Greyhound's By Rank

We've gone to the dogs.
Post Reply
spreadbetting
Posts: 3140
Joined: Sun Jan 31, 2010 8:06 pm

Memphis sometimes inhabits a world of his own.

You can download the data back to 2012 from here https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/

I think nigel stuck up some excel webscraper a while back to automate it.
dt888
Posts: 393
Joined: Wed Apr 27, 2011 9:25 pm

He is basically saying if I back a dog in every race tomorrow at odds of 11 with £10 I will be around £1000 up at the end of the day

If only it were that easy!

Just thought I would point it out before sombody with little experience takes it at face value and loses a load of money
User avatar
MemphisFlash
Posts: 2125
Joined: Fri May 16, 2014 10:12 pm
Location: Leicester

You can download the data back to 2012 from here https://promo.betfair.com/betfairsp/prices/

[/quote]

thats a lot of downloading
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

Hi,

Do certain types of races throw up more outsiders winning than the top 2 in the odds ?

Like OR or other grade level ?

Where would I find that information from ?

Cheers,
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

hi all,
I did a little bit of research for greyhounds on the web a while ago, some average figures I came up with are,

The favourite wins 30 - 35% of the time. (dt888 mentioned earlier in this thread the figure is 32%)
The 2nd fav wins 16 -18% of the time ( so I assumed 17% would be a good average)

The 2 outsiders, (5th and 6th favourite) win 5-6% of races.

Therefore.........1st fav, 2nd fav,, 5th, and 6th fav are winning about 54-55% of races.

Therefore, the 3rd and 4th fav must be winning about 45-46% of the races, As these two dogs can usually be backed on betfair at odds greater than 5/1, sometimes even 6 ,7 ,8/1 plus, backing both the 3rd and 4th fav every race should result in a profit, ............so I put a bot together to do just that.

As usual, it didn't work, lost money, back to the drawing board !

Have a nice day! :-)
User avatar
Naffman
Posts: 5626
Joined: Sun Aug 11, 2013 5:46 am

MemphisFlash wrote:
Mon Apr 30, 2018 4:11 pm
it doesnt matter what the odds are, each dog that is entered in the race Statistically has a 1 in 6 chance of winning
Wow thanks for that
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

eatyourgreens wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 10:25 am
hi all,
I did a little bit of research for greyhounds on the web a while ago, some average figures I came up with are,

The favourite wins 30 - 35% of the time. (dt888 mentioned earlier in this thread the figure is 32%)
The 2nd fav wins 16 -18% of the time ( so I assumed 17% would be a good average)

The 2 outsiders, (5th and 6th favourite) win 5-6% of races.

Therefore.........1st fav, 2nd fav,, 5th, and 6th fav are winning about 54-55% of races.

Therefore, the 3rd and 4th fav must be winning about 45-46% of the races, As these two dogs can usually be backed on betfair at odds greater than 5/1, sometimes even 6 ,7 ,8/1 plus, backing both the 3rd and 4th fav every race should result in a profit, ............so I put a bot together to do just that.

As usual, it didn't work, lost money, back to the drawing board !

Have a nice day! :-)
Interesting.

But, again, what would be good is a breakdown by race type. As it could be that favourites win more at Grade 1 or Grade 2 type races but don't do so well at OR or Grade 3 type races etc etc.
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

I found these on the Web.

Interesting results.....
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
User avatar
BetScalper
Posts: 1139
Joined: Sun Jul 02, 2017 10:47 pm

BetScalper wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 11:43 am
I found these on the Web.

Interesting results.....
What stands out is:

Open Races at Romford

- Favourite wins 42.85% of races.
- If the Favourite is in Trap 5 only 22.2% of races
- If the Favourite is in Trap 6 then its 60% of races

Looking at the stats it would make sense to back the favourite if its running in Trap 2, Trap 4 or Trap 6 where the win rate is much higher.

Could be an anomaly ?

