Trading Cricket

T20, IPL, Test matches or the Ashes, discuss it here.
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Niko
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I know how to play cricket but have absolutely no idea what to look out for while trading it!! Can anybody point me to relevant reading or YouTube videos so I can start to develop my understanding please?
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megarain
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I think u will struggle to find any material.

On Youtube, there are many videos, but, they are all in a foreign language, trying to get people to open accounts, so, have no idea what good they are, or if they are even relevant.

The mkts trade like anything else .. u have to try find value, etc.

I feel looking at history maybe has some use .. e.g. The first Ashes test at the Gabba (Brisbane), starts in 2 days. 29 tests, and almost 30 yrs, since Aus lost a game there.

Maybe Eng at 4.0, are under-priced etc ..
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harsh
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megarain wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:59 pm


On Youtube, there are many videos, but, they are all in a foreign language, trying to get people to open accounts, so, have no idea what good they are, or if they are even relevant.

As i can understand that language in those videos, they are not worth.

@Niko. once megarain showed me a cruchyfrog figures. it turned out instant push for me.
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Niko
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Sorry, crunchyfrog figures???
Emmson
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Niko wrote:
Mon Nov 20, 2017 9:26 pm
Sorry, crunchyfrog figures???
Go to Betfair Forum Cricket and there you will find. Laying Draw has been profitable, mind you we have just had 2 in a row.

Aus undefeated at the Gabba in 40 years but Pakistan came close to turning them over last year.
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megarain
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Am up in the wee hrs, as preparation for the Ashes games, that start in 2 days .. who says, this game is easy.

So, anyway, I can write a bit - and have a bit of a rant, which suits my current temper, as I am off-colour.

Cricket trading is a big subject .. as it has 3 components.

T20 - pretty volatile stuff, but, mkts are v accurate, when they have high liquidity

50 over games - less volatile, and maybe less accurate

Tests - 5 day events, which, if u have the patience, shud e easy to make money off.

I am gonna concentrate on Tests.

We know from the crunchfrog figs .. let me get current ones :

crunch2017nov.jpg

That the a draw lay, is a decent starting point, to any strat.

If we get the data from the 5 days of trading a test, there may be spots, which increase this return - or, are able to trade, the return higher.

I have wanted to produce an shared automation file from this strat for at least 2 yrs, but, its been prevented, due to the fact that its currently impossible to store, what price the last trade was matched at, and action a reverse trade, from that.

One day, I am sure there will be an update, which allows this function .. and the BAF will follow. (It may take me a mth to produce one that works, cos, coding is a v weak area .. but, am sure if we all join in, it will be cracked).

Now, u may ask, why would I want to produce an open strat, which makes money ? Its my belief, the mkt is so deep, it wont make a difference .. and I am fairly hopeful, more positives will accrue, than negatives.
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megarain
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Another set of stats https://twitter.com/FrogCrunchy are the ICC standings :
iccnov2017jpg.jpg
These stats, may also be a worthy starting point, for some strats.
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megarain
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And finally :

Data collection is a mind-numbing excercise, but, if u want a place to start a strat, it has to be the right place.

Once u have a guideline, then maybe over the duration of the contest, u can trade your way, to a better position (automated).

This has to be done sensibly. U wouldnt want to do it, in lumps, as courtsiders would gain too much, but, micro-trading/scalping, should be v doable // (so long as u can store, what price u last traded at).

I hope u are seeing a theme here.
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Niko
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Many thanks Megarain, that is an excellent start, looking forward to the ashes now!
iambic_pentameter
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Megarain,

Thanks for taking the time to share these details - especially in the early hours.

Without asking you to reveal your secrets, are there any pointers you could give about price movements?

For example, if you layed the draw as per Crunchfrog's stats, what sort of price increase could you see over, say, a morning or afternoon's session - just thinking based on your comments about micro-trading.

Iambic
Emmson
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I don't do what Megarain does, that sounds too analytical for me and I'm not that way inclined. I use my cricket reading skills and drip my way into a position and then try & drip my way out.

Like I have just done on the Women's Ashes T20 RIGHT NOW!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X1VjGQgMOkU

Eng are about to begin the chase and I don't think they have any chance at all.
Emmson
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Eng are about to begin the chase and I don't think they have any chance at all
Getting It Wrong!

They have flipped the market from 1.01 Aus and are on course to win. I never placed another bet after that vid.
mcfc1981
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Best advice I can give you is learn the value of each batsman wicket and how a 4 and 6 will effect the market at each point in the game.
mcfc1981
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good example is now in the t20 game....
current odds 1.65
Gayle out odds will go to about 1.35
Mituhn out odds 1.5
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