Tag: betfair

Trading ‘Good-way’

Trading ‘Good-way’

No that’s not a typo! There are two meetings that should get your attention this week.

From a trading perspective, I like multi day high-quality meetings. They usually throw up some good opportunities and are a welcome addition to any month.

Goodwood

As you may know, these higher quality meetings produce extra volume and that can change the characteristics significantly. But don’t let Goodwood fool you into thinking it’s the same as a Royal Ascot or Cheltenham, it behaves very …

30/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Ascot 2017 post meeting summary

Ascot 2017 post meeting summary

I’ve been meaning to summarise Ascot. It’s always worth doing as you can refer back to it next year for comparison, so here goes: –

Turnover

Betfair ended up matching, at post time, around £70.5m which was up on last year by about 23%. Last year was down quite a bit so this returns the matched bet turnover to levels that would be deemed ‘normal’.

In the run up to Ascot, I reckoned it would trade around £65m so that’s …

30/06/2017 | By | Reply More
The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby when the summer racing really starts to step up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.

If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …

02/06/2017 | By | Reply More
Little and often soon adds up

Little and often soon adds up

This is a phrase I’ll often quote when advising people on how to trade.

The real objective when trading

It’s really nice to bang in some massive results now and again, but generally, that’s not what trading is about. Most of the time I’m in a market I’m just looking for an opportunity. Something I recognise as having a decent chance of a payoff, with as little downside as possible. Sometimes you just can’t see them and sometimes they are …

30/04/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
The Betfair exchange in numbers

The Betfair exchange in numbers

I started collecting data on Betfair from the very early days and have carefully archived masses of work that I’ve done in the market.

I hoard data, even if I have no need for it, as I can go back and look at or compare previous periods. This is helpful in sporting terms to understand how the markets behaved in the past, but also I’ll often go back to apply something I recently discovered and see if results are consistent …

05/02/2017 | By | Reply More
The growth and growth of inplay

The growth and growth of inplay

It seems difficult to imagine a time when it wasn’t ‘all about the in-play’ – but before Ray and Betfair there really wasn’t much concept of betting on an event after the official start time. How things have changed!

The start

Back when exchanges started, it was purely a replication of the traditional bookmaker regime. Similar sports and similar punting styles, but exchanges brought this new concept of betting while an even was underway.

In essence, some markets were ‘in-play’ …

04/02/2017 | By | Reply More
How to win £45m in a few minutes

How to win £45m in a few minutes

Five years ago today we were treated to a day of spectacular proportions!

Leopardstown

We are now out of the Kempton meeting and into a quieter period, but Leopardstown brings us the key targets of the day and is worthy of a look. I’m less convinced by other markets.

Today the two big races are the Lexus chase and the Christmas hurdle. The meeting overall has prize money of £145k which is more than all the other meetings combined.

Leopardstown

28/12/2016 | By | Reply More
Be Prepared – Always Have a Back Up Plan

Be Prepared – Always Have a Back Up Plan

How many times have you had an open trade only for an unforeseen incident out of your control too suddenly occur resulting in you not being able to close your position and possibly leaving you staring at a hefty loss – especially if it’s an open lay position.

If this is something that your fortunate not to have experienced yet then it’s worth reading on if you want to keep it that way, for those unfortunate to have already been …

17/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Difficult to Trump that

Difficult to Trump that

Well that was interesting.

It was clear for some time that this was going to be a huge market. Interestingly enough, the same guy I know that foresaw the financial crisis, also saw this development. I’m now his devout follower forever and would jump off a bridge if he told me it was appropriate 🙂

democrate-4322-total-delegates

Previous markets

I started looking at this particular market back in 2004. Clinton was a democratic nominee back then as well and I’ve revisited each …

10/11/2016 | By | Reply More
September Salisbury and it’s importance

September Salisbury and it’s importance

Today we had a meeting at Salisbury, that’s not unusual in the summer. But the last meeting has some significance for me.

The reason that race is important to me is that way back in 2003 Betfair published information on a specific race. The information published, which was available in the public domain, was the feature race at Salisbury on that particular day.

The reason for the importance

The reason the race was so important was that Betfair went full …

09/09/2016 | By | Reply More
Training course – Learn to trade on Betfair

Training course – Learn to trade on Betfair

Preamble

If you are looking at learning to trade, here is a way to get a really good start onto the first step of the trading ladder.

