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Shamrock
Posts: 197
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:41 am
Location: Perth Wester Australia

Thu Jun 08, 2017 7:09 am

A bit late starting the thread this year.
And what a year it has been. Richmond are every traders favourite, managing to blow a couple of unlosable games back to back, and trading at 1.01 while doing it. The toughest year I can remember and this has left open some great trading opportunities.
Tonight’s game, Sydney v Bulldogs, Grand Final rematch (again), and this should lob up some good trading. The weather in Sydney is terrible, rain, rain and more rain. An 8 or 10-point lead in the final quarter will look like gold.
The stats say it should be the dogs, the bookies say it should be Sydney. Ladbrokes had Sydney at 1.80 and -3.5 this morning, now at 1.70 and -6.5, this is all on the back of “Jack is Back” and “No more Tippett”.
So, a wet game tonight and it should be close – again. Even with the rain the under/over at 152.5 is a bit low.
Best trading game of the round could be Essendon v Port, I think Essendon are way overpriced, will be laying Port.
As for the rest
Adelaide at home are too strong
Hawks coming off the bye (1.64), this will be very close.
Freo (1.37) going to Brisbane, well worth the lay to start the trading.
GWS (1.2) v Carlton, they may have to travel but this should be easy.
Melb (1.57) v Collingwood, if only Collingwood could kick straight, stick with Melbourne.
Good trading.

gazuty
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Sat Jun 10, 2017 1:13 am

Good to see you back shamrock.

It's been a great year for lay to back the favourite. And it takes a long time for people to change their view on teams. Free kick Hawthorn.

There are some very interesting stats on teams coming off the bye playing a team that did not come off the bye.

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Shamrock
Posts: 197
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:41 am
Location: Perth Wester Australia

Sat Jun 10, 2017 4:22 am

Two huge drifts, Hawks were 1.64, now pick your price as Gold Coast hit 1.80 Fav.
Freo started at 1.37, now 1.7.

Port are still getting money, in from 1.45 to 1.28. The 1.45 was way too short, crazy money, take away the first quarter last week and they lose, Essendon +26.5 has to be good.

gazuty
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Sat Jun 10, 2017 7:49 am

Hope you layed Freo. 1.37 was ridiculous. Now out over 2.

gazuty
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Sat Jun 10, 2017 10:42 am

Great call Shamrock on Port. Laid both at 1.56. All green now.

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Shamrock
Posts: 197
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:41 am
Location: Perth Wester Australia

Tue Jun 13, 2017 1:30 pm

Great week last week, GWS losing and no one wanting to belive it, behind all day but favourites all day. Why?
Monday was a classic, a blind man and his dog could have traded a winning position using the new brail version of Betangel. 7 lead changes in the first quarter and close to as many in the last.
Another early start to the week with a Thursday night game.
Geelong travel to West Coast, always a hard task to take on the Eagles at home, but it is a wounded eagle, no goal kicker. A couple of bookies offering 1.82 for Geelong, I'm happy to jump on this early, I have them at 1.65 to 1.7.
North Melb v St Kilda, a brave call either way. Norths if I had to pick.
Richmond v Sydney, You just know the money will say Sydney and the stats Richmond. Wait for the teams to be announced.
Port Adelaide v Brisbane, Port but too short. (1.04)
Last two are real interesting, Gold Coast v Carlton, 3.45 for Carlton looks the value of the round. I know they have to travel but that is over the odds by about a full point, I would have thought 2.8 was value.
Bulldogs v Melbourne, it seems the dogs are getting found out. Melbourne are at 2.60 and the dogs at 1.50, I'm happy to lay the dogs, they have to drift. The under/over is at 170.5 and the game is at Etihad, so no weather worries, looks very low (186.5).

gazuty
Posts: 1038
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Fri Jun 23, 2017 1:28 pm

Essendon went through 1.01 and that was turned over. :shock:

Great result.

And Hawthorn last night.

It's fair dinkum unbelievable.

I might change my name to "Layer Cake".

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