Tag: featured

A day of racing you shouldn’t miss

A day of racing you shouldn’t miss

Tomorrow we have the finale to the flat turf season and a curtain raiser to the flat turf season. How can you have both? Let me explain.

Ascot champions day

First, we have ‘Champions day’ at Ascot and it promises to be a real feast of racing.

Champions day only came into being in 2011 so it’s relatively new in the scheme of things but it’s a weekend I wouldn’t miss for anything now. It’s the last shot at a …

20/10/2017 | By | Reply More
Being lucky…

Being lucky…

I’m often told that I’m lucky. You are lucky that you can do this, you are lucky that you have that, it’s lucky that this happened and so on.

But the fact is, underlying all elements of luck are two important characteristics, belief and perseverance.

Belief

Some people are given a good start in life, some are not. I wasn’t given the best start in life, but certainly not the worse. I found myself as a teenager a bit …

14/10/2017 | By | Reply More
How bookmakers make money

How bookmakers make money

Back when, ‘I was but lad’, I stumbled into the world of bookmakers.

I arrived there via the football pools and thought I’d apply similar techniques at the bookmakers. But I soon realised there were a few problems doing this.

Problems

The first problem I had was getting the bet on, I couldn’t really bet in the size I wanted without being limited. Secondly, I could only do plain old vanilla betting. If I tried something more complex I’d often …

08/10/2017 | By | Reply More
Seasonality in Horse Racing

Seasonality in Horse Racing

Still, plenty of racing to look forward to and the champions meeting still to come followed by the restart of Cheltenham, but what happens as we move into the winter?

There are plenty of highlights around at this time and more as we head into the full on jumps season. For some reason, I know it’s named after a horse, the Tingle Creek meeting at Sandown sounds Christmassy to me, but for sure is an early high point in December. …

05/10/2017 | By | 1 Reply More
Most and least volatile racecourses to trade

Most and least volatile racecourses to trade

I did a tweet recently that stated a little trading fact, that Chelmsford City was the most volatile course. I had a fairly immediate retort, that stated it wasn’t a fact but was ‘just’ an opinion. It was actually a carefully researched fact.

Volatility

I’ve collected data on volatility right from day one of my trading journey and have built up a massive database of data. One of the things I study is how volatile the market is.

I measure …

16/09/2017 | By | 2 Replies More
High probability Betfair trading strategies

High probability Betfair trading strategies

Sounds nice doesn’t it, winning positions regularly topping up your account? Please send your $37 to…….

New strategy

With the start of the jumps season just around the corner, I’m going to be pursuing a new, automated, in-play strategy. I did all the hard work last year qualifying what I wanted to do and test the assumptions, which are often wrong. So now it’s time to put it into practice.

It will lose money and on a frequent basis and …

10/09/2017 | By | Reply More
Little and often – On Greyhounds

Little and often – On Greyhounds

Greyhounds markets are another good example of little and often. The average Greyhound race only turns over £15k or so per race so it’s really not a very liquid market. Even then, the money arrives really late. but there are very large amounts of greyhound races.

I recently revisited the Greyhounds markets after a seven-year absence.  If you want some background as to why, have a read of this blog post: –

Going Grey

Since revisiting the markets I’ve now …

01/09/2017 | By | 4 Replies More
Psychology in sport – Tennis

Psychology in sport – Tennis

I started writing a broad piece on Psychology but it got too big, so I’ve broken off chunks and will list them on the blog for your interest.

Psychology everywhere

Psychology isn’t something that is limited to the minds of traders, it’s out there on the sports field and in the associated markets as well. I’ve observed all sorts of strange biases that just don’t have any place in a rational world, but feature heavily and persistently in the markets …

29/08/2017 | By | 2 Replies More
Trading Football on Betfair – Trading under 2.5 goals

Trading Football on Betfair – Trading under 2.5 goals

The Soccer Mystic profiling tool is a way to help identify opportunities and give you that all important edge when trading soccer matches – it’s packed with a number of features to assist you when trading any of the Match odds, Over/Under or Correct Score markets and will help you pin point what times to get into and out of positions for the most value.

If you prefer the Over/Under markets then Soccer Mystic can offer you some invaluable help, …

27/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Unbelievable Jeff – Trading comebacks in football

Unbelievable Jeff – Trading comebacks in football

I think it’s safe to say we all had fun watching some of the opening premier league fixtures last weekend.

While it would be nice to think the whole season will be packed full of action of this kind, with remarkable comebacks and sterling fightbacks,  it’s unlikely.

Trading opportunities

Obviously, a notable match was the champions, Chelsea, losing at home to Burnley who struggled to muster any decent away form last year. I and a number of people picked up …

19/08/2017 | By | Reply More
How to win the Premier League

How to win the Premier League

As the new season is upon us all football fans up and down the country will no doubt have fresh hopes about what the season will bring. Transfers have been done and hopes raised. But what is it that makes a team successful? What is the most defining characteristic?

The defining characteristic

As is well known, a lot of club revenue gets spent on wages to attract top players. This is in the hope that buying talent buys performances. Quite

11/08/2017 | By | Reply More
More Moore at Goodwood

More Moore at Goodwood

Goodwood should have been renamed Greywood at the start of the festival, such was the miserable weather that accompanied what should have been a glorious week on the Sussex downs. But it was notable for one particular day.

The weather had a huge impact on the meeting last week and produced a below par performance from me and from the markets. I’d imagine most attendees on course last week, spent most of their time hiding from the incessant rain and …

10/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Had a good week last week? Here’s why…

Had a good week last week? Here’s why…

You may have seen me post up results or information along the lines of ‘If you did this with £100 you would have managed to achieve this’.

