Hi Baz4u2
My apologies, good sir, only just seen your post.
Where did I get my system from?
I developed it based upon my horse laying systems but anyone can develop a Dog or any other system based upon my methods.
The thing about horse and dog races is that, essentially, Betfair's markets are perfect in that a dog's/horse's chances of winning are determined by its odds (after the odds have been corrected for the overround).
Given the above, 'invent' a system. It doesn't really matter how/what. For example, you could lay or back all dogs that start from trap 1, dogs whose name begins with the letter A, dogs whose odds are 4/1 etc. Which system you choose insn't important. What is important is that you are consistent.
Once you have a system, record the results of at least 1,000 races.
Now decide whether you will use your system as a backing or as a laying system. Again, it doesn't matter which.
You will find that that the strike rate of the system will rise and fall and your system will have winning and losing periods.
Now use mean reversion to determine future periods when your system will probably win. In this case, place bets. Now, determine future periods when your system will probably lose. In this case, monitor the system but do not place bets.
Mean Reversion will not guarantee success but it should give you enough of an edge to win over the long term.
Note: Mean Reversion can turn a system off for days/weeks or even months. The way to get around this is to have several systems. In this way, if one system is switched off, another may be switched on.
The thing about dogs is that, if you are layng, you have to do a partial trade in order to get close to or even better than SP i.e. you have to lay first and then back (using a smaller stake than that used when laying) at higher odds. If you don't, you won't win because of the high odds. If you can get close to or even beat SP then, long term, you should win.
Hope that this helps.
Psycho
