S.Africa v England test Match trading thread

T20, IPL, Test matches or the Ashes, discuss it here.
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SportBilly
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Interesting game indeed. I have managed to somehow be very patient this test and laid the draw at tea.

A great couple of wickets after tea and I've traded out for now. If only all trades went this well!

A pretty even test match at the moment, ENG poss ahead.
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SportBilly
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Now du Plessis gone just as I typed previous post.
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megarain
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SA 220-5

Eng 1.8

SA 3.5

Draw 6.4

Job done
henbet22
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megarain that is quality. Gutted to miss out getting a feel for the correct pacing/rythmn

Looking further ahead is the next entry price point for the draw lay if it comes is in the 2.2-1.8 range on Sat? That is what I would aim for I think.

Do you run smaller ranges than that and therefore smaller stops?

As ever don't answer if you think you are giving too much away!!
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megarain
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COP .. SA 309-6 .. Par score, might be 300/375/400 depending who u speak to.

Eng 2.7 (Day 1 high, 4.5, low 1.52)

SA 2.9 (Day 1 high, 4.5, low 2.5)

Draw 3.5 (Day 1 high, 8.0, low 2.7)

I frankly havent a scooby, who I like to win .. or even.what to do, in the next session. So, am flat, having taken profits, on some good trades.

The draw is most unlikely to go, 1.8-2.2 on Sat .. It needs a v specific set of circumstances, which, I cant see happening. I imagine the draw is a lay now, but, think u can wait, to get it cheaper.

Thinking about stuff .. I will respond to emails etc, when I get a chance.
henbet22
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Ok that's great. Thx.
Think I will look to lay SA if Eng 1 or 2 down early on then.
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megarain
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Day 3 beckons.

Draw 20, and game looks possibly like Lords, where its over in 4 days, despite fact u could lay draw in both games, sub 3.0.

Now, if only we could somehow automate this ...

:mrgreen:
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harsh
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@megarain

good info bro. legend.

question bro:
i am new to trading bro. so its obvious, every trading technique I find, looks like money making technique to me.
i am wondering (just happened yesterday in Sri lanka vs Zimbabve test match) odds of the Draw drift up to 200+. So this means person who laid at somewhere really down at 5 or 10 or 20 is having a huge $$$ in his account. or whoever backed on draw at 200+ then laid it at like at 50, looks like huge money. is this possible bro ?
thanks :D
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megarain
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Hi

What is a big account balance to someone, is peanuts to another. There was a story, or someone not cashing a $6m, winning jackpot ticket, becos, it would go to charity, if it was uncashed.

Cricket markets are a derivative from the Indian markets, which, 'maybe', 3x, Betfair.

If a test trades, £100m, on Bf, there is some serious market making, somewhere.

Some strats are kept by @crunchyfrog on twitter. They are maybe, a basis, for some serious money making.
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Euler
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Thanks for the thread, it's interesting to see others ideas on trading. I do very little cricket as I'm so busy elsewhere.

Are those stats just outright bets rather than trading strategies?
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megarain
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These stats, I believe, take Sp, and use a level stake etc. There is no in-play strategy.

As the draw, usually trades between 3.5 and 4.5, pre-game, its impossible to believe, that if u just asked to lay, lower, on Day 1, u wouldnt get a better return.

I am closing in, on the historical data .. or, at least, my programmer is. Hopefully, in the next 2 weeks, I will be able to run some simulations, on what would have happened, etc, and test some theories.

Time resource, is a interesting subject. Its obvious we each have specialist subjects. There is some cross-over, but, an awful lot, is screen-time, watching the same old stuff, time and again, and watching for patterns/mistakes.
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SportBilly
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Correct Megarain ref @crunchyfrog stats.

This description by @crunchyfrog was posted on the Betfair forum:

"One £100 bet at SP (before the toss), back or lay the favourite (fav), second favourite (2fav) or outsider (dog), with laydraw and backdraw included (the draw obviously being favourite, 2nd favourite or the dog)."
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megarain
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Round 3 at the Oval, on Thursday.

Draw had been drifting, and some support for SA .. they look a better team, with Rabada for Olifeer. Watched Amla score his 311, last time round, (was it really 5 yrs ago - and the Stain remover, did the rest).

Current prices

Eng 2.24

SA 2.94

Draw 4.6

2 draws from 10, in last 10 yrs, but, generally, these games are won by a long way/morning of 5th day.

Games I have watched at Oval this yr, have generally seen good starts for batters, only for them to collapse. So, hope draw goes shorter etc, and would then get involved. No real position yet.
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SA at nearly 3 seems dumb as they are clearly a better team than England atm. Saying that it could all change at the toss, not sure of weather yet either although it does seems to be set fair. Oval is usually a decent batting pitch although test matches on it usually come at the end of August, will that make a difference.
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megarain
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Eve of the test .. Eng likely to include, 2 or maybe 3 debutants.

Pitch likely to be a 'road' (early on), maybe .... Eng may incude 2 spinners

Eng 2.24

SA 3.1

Draw 4.0

Some showers (maybe), in the afternoon tomorrow. I have a v big position. It will be interesting to see, how the mkt reacts, to the Toss /Team news.
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