I collect and analyse a lot of data and it’s all with the aim of identifying biases and the structural nature of a market. You would be surprised how many markets exhibit biases. Some have exhibited a structural bias for my entire trading career. I’ve casually dropped hints now and again and it’s …

03/08/2017 | By | Reply More
Where Angels fear to tread

Where Angels fear to tread

One thing I’ve learnt over time is that whether it’s short term trading on Betfair or long term investing in financial markets being a contrarian seems to be a very, very effective strategy.

Why does contrarian behaviour work?

Over the years I’ve spent a lot of time looking at psychology and its impact on decision-making and it’s proved a fascinating subject. I’ve immersed myself in as much material as I can find, all in the quest of really trying to …

23/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Why Saturday is like a mini Ascot for me

Why Saturday is like a mini Ascot for me

When I first started sports trading, I treated it like a 9-5 job.

I did all the usual things you would in a normal job and returned to my out of work activities after the day was over. Fairly quickly I realised that this wasn’t going to work and was a terrible error of judgement. All the best opportunities seemed to occur outside of ‘normal’ hours and therefore I had to shift my working patterns. 

Shifting my workload

At first,

01/07/2017 | By | Reply More
Ten years apart

Ten years apart

A reflective and rather long post for the bank holiday weekend.

Don’t look back in anger

I recently looked back at some stats from the start of 2007 and compared them to 2017. I’ll often compare previous periods and markets to see what I find. I’ve always archived huge amounts of data as doing so allows me to monitor my own activity, but also see how the market changes over time.

My strike rate on racing in 2007 was a …

15/04/2017 | By | Reply More
The Betfair exchange in numbers

The Betfair exchange in numbers

I started collecting data on Betfair from the very early days and have carefully archived masses of work that I’ve done in the market.

I hoard data, even if I have no need for it, as I can go back and look at or compare previous periods. This is helpful in sporting terms to understand how the markets behaved in the past, but also I’ll often go back to apply something I recently discovered and see if results are consistent …

05/02/2017 | By | Reply More
The growth and growth of inplay

The growth and growth of inplay

It seems difficult to imagine a time when it wasn’t ‘all about the in-play’ – but before Ray and Betfair there really wasn’t much concept of betting on an event after the official start time. How things have changed!

The start

Back when exchanges started, it was purely a replication of the traditional bookmaker regime. Similar sports and similar punting styles, but exchanges brought this new concept of betting while an even was underway.

In essence, some markets were ‘in-play’ …

04/02/2017 | By | Reply More
Everybody needs a role model

Everybody needs a role model

I’m very excited to have pre-ordered Ed Thorp’s new book. I suspect it will go on my top recommendations list.

Principles to live by

It’s important in life to find something you can live by. Some principles, desire, a path to follow. Often you look to others to find that.

A long time ago, while still at school, I visited at a friends house. There I stumbled across a Commodore pet. Learning to do some basic stuff on …

29/01/2017 | By | Reply More
Starting out as a sports trader – Scaling up

Starting out as a sports trader – Scaling up

I was back on my small account on Monday. I was recording a few videos at low stakes (I posted one last week) and also giving instruction to my daughter; she is progressing nicely.

I’m also teaching a new recruit to the team. It’s interesting to watch and learn from newbies and how they look at the market. I feel like It’s a microcosm of the entire market. I ‘feel’ this in the market every day, but experiencing first hand …

14/12/2016 | By | 4 Replies More
Bet Angel – Now ten times faster!

Bet Angel – Now ten times faster!

We are pleased to announce that a new version of Bet Angel is now available.

The upgrade is free for all trial and existing users. There is no need to re-register. To upgrade simply download the latest version, install and log in!

Download it from here: –

http://www.betangel.com/download/?product=BetAngelPro

Key new feature – Exchange price streaming

This version adds support for Betfair’s Exchange Streaming for prices and bet updates. The feature is switched off by default but is activated by ticking …

26/11/2016 | By | Reply More
Ebor or Ebore?

Ebor or Ebore?

Summer racing isn’t over quite yet and today kicks of the Ebor meeting at York. I’ve traditionally done OK at this festival each year so I am looking for something above average this week.

The Ebor meeting can yield some good results, but nothing is ever guaranteed and this meeting can be a bit random at times so it’s probably not going to be all plain sailing. It should be better than what we have been seeing recently though.

Traditionally, …

17/08/2016 | By | 2 Replies More
Finding a front runner – Exclusive offer & free trial

Finding a front runner – Exclusive offer & free trial

Click here to take up an exclusive free seven day trial of Pacecards

Trading in-running

One excellent strategy you can use on betting exchanges, is backing or laying before the off and trading out in-play. Many Bet Angel customers do this or a variation of this, , as part of a profitable activity in the market.

In-running tools

Bet Angel is great for this as you can do it manually or automatically using the automation. On the manual front we

16/03/2016 | By | 1 Reply More
Using Bet Angel – Walkthrough videos

Using Bet Angel – Walkthrough videos

I’ve had quite a few requests for, a simple to view, list of videos on getting started with Bet Angel. So this week I’ve uploaded an entirely new play list for – getting started, the one click screen and the ladder interface.

These videos are not my normal videos, but instead they are shorter and designed so that newbies have a clear path to follow for getting started in trading in simple steps. This should get your trading faster than

11/03/2016 | By | Reply More
My job as a football data scout

My job as a football data scout

When you look on Betfair you will see a graphic, this graphic is telling you things like ‘Dangerous attack’. Corner, substitution or goal. Lots of bookmakers use this service now and a lot of them, including Betfair, use it to manage markets automatically.  If you ever wondered where this info comes from, or why a match ‘losses its feed’ or experiences ‘technical difficulties’ read on…..

08-08-2015 - Running ball

How I got a job as a scout

In the couple of years when I

09/08/2015 | By | 7 Replies More
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