Trading Greyhound racing : Seasonality of Greyhound Racing

We've gone to the dogs.
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CallumPerry
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:16 am

As per the title, is there?

In the past, I have read/watched Peter discuss this with regard to horse racing and I understand that this will make a difference to long-term success.
Screen Shot 2020-09-17 at 09.04.05.png


With the horses I understand that I should filter my results based on the type of race and thus my returns will vary based on the time of the year, I'd expect somewhat in relation to these levels...
Screen Shot 2020-09-17 at 09.04.44.png
BUT WHAT ABOUT THE DOGS? I ask because I thought I'd cracked it with a new strategy. Over 3 months I had a very nice rising equity curve and then the first half of this month, there was a noticeable dip! Can anybody please shed some light on possible factors? Any possible filter recommendations?

Is there a known seasonality chart other traders use?
Is there anywhere/anyway/anyone that has the number of races run at each track over the course of 12 months (or multiple years)
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CallumPerry
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:26 am

To illustrate my frustrations...
CaptureEquity.PNG
The numbers are a little small, sorry, but from about market 1-1500 was the first half of June just after the racing has resumed (understandable factor). The rest of June, July and August looks very nice and then the first two weeks of September has resulted in a bit of a dive(???). I have traded around 70% of all races with my filters and each point in the series is a market not just a single selection.

So I feel this is a pretty big sample, 50K+ bets.
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CallumPerry
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 9:56 pm

Capture2.PNG
The amount of races at each venue doesn't appear to be a factor. Nor the % of money placed on each runner in order of favouritism??

I've had a few PM's already, will try and reply now but if anyone has got some long-term information that may help, I would greatly appreciate it. Keep looking at this from different angles and can't see something which i'm sure is super obvious!
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MemphisFlash
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Thu Sep 17, 2020 10:05 pm

Capture.JPG

Can't Say i've noticed anything
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Kai
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Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:16 am

How much volume do the biggest races attract?

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CallumPerry
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Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:09 am

Kai wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:16 am
How much volume do the biggest races attract?
Capture3.PNG
I'm aware this is framed quite wide on a single chart but here ^^. Most of the volume is around that £10K-£20K range with the occasional big spike. Doesn't appear to be any noticeable change from this perspective though. I can't really say 'Oh that's where Sept started' just at a glance.

Also, the money matched on each runner in terms of %'s seems consistent. Again, I can't easily state the start of Sept...
Capture4.PNG
The fav consistently sees around 60%+, 2nd fav around 40%+ and with all runners, it seems like I could draw a straight horizontal line to find the average and Sept doesn't deviate too far from this.

Is the general consensus there is no seasonality like horse racing then? And it is just a type of mean reversion myself and other traders who have PM'd me are experiencing? I'm continuing to capture daily data but nervous to still be involved with real money until I find conclusion that makes sense to me.
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Anbell
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Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:33 am

CallumPerry wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 8:09 am
Kai wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:16 am
How much volume do the biggest races attract?
Capture3.PNG

I'm aware this is framed quite wide on a single chart but here ^^. Most of the volume is around that £10K-£20K range with the occasional big spike. Doesn't appear to be any noticeable change from this perspective though. I can't really say 'Oh that's where Sept started' just at a glance.

Also, the money matched on each runner in terms of %'s seems consistent. Again, I can't easily state the start of Sept...

Capture4.PNG

The fav consistently sees around 60%+, 2nd fav around 40%+ and with all runners, it seems like I could draw a straight horizontal line to find the average and Sept doesn't deviate too far from this.

Is the general consensus there is no seasonality like horse racing then? And it is just a type of mean reversion myself and other traders who have PM'd me are experiencing? I'm continuing to capture daily data but nervous to still be involved with real money until I find conclusion that makes sense to me.
There's much less seasonality than horses.

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CallumPerry
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Fri Sep 18, 2020 9:15 am

Hmmm seems so. I've just broken it up by type of race also. Comparing half of September to the other months in my sample, there were slightly less than average grade A races, a VERY slight increase in Grade D but I think this is skewed by a bump in "HC" and "OR" markets. Conclusion, just unfortunate variance?

My filters are loose enough at the moment that I may be able to smooth out my equity curve with another minimal layer. At the risk of becoming a nuisance, i'll leave this thread here. If anybody has got anything they feel would be useful, my inbox is open! At the very least I hope this thread shows a good way of visualising large samples, might be of use to somebody. I just realised how colourful I have made it with my last few posts :lol:

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Kai
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Fri Sep 18, 2020 12:48 pm

Cheers Callum, not looked at doggos in years. Any volume graphs according to time of day, or over the week by any chance? :)

I remember quite a few decently liquid races in the evenings.

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Euler
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Fri Sep 18, 2020 1:29 pm

I haven't done any work in this area so can't specifically tell if there is a pattern. But most sports to exhibit some seasonality.

Perhaps look at the big races and work your way to towards or away from those races.

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