beating the bookies using data science

Any markets not covered in the other boards
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EyePeaSea
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aperson wrote:
Wed Oct 25, 2017 5:30 pm
article on this in this weeks new scientist.
https://www.newscientist.com/article/21 ... inst-them/


I haven't read the NS for years, but I remember the quality of the writing was better.
For example:
NewScientist wrote:Mean odds of 2 to 1 suggest the bookies collectively think this reflects fair odds for that outcome.
IMO - that quote from the article is tosh. Odds of 2 to 1 mean that the bookies want to discourage bets to balance their book, as much as (or more than) the fact that they think the horse actually has a 2 to 1 chance of winning.

No?
benjamin28
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Hello there,

Mathematicians had already developed bookie-beating models that attempt to predict the outcome of sports matches, but they are difficult to devise and don’t always perform consistently. Lisandro Kaunitz at the University of Tokyo and his colleagues wanted to know if a more direct approach would work: using the bookmakers’ own odds against them.
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SeaHorseRacing
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Funnily enough...

There is a few online tipping/system sites that are so highly over bet that if you bet opposite to what they advice you can make a profit.

I would argue that the majority of all horses in the top 3 betting of a racing market are way over bet and in a lot of circumstances just betting every other runner in the race at sp is profitable.

Picking winners is pointless, it really is.
It is all about price, and some never, ever grasp that.
Backing a horse at 2/1 when it has an sp of Evens can still be a very bad bet too. And a lot of the times 2/1 is still very poor value.

Price, price, price and nothing else will make you profitable betting on sports.
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Naffman
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People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that, which I suppose leads people on to backing shorter priced runners (lower variance and higher SR)
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SeaHorseRacing
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:59 am
People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that, which I suppose leads people on to backing shorter priced runners (lower variance and higher SR)
I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

The only way you can profit long term is through value and watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.

When in reality you just want to take a value price above the events actually chances of happening.
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ShaunWhite
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:59 am
People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that
I think that depends on your 'system', elapsed time isn't as significant as sample size. If you have a system which trades half a dozen horses in every race, then I'd expect it to be profitable almost daily and a week without profit would probably see it consigned to the bin. eg. in the last 5 days one of my 'systems' which operates on independant 4 markets, has traded almost 1500 selections, more than enough to prove it's viability. If a system trades 3 horses a day then you'll probably take months to prove anything.
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ShaunWhite
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SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:45 pm
I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.
The thread is about data science which by definition disregards emotions. And if you're trading situations rather than outcomes, watching or at least having live info is crucial. I haven't got the slightest interest in horses or 95% of any sport, so watching it has no impact whatsoever on my decision making.

If you care about the outcomes then fair enough, but if your emotions impact on your judgement to such an extent that you can't watch it without it being detremental, then the problem isn't the data/pictures/info, it's you.
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Naffman
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 2:37 pm
Naffman wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:59 am
People expect a system to be profitable every week too, it just doesn't happen like that
I think that depends on your 'system', elapsed time isn't as significant as sample size. If you have a system which trades half a dozen horses in every race, then I'd expect it to be profitable almost daily and a week without profit would probably see it consigned to the bin. eg. in the last 5 days one of my 'systems' which operates on independant 4 markets, has traded almost 1500 selections, more than enough to prove it's viability. If a system trades 3 horses a day then you'll probably take months to prove anything.
Yes but I believe this topic is about betting and not trading
stueytrader
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ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:04 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:45 pm
I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.
The thread is about data science which by definition disregards emotions. And if you're trading situations rather than outcomes, watching or at least having live info is crucial. I haven't got the slightest interest in horses or 95% of any sport, so watching it has no impact whatsoever on my decision making.

If you care about the outcomes then fair enough, but if your emotions impact on your judgement to such an extent that you can't watch it without it being detremental, then the problem isn't the data/pictures/info, it's you.
Interesting points about emotions, though perhaps we shouldn't also forget that sometimes markets are 'emotion-based' too. i.e. other punters moving markets based emotionally.
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firlandsfarm
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Naffman wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 11:59 am
People expect a system to be profitable every week too
I'm a systems man and one thing I quickly picked up on was that you need a portfolio of systems to smooth the graph. You wouldn't buy just one share, you buy a portfolio … it's no different.
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Archangel
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stueytrader wrote:
Sun May 26, 2019 8:57 am
ShaunWhite wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 3:04 pm
SeaHorseRacing wrote:
Mon Apr 29, 2019 1:45 pm
I am also a believer in watching sporting events when you are betting has nothing but a negative impact.

watching a sporting event usually implements the meaning of wanting your horse or team to win on order for you to get paid.

Interesting points about emotions, though perhaps we shouldn't also forget that sometimes markets are 'emotion-based' too. i.e. other punters moving markets based emotionally.
Aren't all markets based on emotions in the sense that it's just the opinions of people if what the price 'should ' be.
I guess it also depends on how efficient the market is. There will always be opportunities where there are inefficient prices
stueytrader
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I suppose it depends also how we define 'emotion', but generally I agree with that point above.
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ShaunWhite
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Dunno where you got that quote above from, I've never said that.
'Emotion' in my style of trading is totally irrellevent, mine or the punters'. It doesn't interest me at all.
stueytrader
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But, I think the point is that more mechanical statistical factors (as I presume you mean) may often be underpinned by emotion in the market.

As I say it depends how we define emotion - one way is simply 'the decisions made by individual investors' or the 'process and goals' or 'reasons' they make each action. Not quite the same as 'tears of happiness and joy' for another definition :D
stueytrader
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Still fair enough to decide that you don't have interest in any of those factors though, and simply trade numbers of course.
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