Lost a tick on the draw, the momentum was incredible, what's the reasoning behind it if you don't mind me asking?
Today's Cricket
Kai wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:30 amLost a tick on the draw, the momentum was incredible, what's the reasoning behind it if you don't mind me asking?
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Just the bad light and forecasts for more of it so they can't get back on the field and the 1st innings of 4 has still not been completed so running out of time. No way could I foresee draw at levels it is right now, I could have been stranded too #DodgedBullet
Makes sense, thanks. The market is even more ridiculous than I thoughtEmmson wrote: ↑Sat Aug 15, 2020 11:58 amJust the bad light and forecasts for more of it so they can't get back on the field and the 1st innings of 4 has still not been completed so running out of time. No way could I foresee draw at levels it is right now, I could have been stranded too #DodgedBullet
Found it incredibly difficult to just sit and watch England drift from 3.50 to 20 without getting involved, wasn't sure about the context.
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wearthefoxhat
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Update 30 minutes ago...
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firlandsfarm
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Hi Kai, the thing about what is called First Class cricket (Test and County games) is the 'play' is slightly different to most other games of any sport. In most other games winning is all about scoring more than the opponent but First Class cricket is more than that … it's about scoring more AND leaving enough time to bowl your opponent out twice. In cricket there is no point in domineering the game so much that you score 1,000 runs in 4 days and then leave yourself just 1 day to bowl the opposition out twice!
Thanks for clearing that up, it's slightly different alright!firlandsfarm wrote: ↑Sun Aug 16, 2020 8:14 amHi Kai, the thing about what is called First Class cricket (Test and County games) is the 'play' is slightly different to most other games of any sport.
Yeah, apologies for the noob cricket questions above, obviously need to brush up on the structure of the sport itself and won't bother the forum with those, but I was just looking at the structure of the market from a trading perspective and it just seems like the perfect market to trade, regarding the number of quality opportunities and scale etc. The weather mechanic that is thrown into the mix and can act as a time decay mechanic is certainly unique compared to other sports.
You could have your hands full even without going inplay or scalping like Emmson is executing with 1 tick offset. Very exciting market to say the least, not surprised to see some of the biggest traders around like megarain specializing it!
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firlandsfarm
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It's maybe the biggest forgotten market!
It's still possible to lay 1.03 for England to score 375 runs in their 1st Inns - they are currently 332-4
However, Buttler is only 13 short of his century and bad weather is forecast for Monday & Tuesday
I reckon there's a chance England will declare early, so 1.03 is worth a little dabble to lay
However, Buttler is only 13 short of his century and bad weather is forecast for Monday & Tuesday
I reckon there's a chance England will declare early, so 1.03 is worth a little dabble to lay
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firlandsfarm
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Slow start by England or is it Pakistan's tactic to stop them from scoring?
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abgespaced
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Hi all,
I'm new. I did my bank on the last test due to the draw. Looking to get my confidence back.
Anyway, draw hit 2.0 last night (while I was in bed). I am still dumbfounded by why it got so low. It was priced as if England were going to bat to 2000 and Pakistan never have a first innings. This was obviously corrected very shortly after, spiking to 4.5.
What I want to know is, how do you manage this rediculous overselling? Knowing that the weather looks good for at least 4 days (not great, just better than last test) and facing a draw at odds of 2.5. Laying at 2.5, watching it plummet to 2. Do you double down at that stage? This is how i wiped out my bank last time.
Right now the draw still looks like good value at 4.0. Unless Pakistan put up a good first innings total (highly unlikely looking at their odds of 580) they'll possibly follow on and it will be all over before the last day, which is when the forecast says there is the most chance of rain.
I guess the risk is that the game lasts to the final day and then gets rained out. How do you manage this risk? I feel like there will be opportunities in the next 2-3 days to get the draw at lower than 4, but any further wickets will only spike it and bad weather will be the only chance for it to come back down.