Also,

Graded Races

- At Kinsley Favourite wins 25.9% of races
- At Poole Favourite wins 36.5% of races

At Graded Races, Poole has the highest number of favourites winning (36.6%) but if there in Traps 4 and 6 its above 40%
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

I came across that site when I was looking at stats a while back and noticed the points you mentioned, maybe I should spend more time delving deeper but to start removing/nominating trap no's etc. seemed to defeat the object of automation, instead i went for the trial and error method, to try to get a generic bot together to apply to all races, sadly though, resulting in more errors :-(

Ive been running a simple £2 back/lay scalping bot this morn, it can make 5 - 25p a race, I was £5.30 up in the first 90 minutes this morning, then it goes south. ( currently £1 down)

I've had the same (ish) results on most things Ive tried with greyhound scalping, half the races will green up 10 -25p pre start time,...............the other half can be 10 - 40p in red at start time, if this can be left for 30 or so seconds, it quite often comes back to profit and greens up ok, but then risking it that long it can easily go suspended, thats what wiped out my £5.30, a £2 lay bet still in market after race starts...............just cant find the sweet spot !

If I get there I'll let you know, good luck with your stat hunting :-)

have a nice day! :-)
User avatar
napshnap
Posts: 1189
Joined: Thu Jan 12, 2017 6:21 am

eatyourgreens wrote:
Wed May 09, 2018 1:32 pm
I came across that site when I was looking at stats a while back and noticed the points you mentioned, maybe I should spend more time delving deeper but to start removing/nominating trap no's etc. seemed to defeat the object of automation, instead i went for the trial and error method, to try to get a generic bot together to apply to all races, sadly though, resulting in more errors :-(

Ive been running a simple £2 back/lay scalping bot this morn, it can make 5 - 25p a race, I was £5.30 up in the first 90 minutes this morning, then it goes south. ( currently £1 down)

I've had the same (ish) results on most things Ive tried with greyhound scalping, half the races will green up 10 -25p pre start time,...............the other half can be 10 - 40p in red at start time, if this can be left for 30 or so seconds, it quite often comes back to profit and greens up ok, but then risking it that long it can easily go suspended, thats what wiped out my £5.30, a £2 lay bet still in market after race starts...............just cant find the sweet spot !

If I get there I'll let you know, good luck with your stat hunting :-)

have a nice day! :-)
You can set your closing bet to take SP, but remember about sp bet minimum size.
eatyourgreens
Posts: 243
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 12:53 am

hi,
thanx to napschnap for input,

I have tried taking sp using the rule "take sp all unmatched bets" it doesn;t always get filled.

What is the minimum stake size for taking sp? do all greyhound races take sp bets, or is it only available at certain meetings?

Thanx for any help,

Have a nice day! :-)
User avatar
wearthefoxhat
Posts: 3200
Joined: Sun Feb 18, 2018 9:55 am

I used other software a few years ago.

As a member of the forum there were some interesting discussions on laying greyhounds and recovery settings...off the top of my head the biggest thread involved laying 3rd favourites up to a maximum odds of 4.70 in recovery. Micro stakes were used and there were long sequences, months of wins, until the proverbial 5 in a row would occur to wipe out their bankrolls. I believe a member even sold a system on the internet using BBP settings.

Other discussions involved how high some of the outsiders were compared to the actual SP.
eg: 7/2 = 12.00, 5/1 = 20.00...etc

Logically there must be some value there somewhere as they also used to win a fair share of races over time. I would assume some form of selectivity is required long term.

Admittedly I haven't looked at greyhounds for a while as other sports have taken over my interest.
jameshillier36
Posts: 1
Joined: Mon Dec 25, 2017 3:34 pm

Hi ,I’m new to automation and I’m struggling , I’m trying to place a lay bet when the price drifts a certain amount of ticks over a certain amount of time then. Could someone point me in the right direction. Cheers
Post Reply

Return to “Trading Greyhound racing”