In my ongoing quest to "think like a trader" I thought it might be worth while noting some observations on this race as it progress's and hopefully others will join in with some constructive criticism....
So whats the opportunity?
- It's a very long race, lasting 3 weeks & extremely physically demanding
- The favourite is very dependent on factors that are outwith his control including: illness, team strength / support, crashes
- One mistake (misses an important break, burns out on a climb, cycles into a bollard or stationary police motor cycle!) could see a significant change in price
- The favourite is now odds on (Froome at 1.92ish this morning)
==> so there is an opportunity to lay the favourite and trade out over the next couple of weeks in the expectation that price will go up at some point?
==> and down side is that Froome continues to beat market expectations and/or his rivals drop off one by one?
However
- the market is quite weak
- no obvious challenger to Froome
- wouldn't be surprised if the price comes in further if he continues to consolidate his position during the sprint stages like today which has a 2km straight run in for the sprinters
==> So maybe best to hold off today & hope price comes in further?
Thoughts?
Tour de France 2107
- ruthlessimon
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Well Sky certainly performed better than most anticipated
I'm trying too see where the competition comes from. Quintana's tour is already up the creak, with his key domestique out. & Porte, meh, like he said his interview "petrified" of coming off the bike yesterday. Can a GT contender really afford to think like that? You need to take big risks to win the big races. Pro cycling, the most dangerous sport in the world!
I'm trying too see where the competition comes from. Quintana's tour is already up the creak, with his key domestique out. & Porte, meh, like he said his interview "petrified" of coming off the bike yesterday. Can a GT contender really afford to think like that? You need to take big risks to win the big races. Pro cycling, the most dangerous sport in the world!
- ruthlessimon
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Fair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine
I do love his he finishing antics, most memorable for me was a few years ago when he wheeled the last 50m over the line to win a mountain top finishruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:17 pmFair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine
- ruthlessimon
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And in a more shy & retiring mode: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UYUZIW0kEPM
Ironic that i posted that just 24hrs previous - for many this will now become his most memorable finish just not for the right reasonsDallas wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 9:30 pmI do love his he finishing antics, most memorable for me was a few years ago when he wheeled the last 50m over the line to win a mountain top finishruthlessimon wrote: ↑Mon Jul 03, 2017 6:17 pmFair play to Sagan, unclip @1000W+ & still win! handling machine
- ruthlessimon
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Clearly Kittel!
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Looking forward to the rerun once Sagan wins his appeal with arbitration for sports )
- CLOWNSHOES
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does anyone have any good reading material or videos regarding trading cycling ?
TBH ive never even considered it.
TBH ive never even considered it.
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Not seen any reading material but think the opportunity will be found somewhere in the favourite (at short odds) making a mistake and/or one of the contenders doing far better than expected during a particular stage. So likely to happen during a mountain stage (if froome burns out) or an a flat stage if he gets caught up in another accident. It was just few years ago that froome cycled into a bollard whilst looking at his power meter - end of race for him...
By stage 2 there was two retirals: one due to smashed kneecap, the other fractured vertebrae and a large chunk of skin missing from froomes bum due to crash incidents...
Should get a good idea today of his form in the mountains )
By stage 2 there was two retirals: one due to smashed kneecap, the other fractured vertebrae and a large chunk of skin missing from froomes bum due to crash incidents...
Should get a good idea today of his form in the mountains )
- ruthlessimon
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So annoyed I missed this. Riche in a big crash, big opportunity missed
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- ruthlessimon
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Awesome finish to that race! Glad to see the Frenchie lose out bet he thought he had it easy!! Although, a big move on his price. The descents certainly provide some great opportunities!
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