Other markets : AFL Round 3

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Shamrock
Posts: 197
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:41 am
Location: Perth Wester Australia

Fri Apr 06, 2018 10:35 am

Carlton v Collingwood at the MCG tonight. Interesting game, both losing their two opening games and giving away big scores. Collingwood have not kicked stright for a long time and stand at 21 goals / 20 points scored for the first two games with Carlton showing 24 / 18. Both teams have leaked goals. Two teams without a win this season and I think the over/under 174.5 is a bit low. Happy to take the overs and hope for a good fast start. Might spec Carlton for a lay later if they hit 2.70.

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Shamrock
Posts: 197
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:41 am
Location: Perth Wester Australia

Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:31 pm

Just got there with 176 points scored, very stright kicking. Carlton came out flying and the 2.70 was a good back to lay with Carlton at 1.8 after hitting the halfway mark of the first quarter. Never in it again.

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LeTiss
Posts: 4431
Joined: Fri May 08, 2009 6:04 pm

Fri Apr 06, 2018 1:56 pm

Looking to trade St Kilda v Adelaide tomorrow. I tend to follow St Kilda anyway due to "Oh when the Saints...." (obviously!)

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Shamrock
Posts: 197
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:41 am
Location: Perth Wester Australia

Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:56 am

Saturday looks like a great day, with the exception of the Port v Brisbane game the other 4 could do antyhing.

Melbourne look short at 1.34, they tend to come and go in games, if they play out the whole game should win easy, good to lay under 1.15 in play.

Gold Coast sold there home game to Freo, hence the reason Freo are Favourite. Two from two for GC but only against North Melbourne and Carlton. Should really be a blowout to Freo, 40 plus.

Adelaide at 1.35 away from home against a hot and cold St KIlda who displayed dreadful kicking last game. Don't know what to make of the 187.5 over under line. Might just leave this game alone, though happy to Lay Adelaide if short at quarter time.

Game of the round Sydney v GWS. This should have plenty of price moves in play. The Giants killed the bulldogs in round 1 and got over the Pies last game, The Swans won in Perth and then got rolled by Port at home. Two big teams on a very small ground. Even as a die hard Swannie I think they are way to short. $2.30 on GWS looks massive odds. I have to lay Sydney as I reckon they are at 1.85.

gazuty
Posts: 1197
Joined: Sun Jun 26, 2011 11:03 am

Sat Apr 07, 2018 1:03 am

Shamrock wrote:
Sat Apr 07, 2018 12:56 am
Saturday looks like a great day, with the exception of the Port v Brisbane game the other 4 could do antyhing.

Melbourne look short at 1.34, they tend to come and go in games, if they play out the whole game should win easy, good to lay under 1.15 in play.

Gold Coast sold there home game to Freo, hence the reason Freo are Favourite. Two from two for GC but only against North Melbourne and Carlton. Should really be a blowout to Freo, 40 plus.

Adelaide at 1.35 away from home against a hot and cold St KIlda who displayed dreadful kicking last game. Don't know what to make of the 187.5 over under line. Might just leave this game alone, though happy to Lay Adelaide if short at quarter time.

Game of the round Sydney v GWS. This should have plenty of price moves in play. The Giants killed the bulldogs in round 1 and got over the Pies last game, The Swans won in Perth and then got rolled by Port at home. Two big teams on a very small ground. Even as a die hard Swannie I think they are way to short. $2.30 on GWS looks massive odds. I have to lay Sydney as I reckon they are at 1.85.
Saints - expect reversion to the mean. Not saying Saints will win, but Adelaide could drift during the match.

Swans v GWS - I'll be there cheering on GWS (can't understand why they are not favourites, surely will lead at some point and drop below 2).

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LeTiss
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Sat Apr 07, 2018 10:21 am

Significant money in the final hour for Adelaide

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Shamrock
Posts: 197
Joined: Thu Sep 30, 2010 11:41 am
Location: Perth Wester Australia

Sun Apr 08, 2018 2:41 am

No marching for the Saints.

Never got to watch the Sydney - GWS game. But would imagine they were under $2 early in the second quarter. Good trade.


Richmond and the Hawks looks set to be a ripper. Happy to lay the tigers.
Not much to do in the second game, Bulldogs start good and then fade, a bit of a risk though.
Last game of the week should be a ripper as well, plenty of movement in this one.

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