I think that depends on your 'system', elapsed time isn't as significant as sample size. If you have a system which trades half a dozen horses in every race, then I'd expect it to be profitable almost daily and a week without profit would probably see it consigned to the bin. eg. in the last 5 days one of my 'systems' which operates on independant 4 markets, has traded almost 1500 selections, more than enough to prove it's viability. If a system trades 3 horses a day then you'll probably take months to prove anything.
beating the bookies using data science
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
The thread is about data science which by definition disregards emotions. And if you're trading situations rather than outcomes, watching or at least having live info is crucial. I haven't got the slightest interest in horses or 95% of any sport, so watching it has no impact whatsoever on my decision making.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:45 pmI am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.
watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.
If you care about the outcomes then fair enough, but if your emotions impact on your judgement to such an extent that you can't watch it without it being detremental, then the problem isn't the data/pictures/info, it's you.
Yes but I believe this topic is about betting and not tradingShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:37 pmI think that depends on your 'system', elapsed time isn't as significant as sample size. If you have a system which trades half a dozen horses in every race, then I'd expect it to be profitable almost daily and a week without profit would probably see it consigned to the bin. eg. in the last 5 days one of my 'systems' which operates on independant 4 markets, has traded almost 1500 selections, more than enough to prove it's viability. If a system trades 3 horses a day then you'll probably take months to prove anything.
-
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Interesting points about emotions, though perhaps we shouldn't also forget that sometimes markets are 'emotion-based' too. i.e. other punters moving markets based emotionally.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:04 pmThe thread is about data science which by definition disregards emotions. And if you're trading situations rather than outcomes, watching or at least having live info is crucial. I haven't got the slightest interest in horses or 95% of any sport, so watching it has no impact whatsoever on my decision making.SeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:45 pmI am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.
watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.
If you care about the outcomes then fair enough, but if your emotions impact on your judgement to such an extent that you can't watch it without it being detremental, then the problem isn't the data/pictures/info, it's you.
- firlandsfarm
- Posts: 2722
- Joined: Sat May 03, 2014 8:20 am
stueytrader wrote: ↑Sun May 26, 2019 8:57 amAren't all markets based on emotions in the sense that it's just the opinions of people if what the price 'should ' be.ShaunWhite wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:04 pmSeaHorseRacing wrote: ↑Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:45 pmI am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.
watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.
Interesting points about emotions, though perhaps we shouldn't also forget that sometimes markets are 'emotion-based' too. i.e. other punters moving markets based emotionally.
I guess it also depends on how efficient the market is. There will always be opportunities where there are inefficient prices
-
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
I suppose it depends also how we define 'emotion', but generally I agree with that point above.
- ShaunWhite
- Posts: 9731
- Joined: Sat Sep 03, 2016 3:42 am
Dunno where you got that quote above from, I've never said that.
'Emotion' in my style of trading is totally irrellevent, mine or the punters'. It doesn't interest me at all.
'Emotion' in my style of trading is totally irrellevent, mine or the punters'. It doesn't interest me at all.
-
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
But, I think the point is that more mechanical statistical factors (as I presume you mean) may often be underpinned by emotion in the market.
As I say it depends how we define emotion - one way is simply 'the decisions made by individual investors' or the 'process and goals' or 'reasons' they make each action. Not quite the same as 'tears of happiness and joy' for another definition
As I say it depends how we define emotion - one way is simply 'the decisions made by individual investors' or the 'process and goals' or 'reasons' they make each action. Not quite the same as 'tears of happiness and joy' for another definition
-
- Posts: 863
- Joined: Tue Dec 15, 2015 6:47 pm
Still fair enough to decide that you don't have interest in any of those factors though, and simply trade numbers of course.