If you are coming from a gambling background, from matched betting or you are just intrigued by trading on sports. We can give you improved confidence in your initial trading journey by teaching you how to trade on Betfair. We’ve created a course that will do that perfectly for you.

You will get …

13/08/2016 | By | Reply More
Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?

Do Betfair markets reflect true opinion?

OK, for years the exchange mechanism has provided a very useful pricing mechanism. A careful aggregation of demand between people competing on a level playing field and it has provided a beautiful insight into the way free markets can work to mysteriously, accurately, price an event –  in this case the prediction that something will win a sports event.

Changes

But we have been watching closely as the market has gradually decoupled from it’s long established core. What do we …

15/07/2016 | By | Reply More
Betfair exchange advertising

Betfair exchange advertising

Great news, Betfair are going to start pushing the exchange again. I can’t remember the last time I saw an exchange advert so it was a delight to discover they are going to give it a push this weekend!

Here is one of the adverts posted on their You Tube channel: –

22/04/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
How evening racing is different

How evening racing is different

We have now started the evening racing in earnest and it won’t stop till the end of August. So you have four months to make hay while the sun shines, not forgetting we are in the England, so it won’t shine much.

However, there are at least four different states that you see in racing during this period.

(1) Afternoon racing

This tends to me higher quality than the evening racing and will therefore trade differently.

(2) Evening racing

There

20/04/2016 | By | Reply More
Trading Cheltenham

Trading Cheltenham

There is plenty to help you and get stuck into this Cheltenham if you are a Bet Angel user. Not only do you have a vast range of tools available but also the biggest set of videos you can image, a busy forum to chat to other traders and if you are looking to trading automatically a library of examples.Plenty to get stuck into on one of the biggest trading weeks of the year.

There is plenty to get stuck

12/03/2016 | By | Reply More
I think I’ve spotted a trend!

I think I’ve spotted a trend!

I must admit, the Melbourne Cup Carnival has got off to a slow start for me this year. So I thought I’d better check on whether I was underperforming, or whether there was something else going on.

Something else in going on.

I took the first two days of the Carnival from my records and analysed total turnover in the markets for those two days. Obviously it started from a lower base some time ago, but the peak was in …

04/11/2015 | By | 2 Replies More
The distorting impact of XM on Tennis

The distorting impact of XM on Tennis

I was trying to think of a better headline, but that will have to do!

XM means ‘cross matching’ and while I was trading some of the activity in the pre-off markets this evening on the US Open Tennis men’s final I switched it on and off to have a look underneath the main market. Cross matching is the complicated, in most cases unnecessary, process that Betfair uses to offer bets on both sides of the market. On Tennis, being

13/09/2015 | By | Reply More
Betfair shock market with Paddy Power merger

Betfair shock market with Paddy Power merger

It’s not often you get a full blown WTF moment, but we got one this morning with news that former Paddy Power COO, Breon Corcoran, who is now Betfair CEO. Has agreed to a takeover / merger with Paddy Power.

It is being positioned as a merger, but the simple fact is that Betfair will be a minority in the new partnership only holding a 48% stake of the company, Paddy Power would hold a 52% stake. Paddy Power are

26/08/2015 | By | Reply More
Will models like Augur replace Betfair?

Will models like Augur replace Betfair?

Back during the dot-com boom in the year 2000 disintermediation was a keyword that was floating around.

If you used word disintermediation in a sentence along with the words  dot-com, it was highly likely that you’d be able to secure funding for your project the matter how much money you asked for, or how stupid the idea was. Disintermediation was the posh word for what is now known to become as peer-to-peer engagement. Basically two people trading services or goods

12/08/2015 | By | Reply More
Numis issue sell note on Betfair

Numis issue sell note on Betfair

A few days old but worthy of note. Numis have issued a sell note on Betfair.

I respect Ivor Jones’s opinion on Betfair because he often asks very good questions during the conference calls and has a better handle on the business than most analysts. He also can be objective and I can’t! So it’s worth noting his comments. 

“It is not, in our view, on track for the market dominance which merits “unicorn” status and which appears to us

25/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Punters ask for Moore

Punters ask for Moore

We are all familiar with a gambled horse.

It starts when a horse in a race receives particular attention. Seeing that horse is being backed, other people back it feeling they may be missing out on something. You find that often sets off a gamble as people discount a lot into the movement of the price of the horse as a ‘sign’, usually without any regard for the underlying rationale.

