Anyone interested or planning a late shift tonight?
I think England could be good value at 3.25
The Ashes
I'm planning to stay awake at least for the first session. There's expected to be some cloud cover so some lateral movement is expected which may be England's advantage. Though I wouldn't be forming an opionion without watching at least half an hours of play. Australia are vulenerable at the moment but Brisbane is a tough place for any tourists so I would be proceeding with caution. War of the words is now over & let the battle commence.
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CaerMyrddin
- Posts: 1271
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 10:47 am
I hope you all get better.Classic winter flu spreading through the family so an early night for me unfortunately. Good luck tonight. May point a spreadsheet at it to review in the morning.
1.40 for the draw (just shot to 1.45) in Brisbane doesn't makes any sense right now for a couple of reasons.
1. England's avg score in Brisbane isn't over 300 runs.
2. They were all out in 76.5 overs in first innings whilst Australia played for 158.4 overs. So i'm assuming they'll be able to stay with the bat for 120-130 odd overs(leaving Aus with 50-60 overs in second innings. And with roughly 3 runs per over verage in tests. They should be able to score 400 odd runs. That would mean Aus will have to chase 200 odd runs in second innings in already meantioned 50-60 overs.
And i'm being more than just hopeful of england's performance with above assumptions.
Now the point is that even if things work out that nice for England, Aus will just need 200 from 50-60 overs.. and with 1.40 for that there is a disconnect.
Ideally it should be around 1.18-1.20 range (came off experience)
I think it's time to Lay Australia!
Plese do advise if i'm missing out on something
X+
1. England's avg score in Brisbane isn't over 300 runs.
2. They were all out in 76.5 overs in first innings whilst Australia played for 158.4 overs. So i'm assuming they'll be able to stay with the bat for 120-130 odd overs(leaving Aus with 50-60 overs in second innings. And with roughly 3 runs per over verage in tests. They should be able to score 400 odd runs. That would mean Aus will have to chase 200 odd runs in second innings in already meantioned 50-60 overs.
And i'm being more than just hopeful of england's performance with above assumptions.
Now the point is that even if things work out that nice for England, Aus will just need 200 from 50-60 overs.. and with 1.40 for that there is a disconnect.
Ideally it should be around 1.18-1.20 range (came off experience)
I think it's time to Lay Australia!
Plese do advise if i'm missing out on something
X+
Smacky it's 1.46 for Australia to win, 3.55 for draw & 24 for England win. Australia leading by 202 runs and assuming England bat all day tomorrow & score at 3.3 runs/over then England will have total of 316 & lead of only 90. So Australia win looks the only plausible outcome. So you would back Australia. But there is slight cloud cover & bad light about and if England do bat more than a day then a draw is a slight possibility & hence slight hesitation in the market. I personally think 1.46 for Australia to win is generaous.
See attached for a simple scenario but England will have to bat for about 130 overs to give Aus about 230 to chase at 4.5 runs which might take into draw teritory. Anything less than that will mean Aussie win.
See attached for a simple scenario but England will have to bat for about 130 overs to give Aus about 230 to chase at 4.5 runs which might take into draw teritory. Anything less than that will mean Aussie win.
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npatel999 wrote:Smacky it's 1.46 for Australia to win, 3.55 for draw & 24 for England win. Australia leading by 202 runs and assuming England bat all day tomorrow & score at 3.3 runs/over then England will have total of 316 & lead of only 90. So Australia win looks the only plausible outcome. So you would back Australia. But there is slight cloud cover & bad light about and if England do bat more than a day then a draw is a slight possibility & hence slight hesitation in the market. I personally think 1.46 for Australia to win is generaous.
See attached for a simple scenario but England will have to bat for about 130 overs to give Aus about 230 to chase at 4.5 runs which might take into draw teritory. Anything less than that will mean Aussie win.
Yup, thats generous!
But the question is.. Why bookmakers are making it that generous?
In second test between pak & SA, Pak needed 208 of there 40 overs with 7-8 wichkets in hand (50 actually as umpires can chip in an extra 10 overs on the final day)
But they shook hands just after drinks, with 14-15 overs left to play. Seemingly, they didn't wanted the win
Advised not to win is more like it!
You get the vibes?
btw i'm from subcontinent