was so strong that …
Royal Ascot day one
An intriguing day one at Ascot. After all, what colour hat will the Queen be wearing. LOL!
I’ll be all guns on the first day to work out what feel the market brings this year. I’ve paid a lot of attention to Ascot over the years and each year we see the market shift subtly in one direction or the other. I didn’t do a very good job of it last year, comparatively speaking, so I’ll want to put in …
Ascot
It’s that time of year when the Queen nips out the house and down the road to have a fiver or two on a few nags. I’ll also be looking to put a few fivers on them as well, but from behind my desk. When I’ve finished all my work on betting exchanges, maybe I will nip up the road for once! Ascot has always been a key part of the summer racing and it’s no surprise with five days …
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