beating the bookies using data science

Any markets not covered in the other boards
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marksmeets302
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Joined: Thu Dec 10, 2009 4:37 pm

People find an edge betting on american football, accounts get limited:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6091 ... ookmakers/
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Dallas
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Location: Working From Home

Interesting read thanks for posting that
LinusP
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Saw this on hacker news, you can see the latest opportunities here:

http://128.199.65.226

https://github.com/Lisandro79/BeatTheBookie
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Euler
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marksmeets302 wrote:
Sun Oct 22, 2017 3:06 pm
People find an edge betting on american football, accounts get limited:

https://www.technologyreview.com/s/6091 ... ookmakers/
Somewhat amusing they would do all that work without realising it was useless if you couldn't get on.
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Euler
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LinusP wrote:
Sun Oct 22, 2017 7:27 pm
Saw this on hacker news, you can see the latest opportunities here:

http://128.199.65.226

https://github.com/Lisandro79/BeatTheBookie
Love it and love this forum for sharing and pointing out these things.
welshboy06
Posts: 165
Joined: Wed Mar 01, 2017 2:06 pm

I used to be part of a horse racing system similar to the above. It was really quite profitable but a nightmare having to source new bookies accounts and managing your bank. It was quite amazing to see some bookies restricting after 2 or 3 bets!

I may not be making any money on the exchange yet, but one of the big things that drew me in was the lack of restrictions.
stueytrader
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Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm

Goes to show how it isn't finding value/edge that can be problematic in betting/trading - but instead having the possible mechanisms to maintain it all.
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aperson
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article on this in this weeks new scientist.
stueytrader
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As said above, rather pointless 'science' if there isn't the chance to actually place the bets! :|
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EyePeaSea
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aperson wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:30 pm
article on this in this weeks new scientist.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/21 ... inst-them/


I haven't read the NS for years, but I remember the quality of the writing was better.
For example:
NewScientist wrote:Mean odds of 2 to 1 suggest the bookies collectively think this reflects fair odds for that outcome.
IMO - that quote from the article is tosh. Odds of 2 to 1 mean that the bookies want to discourage bets to balance their book, as much as (or more than) the fact that they think the horse actually has a 2 to 1 chance of winning.

No?
benjamin28
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Joined: Sun Apr 28, 2019 8:13 pm

Hello there,

Mathematicians had already developed bookie-beating models that attempt to predict the outcome of sports matches, but they are difficult to devise and don’t always perform consistently. Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and his colleagues wanted to know if a more direct approach would work: using the bookmakers’ own odds against them.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Funnily enough...

There is a few online tipping/system sites that are so highly over bet that if you bet opposite to what they advice you can make a profit.

I would argue that the majority of all horses in the top 3 betting of a racing market are way over bet and in a lot of circumstances just betting every other runner in the race at sp is profitable.

Picking winners is pointless, it really is.
It is all about price, and some never, ever grasp that.
Backing a horse at 2/1 when it has an sp of Evens can still be a very bad bet too. And a lot of the times 2/1 is still very poor value.

Price, price, price and nothing else will make you profitable betting on sports.
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Naffman
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People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that, which I suppose leads people on to backing shorter priced runners (lower variance and higher SR)
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SeaHorseRacing
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:59 am
People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that, which I suppose leads people on to backing shorter priced runners (lower variance and higher SR)
I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

The only way you can profit long term is through value and watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.

When in reality you just want to take a value price above the events actually chances of happening.
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