beating the bookies using data science

[ShaunWhite]

People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that

I think that depends on your 'system', elapsed time isn't as significant as sample size. If you have a system which trades half a dozen horses in every race, then I'd expect it to be profitable almost daily and a week without profit would probably see it consigned to the bin. eg. in the last 5 days one of my 'systems' which operates on independant 4 markets, has traded almost 1500 selections, more than enough to prove it's viability. If a system trades 3 horses a day then you'll probably take months to prove anything.

[ShaunWhite]

I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.

The thread is about data science which by definition disregards emotions. And if you're trading situations rather than outcomes, watching or at least having live info is crucial. I haven't got the slightest interest in horses or 95% of any sport, so watching it has no impact whatsoever on my decision making.

If you care about the outcomes then fair enough, but if your emotions impact on your judgement to such an extent that you can't watch it without it being detremental, then the problem isn't the data/pictures/info, it's you.

[Naffman]

People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that

I think that depends on your 'system', elapsed time isn't as significant as sample size. If you have a system which trades half a dozen horses in every race, then I'd expect it to be profitable almost daily and a week without profit would probably see it consigned to the bin. eg. in the last 5 days one of my 'systems' which operates on independant 4 markets, has traded almost 1500 selections, more than enough to prove it's viability. If a system trades 3 horses a day then you'll probably take months to prove anything.

Yes but I believe this topic is about betting and not trading

[stueytrader]

I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.

The thread is about data science which by definition disregards emotions. And if you're trading situations rather than outcomes, watching or at least having live info is crucial. I haven't got the slightest interest in horses or 95% of any sport, so watching it has no impact whatsoever on my decision making.

If you care about the outcomes then fair enough, but if your emotions impact on your judgement to such an extent that you can't watch it without it being detremental, then the problem isn't the data/pictures/info, it's you.

Interesting points about emotions, though perhaps we shouldn't also forget that sometimes markets are 'emotion-based' too. i.e. other punters moving markets based emotionally.

[firlandsfarm]

People expect a system to be profitable every week too

I'm a systems man and one thing I quickly picked up on was that you need a portfolio of systems to smooth the graph. You wouldn't buy just one share, you buy a portfolio … it's no different.

[Archangel]

I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.

Interesting points about emotions, though perhaps we shouldn't also forget that sometimes markets are 'emotion-based' too. i.e. other punters moving markets based emotionally.

Aren't all markets based on emotions in the sense that it's just the opinions of people if what the price 'should ' be.
I guess it also depends on how efficient the market is. There will always be opportunities where there are inefficient prices

[stueytrader]

I suppose it depends also how we define 'emotion', but generally I agree with that point above.

[ShaunWhite]

Dunno where you got that quote above from, I've never said that.
'Emotion' in my style of trading is totally irrellevent, mine or the punters'. It doesn't interest me at all.

[stueytrader]

But, I think the point is that more mechanical statistical factors (as I presume you mean) may often be underpinned by emotion in the market.

As I say it depends how we define emotion - one way is simply 'the decisions made by individual investors' or the 'process and goals' or 'reasons' they make each action. Not quite the same as 'tears of happiness and joy' for another definition

[stueytrader]

Still fair enough to decide that you don't have interest in any of those factors though, and simply trade numbers of course.