The Partnership gambler

Yesterday, we were treated to a different

19/06/2015 | By | Reply More
ATP In-Game Tennis Trading

ATP In-Game Tennis Trading

Many Thanks to Dan Weston who was the guest poster for this article, visit Dan’s excellent Tennis ratings site for lots of useful Tennis stats.

Several weeks ago, we discussed point by point trading in the WTA, primarily looking at laying the player a break up and taking money out during a service game.  As mentioned before, this allows more risk-averse traders to clear some or all liability at various in-game scorelines, and these were grouped into two brackets:-

11/06/2015 | By | Reply More
The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

The Oak’s Betfair’s first ever market

So today we reach the Oaks and tomorrow the Derby, when the summer racing really starts to step  up a gear. The start of June means Royal Ascot is just around the corner.

If you are a Betfair newbie you may not know that the Oaks at Epsom was Betfair’s first market way back when they started in June 2000. But it was a little later that year, on June 11th. Mark Davis reminisced on his blog about it. I …

05/06/2015 | By | Reply More
Best of a bad job

Best of a bad job

Well that was an interesting day. I knew it was going to be a case of doing the best I could in tricky circumstances. Despite being tired it all worked out roughly in the end. But it didn’t feel like a successful day!

First up, the run-away leader in the US Masters made this a particularly tricky Masters this year around. I wanted a record result, I desperately wanted to break a four figure sum but it looks like that

11/04/2015 | By | Reply More
Betfair results send share price rocketing

Betfair results send share price rocketing

Betfair announced a glowing set of results this morning: –

http://corporate.betfair.com/media/press-releases/2015/05-03-2015.aspx

Since Breon Corcoran came to power we have seen a shift from the exchange very much to the sportsbook on Betfair and it seems to be working, for them. I haven’t seen any advertising for the exchange for probably two years now. The rationale for this is that it’s easier to get customers onto the sportbook. Number of active customers are up 35% to 760,000, so that is true!

05/03/2015 | By | Reply More
Major upgrade for BETDAQangel

Major upgrade for BETDAQangel

We are pleased to announce a new version of Bet Angel for Betdaq.

Bet Angel for Betdaq is completely free of charge, so there is no reason why you shouldn’t download and try a copy. If you don’t have a Betdaq account we can set one up for you when you install the software.

This is a major upgrade and brings with it many features that people have previously requested and brings Betdaq up in line with features that

30/01/2015 | By | Reply More
Regulator gets tough on Spoofing

Regulator gets tough on Spoofing

It would be nice if this were a statement related to Betfair, but hey, such is life.

This actually is a statement from regulators in financial markets. Spoofing there is consider a form of market manipulation and therefore is illegal. The deal in financial markets is if you manipulate a market to profit it’s wrong. The rationale behind this is that you are tricking people out of their money. This doesn’t add any value to the market and is a …

22/12/2014 | By | Reply More
Time to book your Betfair holiday

Time to book your Betfair holiday

For the larger commission payers amongst you, this is a reminder to make sure you examine whether its worth booking your Betfair holiday before Sunday for the next week or two

When you generate commission you get credited with Betfair points. The more points you have the lower commission you pay. But each week Betfair decay a big chunk of your points which you would then top up with more activity.

Next week is a short week, especially if you …

19/12/2014 | By | Reply More
Betfair Australia to focus on exchange business

Betfair Australia to focus on exchange business

Many thanks to posted on this thread on the forum for pointing out the news that is coming from Australia.

Basically Betfair sold their operations to Crown and Crown has done a deal to split off the Sportsbook business to BetEasy and retain the Exchange as a brand in its own right and to allow that to gain it’s own focus. It’s a complete volta-face from the situation in the Uk and is worth watching. You couldn’t have two more …

17/12/2014 | By | Reply More
Is NBA the new WTA?

Is NBA the new WTA?

During my recent travels in the US I sat down at a bar one evening and watched some Basketball. It was an entertaining experience. Fellow bar attendees proffered their opinion and curiosity overwhelmed me, so I reached into my pocket fired up the Betfair app and had a look at the market.

Here is something you may not know.  You CAN’T actually log in and place a bet from the US, but you CAN actively look up a market and …

13/12/2014 | By | Reply More
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