The Ashes - August/September 2019

[Archangel]

Fairly solid lead of 90 runs for England at the end of their innings

1.50 looks good to me

[greenmark]

Got him! Get in!

[greenmark]

Bancroft gone. Well done Ali!!

[Euler]

Best Ashes tweet so far: -

https://twitter.com/AndyHa_/status/1157287700405346304

[ThePieThrower]

Australia haven’t won an away Ashes series since 2001 and start at Edgbaston where they haven’t won in any format since 2001 also, and only won 5 of their last 17 away tests. 8 of the 9 Ashes series have been won by the home side.

When you see stats like that, what's your natural inclination? To follow trends, or to oppose them? I don't follow cricket so I don't know how the 2019 teams compare to previous years but elsewhere streaks often mean an unjustified expectation that a streak will continue, leading to mispricings.

Are you thinking 9/10 home side wins or 8/10 would be expected?

Not trying to put these stats down in anyway as they are interesting in their own right but personally it would not play a part in any decision I make

[JTEDL]

Draw price steaming in now.

[Archangel]

England being batted out of the game at the moment. Surpised they were favs for so long

[Berts Certs]

England being batted out of the game at the moment. Surpised they were favs for so long

That is the beauty of cricket markets on Betfair, they offer so much value.

[greenmark]

Credit to Smith. Brilliant performance. Puzzled why Aus are 1.89 to win. Surely England will dig in for a draw?

[PunterLog]

Credit to Smith. Brilliant performance. Puzzled why Aus are 1.89 to win. Surely England will dig in for a draw?

I can't see England surviving for 100 overs. Too much of an ask on the final day of a test match.

[firlandsfarm]

So just over 325 ahead with 3 wickets left … maybe go for 350 and declare with about an hour at England tonight. If that leaves England looking for 300 on the 5th day then the stats will say "forget it" … scoring 300 on the 5th day of a test match to win it is a landmark that has been near impossible in the past. If anyone has the stats maybe they could share them, the only one I'm aware of was Australia beating England by 7 wickets at Headingley 1948. They actually needed 404 after England carried on batting in the morning thinking they had played Australia out of the game! https://www.espncricinfo.com/series/175 ... gland-1948

Way before my time but that must have been one hell of a game

[Archangel]

Draw currently approaching evens

Not sure how likely it is that England can grind it out a draw

[Berts Certs]

Draw currently approaching evens

Not sure how likely it is that England can grind it out a draw

Lyon looks a real danger to me, not sure he will get much help from the quicks though.

[Emmson]

On all known evidence Aus will win tomorrow but it pays not to make too many assumptions.

[greenmark]

On all known evidence Aus will win tomorrow but it pays not to make too many assumptions.

What evidence? Just curious.