Hi all,
I tried laying everything below 4/1(3/1) on BF across every card in greyhound racing.The idea was sound but the results were dissapointing.I made a 11.2% loss on turn over .I did try a few filters,one method I employed was only laying dogs at the said price providing they had the worst Last Time Out speed figs.Still made a loss on this although lot fewer selections (8.3%).I decided not to go ahead with any more filters because Greyhound racing seems to be a canine lottery and if price determination cant sort it out then I think it a bit pointless looking at other form factors like speed ,positions and runnings styles etc.Still an interesting exercise and a fair sample of 9 weeks.
Zoot
greyhound prices system
Hi Peterpetemalta1 wrote:try backing them
I Know you were joking, but I have a system that I use every day which originated as an exact opposite strategy.
If you have a system that loses on average; try the inverse and see what happens..worth a try
Regards
Peter
Something you may want to consider is this..........
Often Greyhound tracks are PREPARED prior to racing, this can have a SIGNIFICANT effect on a dogs performance.
As a result of pre race preparation and the weather you can get a significant bias to the days racing, this however will take 3 or 4 races to really show up, at which point the bookmakers will price the market accordingly.
Something that was a 5/1 shot prior to the meeting starting could now be a 5/2 shot after 3 or 4 races simply because the track is running 2, 3 or even more lengths quicker on the inside rather than the outside or vice versa.
So a simple strategy to employ is to take the result of race 1, ie 1 beat 3 & 4 and assume given the result there could be an inside bias on the day, not gaurenteed but possible given the result of the first race, it is amazing how often this works.
Take today as an example.
Sheffield 11.11 - Res 2-6-1 (Assume the inside is the place to be)
Sheffield 11.28 - Res 2-6-4
Sheffield 11.42 - Res 1-3-2
Sheffield 11.57 - Res 1-2-4
4 Winners 100%
8 from 12 66%
Hall Green 11.03 - Res 5-3-6 (Assume 4-5-6)
Hall Green 11.19 - Res 3-4-6
Hall Green 11.34 - Res 3-2-5
Hall Green 11.48 - Res 2-1-5
1 winner 25%
6 from 12 50%
Swindon 2.18 - Res 1-2-3 (Assume 1-2-3)
Swindon 2.37 - Res 3-5-2
Swindon 2.57 - Res 2-1-4
Swindon 3.17 - Res 4-2-1
3 Winners 75%
9 from 12 75%
Monmore 2.08 - Res 4-5-1 (Assume 4-5-6)
Monmore 2.27 - Res 3-4-1
Monmore 2.47 - Res 5-3-4
Monmore 3.07 - Res 1-3-4
2 winners 50%
6 from 12 50%
Yarmouth 6.33 - Res 6-4-2 (Assume 4-5-6)
Yarmouth 6.49 - Res 2-1-3
Yarmouth 7.06 - Res 5-3-2
Yarmouth 7.22 - Res 5-4-3
3 Winners 75%
5 from 12 42%
Nottingham 6.28 - Res 3-4-2 (Assume 1-2-3)
Nottingham 6.48 - Res 3-4-1
Nottingham 7.06 - Res 1-3-4
Nottingham 7.22 - Res 5-2-3
3 Winners 75%
8 from 12 66%
Overall 42 from 72 58% in the first 3
However more significantly.............
16 WINNERS from 24 Races 66%
When you consider this and factor it in to your betting and the prices available on the exchanges on the Greyhounds it can be very advantageous on occasion.
I have as a result of factoring in a possible bias early in a card backed many a double figure winner.
Certainly worth considering as it does'nt matter how good a dog is or what form it has in the book, if the track is significantly slower on the outside against the inside or vice versa they won't win in a clean run race.
Also factor in that a high percentage of dogs (Can't remeber the figure!!) that lead round the first bend win and you can start to form the basis of a system/strategy, such as only backing early paced dogs, who off their sectionals are likely to lead on the part of the track that may have a bias!
Worth looking at.
K
Often Greyhound tracks are PREPARED prior to racing, this can have a SIGNIFICANT effect on a dogs performance.
As a result of pre race preparation and the weather you can get a significant bias to the days racing, this however will take 3 or 4 races to really show up, at which point the bookmakers will price the market accordingly.
Something that was a 5/1 shot prior to the meeting starting could now be a 5/2 shot after 3 or 4 races simply because the track is running 2, 3 or even more lengths quicker on the inside rather than the outside or vice versa.
So a simple strategy to employ is to take the result of race 1, ie 1 beat 3 & 4 and assume given the result there could be an inside bias on the day, not gaurenteed but possible given the result of the first race, it is amazing how often this works.
Take today as an example.
Sheffield 11.11 - Res 2-6-1 (Assume the inside is the place to be)
Sheffield 11.28 - Res 2-6-4
Sheffield 11.42 - Res 1-3-2
Sheffield 11.57 - Res 1-2-4
4 Winners 100%
8 from 12 66%
Hall Green 11.03 - Res 5-3-6 (Assume 4-5-6)
Hall Green 11.19 - Res 3-4-6
Hall Green 11.34 - Res 3-2-5
Hall Green 11.48 - Res 2-1-5
1 winner 25%
6 from 12 50%
Swindon 2.18 - Res 1-2-3 (Assume 1-2-3)
Swindon 2.37 - Res 3-5-2
Swindon 2.57 - Res 2-1-4
Swindon 3.17 - Res 4-2-1
3 Winners 75%
9 from 12 75%
Monmore 2.08 - Res 4-5-1 (Assume 4-5-6)
Monmore 2.27 - Res 3-4-1
Monmore 2.47 - Res 5-3-4
Monmore 3.07 - Res 1-3-4
2 winners 50%
6 from 12 50%
Yarmouth 6.33 - Res 6-4-2 (Assume 4-5-6)
Yarmouth 6.49 - Res 2-1-3
Yarmouth 7.06 - Res 5-3-2
Yarmouth 7.22 - Res 5-4-3
3 Winners 75%
5 from 12 42%
Nottingham 6.28 - Res 3-4-2 (Assume 1-2-3)
Nottingham 6.48 - Res 3-4-1
Nottingham 7.06 - Res 1-3-4
Nottingham 7.22 - Res 5-2-3
3 Winners 75%
8 from 12 66%
Overall 42 from 72 58% in the first 3
However more significantly.............
16 WINNERS from 24 Races 66%
When you consider this and factor it in to your betting and the prices available on the exchanges on the Greyhounds it can be very advantageous on occasion.
I have as a result of factoring in a possible bias early in a card backed many a double figure winner.
Certainly worth considering as it does'nt matter how good a dog is or what form it has in the book, if the track is significantly slower on the outside against the inside or vice versa they won't win in a clean run race.
Also factor in that a high percentage of dogs (Can't remeber the figure!!) that lead round the first bend win and you can start to form the basis of a system/strategy, such as only backing early paced dogs, who off their sectionals are likely to lead on the part of the track that may have a bias!
Worth looking at.
K