I have done very little trading of late as I have not been feeling too well. I've just had news that my appointment for some serious treatment has been cancelled. The consultant is ill, how ironic is that!
Well I was watching the France v England rugby match and had not intended to trade it. When I saw the first two tries I realised it was worth laying France. They had two lucky bounces which resulted in tries. I appreciate you have to take your chances, it doesn't alter the fact they had not played well enough to be 1.20 in the market. I placed two lays at 1.19/1.20 and waited for the market to change. France were blowing and England were banging on the door. The Mike Brown try changed everything and I was suddenly looking at a very healthy profit.
Well my son was sat with me and he was curious about what I had done. I explained that even if England flopped, I could still exit for a small ~10% loss but if the game went as expected then I could make a huge return. He looked at me a bit perplexed, he's autistic and 17 years old, I could almost see the cogs turning in his brain. Oh yes, I see what you mean! So that's why we rarely go racing Dad, you can make more money sat at home! I traded out and told him why. Then France grabbed a late try and he looked at me and nodded!
I often find markets overreact to goals, tries, wickets and present great opportunities with very little risk.