I'm new. I did my bank on the last test due to the draw. Looking to get my confidence back.
Anyway, draw hit 2.0 last night (while I was in bed). I am still dumbfounded by why it got so low. It was priced as if England were going to bat to 2000 and Pakistan never have a first innings. This was obviously corrected very shortly after, spiking to 4.5.
What I want to know is, how do you manage this rediculous overselling? Knowing that the weather looks good for at least 4 days (not great, just better than last test) and facing a draw at odds of 2.5. Laying at 2.5, watching it plummet to 2. Do you double down at that stage? This is how i wiped out my bank last time.
Right now the draw still looks like good value at 4.0. Unless Pakistan put up a good first innings total (highly unlikely looking at their odds of 580) they'll possibly follow on and it will be all over before the last day, which is when the forecast says there is the most chance of rain.
I guess the risk is that the game lasts to the final day and then gets rained out. How do you manage this risk? I feel like there will be opportunities in the next 2-3 days to get the draw at lower than 4, but any further wickets will only spike it and bad weather will be the only chance for it to come back down.
Market will react to hourly weather forecast updates and there are manipulators out there with huge banks driving the price up and down sometimes, also often around 11.00pm the trading ladder starts to thin out of orders as people in UK head to sleep & this encourages some bizarre moves during the small hours. This will likely happen tonight with Eng & Draw prices so close together It can be maddening/frustrating/wonderfulabgespaced wrote: ↑Sun Aug 23, 2020 2:35 amHi all,
I'm new. I did my bank on the last test due to the draw. Looking to get my confidence back.
Anyway, draw hit 2.0 last night (while I was in bed). I am still dumbfounded by why it got so low. It was priced as if England were going to bat to 2000 and Pakistan never have a first innings. This was obviously corrected very shortly after, spiking to 4.5.
What I want to know is, how do you manage this rediculous overselling? Knowing that the weather looks good for at least 4 days (not great, just better than last test) and facing a draw at odds of 2.5. Laying at 2.5, watching it plummet to 2. Do you double down at that stage? This is how i wiped out my bank last time.
Right now the draw still looks like good value at 4.0. Unless Pakistan put up a good first innings total (highly unlikely looking at their odds of 580) they'll possibly follow on and it will be all over before the last day, which is when the forecast says there is the most chance of rain.
I guess the risk is that the game lasts to the final day and then gets rained out. How do you manage this risk? I feel like there will be opportunities in the next 2-3 days to get the draw at lower than 4, but any further wickets will only spike it and bad weather will be the only chance for it to come back down.
and human beings have to sleep and its always worry what you are going to wake up to if you have open positions. Anyways much of what you mention has been borne out on this 3rd test and you maybe have a good position. This has been a very tricky game to trade for sure, I'll be very careful from here.
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abgespaced
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Nope, I f***ed up again. Laid the draw at 4 prior to Azhar Ali's freak score not out to England's disappointing bowling. I went to bed after it dropped to 2.78 and lucky I did because it went to 1.48 while i was asleep. If I was awake then I would have freaked out. I woke up in the middle of the night because I couldn't sleep I was too stressed about it, to see Pakistan still batting
Even after they were bowled out draw odds stayed at around 2, where I got out. I am sitting at: Draw -$800 England -$650 Pakistan -$650. All red.
I am really struggling. I don't know what it is, but it feels like everything goes the opposite direction the second I get into the market. To date I have never been in the green after trading the draw. People go on about how the draw is almost always overbacked, and that you would be going against the probabilities if you backed it, but I tell you a be rolling in greens if I had backed instead of laid these last 2 test matches.
I thought this test would at least behave a little differently to the last one. We have had 3 solid days of play, a follow on on Day 3, with 2 days left to bowl out a single side. It's just doing my head in!!! How can the draw be at sub 2.0 right now? Doesn't seem right, and yet I've been burned every time I take it on.