Other markets : college basketball

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roger speakout
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:35 pm

Mon Apr 03, 2017 11:07 pm

ncaa finals : north carolina vs gonzaca final

how big is this market going to be? the turnover was 15 000 , but there is four hours before the start.

i think it will be a close market. i am planning to scalp at the start, with offsets and stops. But i am planning to stop before the first quarter or there is a blow out situation.

i am looking for droughts and runs for directional plays.

looking forward to this game.

no nba games arelive on bt ,

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Posts: 3828
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Tue Apr 04, 2017 1:05 am

These days when people say 'scalp' do they still mean what it always used to be? ie just a tick or two. From my experience the moves are much stronger even on a point by point basis, I don't ever recall seeing it move any move of just a couple of ticks. Maybe very early on and with one dominant team, but certainly not where the teams start close. I'm just starting to put some data together to model basketball, it's a wierd cross between tennis and football from what I can see so far. Fouls, especially 3 pointers trade very much like a tennis break opportunity, overall it trades like a football match that ends 102-98 ! It's pretty volatile stuff but there is a suprising amount of money floating around. It's not top of my todo list, but it's made it as far as the list. I'd be interested to hear how you get in with it.

roger speakout
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:35 pm

Tue Apr 04, 2017 8:27 pm

It traded well, for a college game. My bias was to lay Nort carolina in the first half , I wiped my profits from the early trade a few times. I layed cgonzaga when the price got out of hand and was able to catch a early second half run by North Carolina. But I left the markets early in the second half.

Trading late in the fourth quarter is to volatile. I normally finish at the third quarter or when i see a blowout.

My simple model is 20 point lead the price ie 1.03

a 10 point lead is 1.20 . can you even play it bucke by bucket like tennis. there are many similarities between tennis and basketball.

Droughts are like breaks of serve, The prices runs up.

You can look for when the stars are off the court, the strengstay away from laying ths of the bench might chnge the game.

with 3 point shots, I stay away rom laying Golden states, they can score points quickly. Look at the San Antonio game, last week ,they started with a thirty point deficit, but can back by half time, to finish the game with a blow out.

If get a game where the starting price is 1.6 in favour. But the team does not take the lead, by half time . In the third quarter you can forget the starting price.

There must be a model out there but you must use offsets and stop losses.

Another good time to go for a scalps at the free throw line. Use player stats to predict how many shots they will score.

The problm is they play so late, especially west coast games.

I think the best matches are those that the score is equal through out the game. Blowouts kill the market.

Another stats to look at is how quickly the team starts, whn I first started looking at those markets I wanted to scalp going into inplay. But it is risky because one team can start slow,.

I now look to lay a slow starting team with offsets and stops. The margins for off setting are normally wide. a team can start as 1.6 favourite but every time the scores are equal the price is 1.8 .

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Posts: 3828
Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am

Tue Apr 04, 2017 9:28 pm

Wow thanks for all that, you clearly know a lot more about it than I do.
The lateness of the games are what drew me to in the first place, I usually sleep from 5/6 till 11/12 so the US stuff is on at a great time for me.

Where do you watch it live? I'm just using the tiny delayed BF streaming pictures atm and you can hardly see the scores or who is who, and there's plenty of entertainment where a clearer picture would be a distinct advantage ;)

roger speakout
Posts: 27
Joined: Tue Jan 31, 2017 11:35 pm

Wed Apr 05, 2017 12:29 am

i watch it on bt sports.

try reddit for streaming. I tried to give you a link.

looking forward to milwakee bucks @ okhlohoma thunders.

okc are starting at 1.46 .

it will be ggood to watch if milwakee goes to a five point lead. Russsell Westbrook is going to for the mvp and the average treble double.

OKC has on two scores Kanter and Westbrook, what happens whem westbrook goes to the bench. But Westbrook should win this game , their record is 31 wins to 7 losess when he gats at treble double.

Milwaukee is a young team, but they have a potential superstar.

Western conference teams are stronger that Eastern conference teams.

OKC have declined from being in the top 3 of the western conference last year, when Kevin Durant was there. They were a finalist a few years ago, but the had the best roster, James Harden, Westbrook, Durant, Ibaka, Reggie Jackson.

But now they are a one superstar team.

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